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18/03/2005 | Argentina: Kirchner's "Economic Terrorism" Continues

De Nuestra Redacción

President Kirchner's successful debt renegotiation process seems to have convinced him that he can ignore economic realities and terrorize Argentine businesses. Demonstrating yet again his lack of economic understanding, the president's call to boycott Shell products could backfire.

 

Indeed, just when the country is in desperate need of investment (foreign and domestic), Kirchner's populist gesture, while geared to Argentine voters, could mark the beginning of his political downfall.

We will not defend Shell's business actions—its recent problems with the reporting of reserves or its activities in Nigeria are well known—the company has the right to increase prices when it sees fit and customers have the right to not buy its products if they are too expensive. In fact, if one looks at the evolution of the gasoline market in Argentina during the last several years, there is little for Shell to celebrate.

Of course, President Kirchner's position is that because Shell earned "too much" money during the currency convertibility years, it is only fair that the oil giant should lose money today. It is true that the Argentine downstream market is not competitive; rather, it is an oligopoly where four firms control almost 90% of the gasoline supply. But Shell Argentina does not have upstream facilities (i.e., petroleum extraction)—as opposed to its competitors, Repsol-YPF and Petrobras—and thus cannot take advantage of rising oil export prices.

Taxes on crude petroleum exports are so high today—at 45%—that Repsol-YPF is better off refining all the petroleum it can get its hands on and dumping it in the domestic market or exporting it (gasoline exports have a 5% tax). Indeed, it makes no sense for them to raise the domestic price of gasoline. Furthermore, Repsol-YPF also produces diesel oil, which has a 20% export tax. Thus, the firm is better off by selling diesel oil in the domestic market, while Shell must import it. Meanwhile, the average pump price for a liter of gasoline in Argentina is US$0.643. Of this, the government collects US$0.294 in taxes, US$0.058 is the dealer margin, and US$0.291 is the net prices to the supplier. In the United States, average net price is US$0.33 per liter, while federal, state, and local taxes totaled approximately US$0.15.

Thus, the oil industry in Argentina looks quite overtaxed compared to the United States, while the margin for U.S. petroleum firms is higher than that for Argentine firms, at least in gasoline. Clearly, the "windfall profits" are being collected by the Argentine government rather than by the petroleum firms. As such, Shell's move is basically one of survival rather than a move by a firm abusing its oligopoly powers, as the Kirchner administration is trying to assert.

All of this means that the country is on a collision course with economic growth, and if the Kirchner administration does not alter its course, the fallout could be massive. The real instability in Argentina flows from a president who irresponsibly calls for a product boycott against a firm just trying to remain in business. This is similar to what has been happening with the country's public utilities over the last three years, as they have tried convincing the government to let them increase prices.

Although this sort of "economic terrorism" has worked wonders for President Kirchner's popularity in the past, the medium- and long-term consequences in these instances will be disastrous. Indeed, any foreign firm planning to invest in Argentina will have to seriously consider the risks of such political actions being repeated.

The real frustration for President Kirchner is that the measures he has taken to control inflation—e.g., higher taxes on exports and caps on public-utility prices—are no longer working, and inflation is finally starting to react to the devaluation of the currency. Thus, many more crises will emerge as Argentina moves ahead with President Kirchner's misguided economic "theories."

Meanwhile, the conflict with Shell has made it clear that the Kirchner administration continues to enjoy the support of an important sector of the population: the "piqueteros," a radical political movement of Argentina's unemployed. The piqueteros have come out in full force to enforce the president's boycott, taking over Shell gas stations and preventing customers from buying gasoline. Indeed, Kirchner is behaving increasingly like President Chavez of Venezuela.

Offnews.info (Argentina)

 


