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07/05/2006 | El sucesor de Vladimir Putin será Dmitri Medvedev

De Nuestra Redacción

Primicia de Offnews- Breaking News - El día 7 de mayo del 2006, Offnews de acuerdo a varias fuentes de información, afirmó como título de nota: "El sucesor de Vladimir Putín será Dmitri Medvedev", hecho que se ha cumplido.Nuevamente Offnews, demuestra su capacidad informativa sobre acontecimientos importantes de la movediza arena política internacional.

 

A poco menos de dos años para la celebración de las elecciones presidenciales, fijadas para marzo de 2008, comienzan a tomar cuerpo los rasgos generales de la futura operación “Sucesor.”

Por cuanto toda la política real de este país se decide dentro de las murallas del Kremlin, estoy convencido de que la elección del que será futuro presidente de Rusia en 2008, depende por completo y únicamente de la voluntad y el deseo de una sola persona: el actual presidente en funciones, Vladimir Putin.

Todo apunta a que Putin, a día de hoy, se muestra firme en la decisión que ya ha manifestado públicamente, de no aspirar a un tercer mandato. Todos los intentos de sus representantes y del entorno más cercano, encabezados por el vicedirector de la Administración de la Presidencia Igor Sechin, de convencer al presidente de introducir cambios en la constitución para poder volver a presentarse, están de antemano condenados al fracaso.


Tengo la sensación de que el presidente en el tema de su sucesión se inclina en estos momentos por la candidatura del primer viceprimer ministro Dmitri Medvedev, quien muy probablemente a comienzos del año que viene sustituya en el cargo de primer ministro a Mijail Fradkov. Medvedev cuenta con una sólida base de apoyos entre la denominada élite.

Eso incluiría al responsable de la Administración presidencial Serguei Sobyanin, a los oligarcas cercanos a Yeltsin: Román Abramovich y los dueños de “Alfa-group”, a los grandes grupos estatales y semi-estatales: “Gazprom”, “Lukoil”, así como al grupo de Anatoli Chubais y la empresa “Electricas de Rusia”. Este último apoyo sería especialmente importante si tenemos en cuenta que el próximo presidente de los EE.UU. puede ser el candidato del Partido Demócrata, con cuyos dirigentes Chubais mantiene estrechas relaciones desde la época del mandato de Bill Clinton.


Pero el elemento determinante en cuanto a apoyos con los que contaría el actual viceprimer ministro, por encima de cualquier otro condicionante, es el propio presidente. Esto se explica no solo por las simpatías personales que despierta Medvedev en Putin, sino por la cercanía ideológica entre ambos. Medvedev es en el fondo el mismo tipo de liberal pro-occidental que el propio Putin.

Dentro del aparato, como principal rival de Medvedev se considera a Serguei Ivanov, actual ministro de defensa, que representa formalmente al grupo de los “ministerios de fuerza”.

Al mismo tiempo este supuesto apoyo no deja de ser relativo. Ivanov, quitando al SVR (Servicio de Inteligencia Exterior. N de la T)), no cuenta con el apoyo decidido de ninguna de las estructuras de presión, ni siquiera en el propio ministerio de defensa ni en el GRU (Inteligencia Militar. N de la T). El director del FSB (Servicio Federal de Seguridad. ex-KGB. N de la T) Nikolai Patrushev y el siguiente en el escalafón, Rashid Nurgaliev, ministro del interior, no han demostrado sus preferencias, ocupando una posición neutral en relación a Ivanov y Medvedev.


Igor Sechin, que mantiene unas relaciones especialmente tensas con Serguei Ivanov, parece que últimamente, a juzgar por ciertas señales, se decantaría claramente por Medvedev, con el que por lo visto ya ha solucionado las diferencias de carácter personal existentes anteriormente.

Todo indica que Sechin, que parece carecer de ambiciones políticas propias, se inclinaría por abandonar el Kremlin juntamente con Putin, una vez que este haya terminado su mandato.

Por último, en la recámara de posibles sucesores se encuentra otro candidato de reserva. Se trata del director de “Ferrocarriles de Rusia”, Vladimir Yakunin.

De los tres, es sin duda el más cualificado profesionalmente para ocupar tan alto cargo. Sin embargo su nombramiento como sucesor, al parecer solo sería posible si Dmitri Medvedev y Serguei Ivanov, cometiesen errores de bulto, a modo de ver de Putin. Además el talón de Aquiles de la candidatura de Yakunin sería su relación personal con Sechin, que parece no tener arreglo.

De este modo, como sucesor de Vladimir Putin, será designado con bastante probabilidad, Dmitri Medvedev, quien si contamos con la apatía política de la población, el perfecto entramado de la vertical administrativa de poder y el multimillonario fondo de estabilización, repleto de petrodólares, saldrá sin duda ninguna elegido presidente en 2008, por muy bajos índices de popularidad que tenga hoy.

Las posibilidades de Serguei Ivanov de ser el sucesor, en el momento actual, no son muchas. Menos aún lo son para Vladimir Yakunin.

Cierto que yo no eliminaría por completo la posibilidad de que Putin aspirase a un tercer mandato.

