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28/01/2006 | Brazil and Mexico: Twin Engines of Growth?

De Nuestra Redacción

World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2006

 

Moderator Felipe Larraín Bascuñán, Professor of Economics, Catholic University of Chile, started the discussion by mentioning several economic key points related to the performances of Brazil and Mexico in 2005. In both countries, inflation was lower than previous years and both nations have recently seen an easing of their monetary policies. He then focused on similarities and common challenges. Both economies are similar in overall size, representing about US$ 600 billion. Both countries are feeling the pressure of competition from China and India, although this seems to be a bigger problem for Mexico. Another common feature is low foreign investment. Lastly, both nations will hold presidential elections in 2006.

David Abney, President, UPS International, UPS, USA, mentioned the modernization of customs as one of the main concerns for his company. In Brazil, customs procedures are still manually based, whereas Mexico has taken steps to modernize them. José Antonio Fernández Carbajal, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Fomento Económico Mexicano (FEMSA), Mexico, emphasized the need to consider how Mexico and Brazil can offer added value. According to L. Enrique García, President and Chief Executive Officer, Corporacion Andina de Fomento (CAF), Venezuela, growth in both countries has to increase and the challenge is to get both economies growing at more than 4-5% a year. On the other hand, Mexico and Brazil have lost ground in international competitiveness rankings.

José Natividad González Parás, Governor of the State of Nuevo Leon, Mexico, wondered why everybody is currently talking about China, India and Korea and much less about Brazil and Mexico. José C. Grubisich Filho, Chief Executive Officer, Braskem, Brazil, said there is disappointment among Brazilians about their country not receiving greater attention on the global agenda. He thinks people in Latin America lack an ambitious vision to change the current situation. According to Rafael del Pino, Chairman, Ferrovial, Spain, there is an abundance of capital to be invested in infrastructure, but also many places to invest. A company like his considers factors such as political stability and developed financial markets in making investment decisions.

Ernesto Zedillo Ponce de Leon, Director, Yale Center for the Study of Globalization, Yale University, USA; Member of the Foundation Board of the World Economic Forum, reminded participants that Latin America used to be a centre of attention. Not being in the spotlight is not necessarily bad. It can also be good news since this lack of attention reflects the region's recent economic and political stability. But there is no reason to be complacent. Stability alone is not enough. Stronger economic growth is needed. He pointed out that although India is one of the stars of the World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2006, the true size of the Indian economy is roughly equal to that of Mexico, but the Latin American country has one-tenth of India's population.

Table discussions followed and the outcomes were then summarized. Abney pointed out that Mexico and Brazil cannot compete against China and India in terms of labour costs, but there is a need for both countries to develop human capital, to invest in education and research and development. Reforms are needed and doing business has to be made easier. Carbajal said that access to NAFTA is critical for Brazil. Both countries can also complement one another in the sector of raw materials. According to Garcia, Brazil and Mexico have a responsibility when it comes to regional leadership and should collaborate rather than compete. Poor income distribution is another challenge and the right approach to solve the issue is to aim at good-quality growth, not just growth. The mismatch between education skills and the industry's demands was one of the topics discussed at González Parás's table. And while governments still have to deliver on reforms, the private sector can take more concrete action to attract foreign direct investment.

According to Luiz Fernando Furlan, Minister of Development, Industry and Trade of Brazil, Mexico and Brazil are losing momentum, although both nations offer significant assets such as peace with their neighbours, a single national language, democracy and energy self-sufficiency. Del Pino spoke about Brazil's potential in natural resources, biotechnology and design, while Zedillo Ponce de Leon believed that in order to grow, a country can either invest more or become more productive. Achieving greater productivity becomes a political problem. In his opinion, even when policies are right, they may not be implemented in the right way, hence the need for efficient institutions.

Larraín Bascuñán concluded that Mexico and Brazil's current economic growth is not satisfactory and this is not the time to feel complacent. Better skills are needed to improve the quality of the labour force. There was a broad consensus in the room that this year's presidential elections in Mexico and Brazil will not bring drastic political shifts. According to Larraín Bascuñán, this is not necessarily bad, since the new governments of both countries will be able to build on their predecessors' actions.