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15/01/2006|
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14/01/2006|
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14/01/2006|
13/01/2006|
10/01/2006|
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29/12/2005|
29/12/2005|
27/12/2005|
27/12/2005|
25/12/2005|
22/12/2005|
21/12/2005|
20/12/2005|
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05/12/2005|
29/11/2005|
27/11/2005|
19/11/2005|
18/11/2005|
08/11/2005|
07/11/2005|
05/11/2005|
31/10/2005|
31/10/2005|
28/10/2005|
25/10/2005|
17/10/2005|
09/10/2005|
28/08/2005|
28/08/2005|
20/08/2005|
04/08/2005|
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04/08/2005|
31/07/2005|
31/07/2005|
28/07/2005|
22/07/2005|
10/07/2005|
07/07/2005|
07/07/2005|
05/07/2005|
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27/06/2005|
20/06/2005|
18/06/2005|
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15/06/2005|
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15/06/2005|
07/06/2005|
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01/06/2005|
18/05/2005|
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14/05/2005|
14/05/2005|
12/05/2005|
10/05/2005|
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29/04/2005|
29/04/2005|
28/04/2005|
27/04/2005|
27/04/2005|
23/04/2005|
19/04/2005|
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17/04/2005|
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16/04/2005|
15/04/2005|
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15/04/2005|
15/04/2005|
14/04/2005|
14/04/2005|
14/04/2005|
14/04/2005|
12/04/2005|
12/04/2005|
12/04/2005|
12/04/2005|
12/04/2005|
12/04/2005|
12/04/2005|
12/04/2005|
10/04/2005|
10/04/2005|
07/04/2005|
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31/03/2005|
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31/03/2005|
30/03/2005|
30/03/2005|
30/03/2005|
30/03/2005|
30/03/2005|
30/03/2005|
27/03/2005|
27/03/2005|
26/03/2005|
26/03/2005|
26/03/2005|
26/03/2005|
23/03/2005|
23/03/2005|
08/03/2005|
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03/03/2005|
03/03/2005|
28/02/2005|
28/02/2005|
27/02/2005|
27/02/2005|
27/02/2005|
27/02/2005|
27/02/2005|
27/02/2005|
26/02/2005|
26/02/2005|
26/02/2005|
26/02/2005|
26/02/2005|
26/02/2005|
26/02/2005|
26/02/2005|
26/02/2005|
26/02/2005|
26/02/2005|
26/02/2005|
26/02/2005|
26/02/2005|
25/02/2005|
25/02/2005|
17/02/2005|
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14/02/2005|
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01/02/2005|
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01/02/2005|
01/02/2005|
01/02/2005|
31/01/2005|
31/01/2005|
30/01/2005|
30/01/2005|
30/01/2005|
30/01/2005|
30/01/2005|
30/01/2005|
30/01/2005|
30/01/2005|
29/01/2005|
29/01/2005|
27/01/2005|
27/01/2005|
27/01/2005|
27/01/2005|
26/01/2005|
26/01/2005|
15/01/2005|
15/01/2005|
15/01/2005|
15/01/2005|
12/01/2005|
12/01/2005|
09/01/2005|
09/01/2005|
09/01/2005|
09/01/2005|
09/01/2005|
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09/01/2005|
09/01/2005|
07/01/2005|
07/01/2005|
05/01/2005|
05/01/2005|
04/01/2005|
04/01/2005|
27/12/2004|
27/12/2004|
27/12/2004|
27/12/2004|
27/12/2004|
25/12/2004|
25/12/2004|
19/12/2004|
19/12/2004|
19/12/2004|
19/12/2004|
19/12/2004|
18/12/2004|
18/12/2004|
13/12/2004|
13/12/2004|
12/12/2004|
12/12/2004|
08/12/2004|
08/12/2004|
06/12/2004|
06/12/2004|
06/12/2004|
06/12/2004|
06/12/2004|
05/12/2004|
05/12/2004|
04/12/2004|
04/12/2004|
04/12/2004|
04/12/2004|
02/12/2004|
02/12/2004|
29/11/2004|
28/11/2004|
28/11/2004|
28/11/2004|
28/11/2004|
28/11/2004|
19/11/2004|
19/11/2004|
18/11/2004|
18/11/2004|
12/10/2004|
10/10/2004|
10/10/2004|
03/10/2004|
24/08/2004|
24/08/2004|
14/08/2004|
14/08/2004|
26/04/2004|
26/04/2004|
11/04/2004|
11/04/2004|
04/02/2004|
04/02/2004|
10/12/2003|
10/12/2003|
05/11/2003|
05/11/2003|
10/10/2003|
06/10/2003|
01/08/2003|
01/08/2003|
28/07/2003|
28/07/2003|
28/07/2003|
28/07/2003|
23/07/2003|
09/07/2003|
24/06/2003|
24/06/2003|
18/06/2003|
18/06/2003|
03/06/2003|
01/06/2003|
17/03/2003|
17/03/2003|
22/02/2003|
22/02/2003|
23/01/2003|
23/01/2003|
15/01/2003|
01/01/2003|
01/01/2003|
01/01/2003|
01/01/2003|
01/08/2002|
01/08/2002|
01/08/2002|
01/08/2002|
19/07/2002|
19/07/2002|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House