Esa variante solo se contemplaría en el caso de que se diesen “condicionantes especiales” de carácter externo o interno. Aunque yo no acabo de creer en los condicionantes externos. Tanto Putin como Medvedev, cuentan con el visto bueno de los EE.UU y sus aliados de la OTAN.

Por lo que no se prevé que los estadounidenses y europeos vayan a poner trabas al Kremlin. En todo caso serían posibles pequeños “pinchazos propagandísticos”, con el fin de chantajear a Putin para intentar influir en cuestiones concretas. Pero sobrepasar la frontera de lo permisible, es algo que los socios occidentales de Vladimir Vladimirovich (Putin), no piensan hacer.

En cuanto a los “condicionantes especiales” de orden interno, la cosa se complica.

Cierto que con los actuales precios mundiales del barril de petróleo, difícilmente cabe esperar grandes convulsiones socio-económicas. Sin embargo el país no esta asegurado frente a la desestabilización económica que pudiese originar un acto terrorista, que pretendiese imitar las consecuencias de un “Chernobil artificial”, o ante un preso político como Vladimir Vasilievich Kvachkov. (Coronel retirado del ejército adscrito a los Servicios de Inteligencia Militar [GRU], que está acusado de haber atentado contra Chubais. N de la T).

En principio, nadie del actual círculo de confianza del presidente sería capaz de recurrir a ese tipo de acciones extremas. Y no solo por el conocido por todos respeto a los principios legales que puedan tener los compañeros de armas de Vladimir Vladimirovich, sino en virtud de sus cualidades personales, que son más bien de otro tipo. Pero no podemos olvidar que hay figuras de segundo orden, que forman parte del entorno de los consejeros del presidente

Cualquier decisión que adopte Putin en cuanto a su sucesión, o su candidatura a un tercer mandato, inevitablemente fortalecerá, o por el contrario debilitará seriamente las posiciones de sus inmediatos patrones. Lo que significa enormes beneficios, o por el contrario grandes perdidas de carácter financiero. Podríamos estar hablando de miles de millones de dólares. Esa es una cantidad por la que siempre se encontrará alguien en esta sociedad, dispuesto a asumir cualquier riesgo sin girarse a ver que opina su inmediato superior.

Así pues la cuestión radica en saber si existe ese tipo de gente en el entorno más cercano de Putin. Yo no los veo. Claro que eso no significa que no estén ahí.

Fuente: Rebelión, Vladimir Filin,Forum.msk.ru


I - Biografía de Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev

Dmitry Anatolyevich Medvedev (Russian: Дмитрий Анатольевич Медведев; born September 14, 1965 in Leningrad), is a Russian politician. He was appointed first deputy prime minister of the Russian government on November 14, 2005. Formerly Vladimir Putin's chief of staff, he is also on the Gazprom board of directors, a post he has held since 2000.

Medvedev graduated from Leningrad State University in 1987 with a law degree and in 1990 got a PhD with a specialization in private law. In 1990 he worked in Leningrad Municipal Soviet of People's Deputies. Between 1991 and 1999 he worked as a docent in Saint-Petersburg State University. At the same time Medvedev worked as a legal expert for the mayor and municipal administration of Saint-Petersburg.

In November of 1999 he became one of several St. Petersburgers brought by Vladimir Putin to top government positions in Moscow. In December of the same year he was appointed deputy head of presidential staff.

Dmitry Medvedev became one of the politicians most close to the President Putin and during the 2000 elections when he was head of the presidential election campaign headquarters. From 2000 to 2001, Medvedev was chair of Gazprom's board of directors. He was then deputy chair from 2001 to 2002. In June of 2002, Medvedev became chair of Gazprom board of directors for a second time, a post he has held since that time. In October 2003, he replaced Alexander Voloshin as a presidential chief of staff. In November 2005, he was appointed by President Vladimir Putin as First Deputy Prime Minister.

Dmitry Medvedev is known as a moderate liberal programatic, able administrator and Putin's loyalist. Following his appointment as First Deputy Prime Minister, some political observers expect him to be nominated as Putin's successor for the 2008 presidential elections. However, there is still much debate about Putin's successor, and many analysts have their favourites that they are rooting for.

Dmitry Medvedev is married and has a son named Ilya.

II - UT’s “Operation Successor 2008” Project: Is Dmitry Medvedev the one?
By Peter Lavelle :: UT's "Operation 2008" -Published on October 09, 2005

I found Georgy Bovt’s article “The Man Who Fits the Bill,” published in The Moscow Times, very interesting. Is Vladimir Putin’s presidential chief of staff and Gazprom chairman, Dmitry Medvedev, the person to succeed him? Bovt’s reasoning is compelling. Additionally, if I am allowed to pat myself on the back, Bovt agrees with my forecast that Putin will most likely head Gazprom when he leaves office. The choice of Medvedev is logical in many ways. What does Medvedev have going for him and what would a Medvedev presidency mean?