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29/12/2005|
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27/12/2005|
27/12/2005|
25/12/2005|
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29/11/2005|
27/11/2005|
19/11/2005|
18/11/2005|
08/11/2005|
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31/10/2005|
31/10/2005|
28/10/2005|
25/10/2005|
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09/10/2005|
28/08/2005|
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31/07/2005|
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28/07/2005|
22/07/2005|
10/07/2005|
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27/06/2005|
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15/04/2005|
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14/04/2005|
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14/04/2005|
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12/04/2005|
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12/04/2005|
12/04/2005|
10/04/2005|
10/04/2005|
07/04/2005|
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30/03/2005|
30/03/2005|
30/03/2005|
30/03/2005|
30/03/2005|
30/03/2005|
27/03/2005|
27/03/2005|
26/03/2005|
26/03/2005|
26/03/2005|
26/03/2005|
23/03/2005|
23/03/2005|
18/03/2005|
18/03/2005|
08/03/2005|
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28/02/2005|
28/02/2005|
27/02/2005|
27/02/2005|
27/02/2005|
27/02/2005|
27/02/2005|
27/02/2005|
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26/02/2005|
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26/02/2005|
25/02/2005|
25/02/2005|
17/02/2005|
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14/02/2005|
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01/02/2005|
01/02/2005|
31/01/2005|
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30/01/2005|
30/01/2005|
30/01/2005|
30/01/2005|
30/01/2005|
30/01/2005|
30/01/2005|
30/01/2005|
29/01/2005|
29/01/2005|
27/01/2005|
27/01/2005|
27/01/2005|
27/01/2005|
26/01/2005|
26/01/2005|
15/01/2005|
15/01/2005|
15/01/2005|
15/01/2005|
12/01/2005|
12/01/2005|
09/01/2005|
09/01/2005|
09/01/2005|
09/01/2005|
09/01/2005|
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09/01/2005|
09/01/2005|
07/01/2005|
07/01/2005|
05/01/2005|
05/01/2005|
04/01/2005|
04/01/2005|
27/12/2004|
27/12/2004|
27/12/2004|
27/12/2004|
27/12/2004|
25/12/2004|
25/12/2004|
19/12/2004|
19/12/2004|
19/12/2004|
19/12/2004|
19/12/2004|
18/12/2004|
18/12/2004|
13/12/2004|
13/12/2004|
12/12/2004|
12/12/2004|
08/12/2004|
08/12/2004|
06/12/2004|
06/12/2004|
06/12/2004|
06/12/2004|
06/12/2004|
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05/12/2004|
04/12/2004|
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04/12/2004|
04/12/2004|
02/12/2004|
02/12/2004|
29/11/2004|
28/11/2004|
28/11/2004|
28/11/2004|
28/11/2004|
28/11/2004|
19/11/2004|
19/11/2004|
18/11/2004|
18/11/2004|
12/10/2004|
10/10/2004|
10/10/2004|
03/10/2004|
24/08/2004|
24/08/2004|
14/08/2004|
14/08/2004|
26/04/2004|
26/04/2004|
11/04/2004|
11/04/2004|
04/02/2004|
04/02/2004|
10/12/2003|
10/12/2003|
05/11/2003|
05/11/2003|
10/10/2003|
06/10/2003|
01/08/2003|
01/08/2003|
28/07/2003|
28/07/2003|
28/07/2003|
28/07/2003|
23/07/2003|
09/07/2003|
24/06/2003|
24/06/2003|
18/06/2003|
18/06/2003|
03/06/2003|
01/06/2003|
17/03/2003|
17/03/2003|
22/02/2003|
22/02/2003|
23/01/2003|
23/01/2003|
15/01/2003|
01/01/2003|
01/01/2003|
01/01/2003|
01/01/2003|
01/08/2002|
01/08/2002|
01/08/2002|
01/08/2002|
19/07/2002|
19/07/2002|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House