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02/01/2006 | Al Qaeda: Here and there, Irak update

De Nuestra Redacción

Al Qaeda in Iraq said in an Internet statement Thursday that the movement has waged "a new attack" against the Jewish state by launching 10 Katyusha missiles from Lebanon into northern Israel. The claim of responsibility for the attack was posted on a jihadist Web site that regularly includes postings by Iraqi insurgent groups.

 

It was signed by the information office of al Qaeda in Iraq and said that the attack was a commitment by the mujahideen to the oath by Osama bin Laden, "which the [Jews] and idolaters' servants in Muslim countries failed to grasp." The next attack, the group vowed, would be "harsher and bitterer."

Though it could not be authenticated, the statement likely refers to a Dec. 27 attack in which nine Katyusha rockets were fired from Lebanon into northern Israel. More importantly, the statement marks the first claim of responsibility for an attack against Israel by al Qaeda.

Before we delve further, it is important to understand what we mean when referring to this jihadist mammoth known as al Qaeda. The al Qaeda of today is certainly not the al Qaeda of the Sept. 11 attacks. The group, under the leadership of bin Laden and second-in-command Ayman al-Zawahiri, originally aimed to operate as "the base" to inspire the rise of jihadist movements across the globe. Things seemed to be going al Qaeda's way in 2003, when the power vacuum left in Iraq provided the movement with an ideal breeding ground to expand from its headquarters in Pakistan.

As time wore on, however, it soon became evident that the jihadist group's goal of revolutionizing the Muslim world through the mass rejection of Western influence and imposition of Islamic rule was not going according to plan. After an action-packed summer of attacks in 2004, al Qaeda's cell in the Saudi kingdom became largely defunct after Saudi security forces eliminated close to half a dozen of its operational commanders. Bin Laden's lengthy silence -- he was last heard from in a Dec. 27, 2004, audiotaped communiqué -- is now raising questions as to whether he is even alive. As most recently revealed through the July London bombings, attacks beyond the Muslim world no longer match the impact of Sept. 11 or the Madrid bombings. And though serious complications still exist, a government has risen in Baghdad and Sunni nationalist insurgents are increasingly distancing themselves from Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's network in Iraq. In sum, al Qaeda is experiencing a massive devolution into low-intensity insurgencies in select parts of the Muslim world.

If al-Zarqawi is ultimately eliminated, his Iraqi branch will be severely degraded, increasing the pressure on what is left of al Qaeda's original leadership to uphold the jihadist threat. Setting up shop in Jordan under the watch of the Hashemite kingdom's relatively adept security and intelligence agencies continues to be a challenge for al Qaeda's Iraqi branch. Syria has become increasingly inhospitable as well, as the Alawite-Baathist regime has no interest in seeing itself become a new al Qaeda target. In fact, the Syrian government is actively working behind the scenes with the United States -- offering cooperation in containing the Iraqi insurgency in return for certain concessions related to maintaining its presence in Lebanon.

Faced with this list of obstacles, al Qaeda's aspiring branch in Iraq likely views Lebanon and its ties to Palestinian militancy against Israel as its most viable option for survival. Fledgling al Qaeda cells have already taken root in certain Palestinian refugee camps, such as the Ain al-Hilweh camp, in Lebanon's anarchic south. Still, staging attacks from Lebanon against Israel carries a fair share of complications for any start-up al Qaeda wing. If the Thursday claim of responsibility is actually reliable, it indicates that al Qaeda's network in Iraq has succeeded in penetrating the Hezbollah-controlled Shiite heartland in southern Lebanon -- a task that would be extremely difficult for al-Zarqawi's vehemently anti-Shiite movement to pull off without reaching some sort of accommodation with Hezbollah. Hooking up with Palestinian resistance groups to target Israel could help ensure al Qaeda's longevity, but jihadists could face considerable opposition from Hamas, the most organized militant movement in the Palestinian territories. Hamas has traditionally resisted being co-opted into the jihadist movement to avoid internationalizing its conflict against Israel and to protect its political interests.

All signs indicate that the threat of jihadism will linger on, albeit in a weakened and localized fashion. Attacks are likely to spring up in the Levant with attempts to exploit the Palestinian militant scene, but will be difficult to sustain. As indicated by recent suicide bombings in Bangladesh and the uptick in attacks in Afghanistan, local militant Islamist cells in the South Asian theatre will also prolong the jihadist movement. These attacks may all bear al Qaeda's signature, but they represent the decentralization of jihadism and the significant loss of tactical abilities that inevitably accompanies the movement's devolution.
Update Jan 01, 2006
Insurgents in Iraq rang in the New Year in with a wave of bombings in Baghdad, attacks in northern Iraq, and an attack on the country’s oil infrastructure Jan. 1. The surge in attacks is part of trend of increased insurgent activity since the Dec. 15 elections.

The period leading up to the elections saw a decreased level of attacks as Sunni nationalist insurgents enforced an informal cease-fire to allow for greater Sunni participation in the political process. The jihadists insurgents, heeding warnings from the nationalists, also refrained from significant activity during that time -- most of the violence during the election period was between rival Iraqi political factions. With the end of the cease-fire and the relaxing of increased coalition and Iraqi security measures put in place to safeguard the elections, the attacks are again approaching pre-election levels.

In Baghdad, insurgents deployed at least nine car bombs, which detonated in the space of less than three hours during the morning. In addition, there were at least seven major attacks against U.S. and Iraqi forces in northern Iraq.

Insurgents also continued their campaign against Iraq’s domestic oil infrastructure, which had declined in the second half of 2005, but appears to be picking up again. Attacks on refineries in Baghdad and the northern town of Bayji have disrupted energy services and caused fuel prices to rise -- which in turn led to protests in the capital and the northern oil center of Kirkuk. Previous campaigns against Iraq’s domestic energy supply were aimed at disrupting the government and fostering an atmosphere of chaos, but these latest attacks -- likely the work of Sunni nationalist insurgents -- may be directed at gaining leverage for the Sunni factions over the majority Shia elements of government.

Iraq Update


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

BAGHDAD - Two Iraqi soldiers are wounded when a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device strikes an Iraq Army patrol.

BAGHDAD - A suicide car bomber wounds two Iraqi civilians about two miles away from an attack on an Iraqi Army patrol.

BAGHDAD - A vehicle-borne improvised explosive device explodes as Iraqi police attempt to defuse it, but causes no casualties.

BAGHDAD - A vehicle-borne improvised explosive device explodes near a restaurant, but causes no casualties.

BAGHDAD - A vehicle-borne improvised explosive device detonates in a parking lot, wounding one Iraqi civilian.

BAGHDAD - A vehicle-borne improvised explosive device detonates in eastern Baghdad, but causes no casualties.

BAGHDAD - Eight civilians are wounded by a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device.

BAGHDAD - A vehicle-borne improvised explosive device detonates near an amusement park, but causes no casualties.

BAGHDAD - Iraqi police successfully detonate a vehicle-borne improvised explosive device in a controlled explosion.

BAGHDAD - An improvised explosive device detonates on a pipeline supplying crude oil to the Dora refinery in southern Baghdad, causing a disruption in the supply of crude to the capital.

MOSUL - Approximately a dozen gunmen attack an Iraqi police checkpoint, killing one civilian. Three Iraqi police are wounded during the attack.

TIKRIT - A suicide car bomber detonates near a U.S. military patrol, injuring six Iraqi civilians. There were no reports of U.S. casualties from the attack.

KIRKUK - A vehicle-borne improvised explosive device targets a U.S. convoy, but does not cause casualties.

KIRKUK - A vehicle-borne improvised explosive device strikes an Iraqi police patrol, wounding three civilians.

BALAD - A roadside vehicle-borne improvised explosive device strikes an Iraqi Army patrol, killing one Iraqi soldier and wounding three others in the Ishaki district.

BAYJI - An Iraqi civilian is killed and another wounded when an improvised explosive device detonates near a U.S. patrol.

BAYJI - A vehicle-borne improvised explosive device detonates near a U.S. patrol, wounding sixteen Iraqi civilians.

Source: Stratfor

Offnews.info (Argentina)

 


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28/02/2005|
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30/01/2005|
30/01/2005|
30/01/2005|
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30/01/2005|
30/01/2005|
30/01/2005|
29/01/2005|
29/01/2005|
27/01/2005|
27/01/2005|
27/01/2005|
27/01/2005|
26/01/2005|
26/01/2005|
15/01/2005|
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12/01/2005|
12/01/2005|
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07/01/2005|
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27/12/2004|
27/12/2004|
27/12/2004|
27/12/2004|
27/12/2004|
25/12/2004|
25/12/2004|
19/12/2004|
19/12/2004|
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13/12/2004|
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12/12/2004|
08/12/2004|
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02/12/2004|
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29/11/2004|
28/11/2004|
28/11/2004|
28/11/2004|
28/11/2004|
28/11/2004|
19/11/2004|
19/11/2004|
18/11/2004|
18/11/2004|
12/10/2004|
10/10/2004|
10/10/2004|
03/10/2004|
24/08/2004|
24/08/2004|
14/08/2004|
14/08/2004|
26/04/2004|
26/04/2004|
11/04/2004|
11/04/2004|
04/02/2004|
04/02/2004|
10/12/2003|
10/12/2003|
05/11/2003|
05/11/2003|
10/10/2003|
06/10/2003|
01/08/2003|
01/08/2003|
28/07/2003|
28/07/2003|
28/07/2003|
28/07/2003|
23/07/2003|
09/07/2003|
24/06/2003|
24/06/2003|
18/06/2003|
18/06/2003|
03/06/2003|
01/06/2003|
17/03/2003|
17/03/2003|
22/02/2003|
22/02/2003|
23/01/2003|
23/01/2003|
15/01/2003|
01/01/2003|
01/01/2003|
01/01/2003|
01/01/2003|
01/08/2002|
01/08/2002|
01/08/2002|
01/08/2002|
19/07/2002|
19/07/2002|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House