Medvedev is an experienced administrator and organization man. He, probably more than anyone else, has built the “Putin political order” in terms of cadre policy. Medvedev knows the bureaucracy inside out and backwards; he knows the regional governors, high ministry officials, and, importantly, was instrumental in recasting state-oligarchic relations – a plus that probably saved Russia from collapse.

A Medvedev presidency would most surely mean the continuation of the political and state-business status quo, as well as the continuation of Putin’s commitment to economic and democratic reform. As Bovt correctly pointed out, Medvedev is a compromise candidate. He is not a rigid ideologue and at the very core pragmatic. Medvedev is also acceptable to all the competing elites the “Putin political order” created to ensure political and economic stability.

The Gazprom connection is key. As I wrote elsewhere and Bovt appears to agree, the timing of the Sibneft acquisition is no coincidence. Putin needs to but an end to Russia’s “oil wars” as quickly as possible to solidify Medvedev’s elite appeal before the election cycle. The fact that Yukos’ remaining subsidiaries are again feeling the long and visible hand of the Kremlin is no coincidence either. Rumors that Gazprom has been in secret negotiations with Group Menatep to purchase Yukos’ two other major production units before Rosneft makes its move to “acquire” both may or may not be true, but it certainly appears there is no doubt Yukos’ final fate will be determined very soon. (There is no doubt in my mind that Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s most recent travails – including his legal team and his Open Russia Foundation – has everything to do with what Gazprom – and Rosneft? – are offering Menatep to finally leave the field. I also find it laughable the commentariat’s spin on all this – “the Kremlin is punishing Khodorkovsky for his political ambitions (again!).” What nonsense! The Kremlin could careless what Khodorkovsky thinks about anything beyond what it will take to end the “oil wars”).

The Gazprom connection is very important in another way – the energy giant is at the center of Russia’s economy (in more ways than one – including being the hegemon controlling electronic media and advertising of all sorts). Bovt’s piece confirms my conviction that Putin and Medvedev will essentially exchange jobs. This makes perfect sense. Ending the “oil wars” is all important, but for reasons that are not entirely obvious. It is natural gas exports – not Russia’s oil – that is at the center of all of this. Historically, Russia’s natural gas prices and exports – if we look over the past 20 years – are very inelastic and there is every reason this will remain the case for a very long time to come. This cannot be said of oil prices and exports. The elastic price of petroleum is a curse or cream for Russia, depending on international demand and world prices. Putin has allowed some members of his inner entourage to take part of the oil sector to ensure domestic political stability and inter-elite peace. However, if oil prices go south, Putin and Medvedev have natural gas exports as a full-proof fallback position. Who controls Russia’s natural gas sector controls Russia; the oilmen may or may not do well.

(Before I get a flood of emails, why is Gazprom diving into the oil business in a big way with the Sibneft purchase? First, it is a move to diversify Gazprom’s portfolio – a just in case precaution. Second, to ensure that the folks at Rosneft don’t get too smug and/or too rich to destabilize the status quo. Third, oil is the commodity that Gazprom needs to attract significant joint ventures with international petroleum majors. The fact that Gazprom can raise a multi-billion loan to purchase Sibneft speaks volumes about its newly recognized international prestige).

If Medvedev “is the one,” what’s next?

If Medvedev “is the one,” what should we expect? First, some kind of clear identification with the Kremlin’s pedestal party United Russia. The Kremlin’s liaison with United Russia at present is Surkov. (To be honest, I don’t know how Surkov fits into all of this at this point – though I have no doubt he plays a major role).

Second, Medvedev will very soon be given a high-profile media mission to demonstrate his “presidential qualities.”

Third, Medvedev will start to speak out on his own more. This should include speaking out on Gazprom’s mission to compete and work with international energy mega-giants.

Fourth, look for members of the Kremlin elite deferring to Medvedev. There are many moronic sycophants within the Kremlin elite who will do anything to curry favor with the “new line.” Don’t be surprised to see people like Sergei Ivanov – who is not a sycophant – come out in support of Medvedev. For such support, Ivanov will most likely remain Defense Minister in the next administration.

Fifth, some foreign travel should be in the cards. If Medvedev “is the one,” slowly, but surely, making him known to foreign leaders will be important to ensure the transition.

Is Medvedev nothing more than a stand-in for Putin’s continued political ambitions? I don’t really know – maybe. If things go well under a Medvedev administration, why would Putin want to return to the presidency if he presides over Russia’s most important domestic and foreign exporting asset? If things go badly under a Medvedev administration, why would he want to return to attempt to fix things?

President Medvedev?

Medvedev as “successor” makes a lot of sense. Given the current field of possible contenders – Yavlinsky, Khakamada, Kasparov, Zyuganov, Rogozin, Ryzhkov, and the other usual suspects – I would vote for him in a heartbeat. Medvedev is the pragmatic choice.

III - Medvedev Dmitry Anatolievich-GAZPRON

Dmitry A. Medvedev was born on September 14, 1965, in Leningrad. He graduated from Law Department, Leningrad State University, in 1987. Upon completion of the post-graduate program at the University in 1990, he obtained Ph. D. (Law), and assistant professorship. Mr. Medvedev taught at St. Petersburg State University from 1990 to 1999. From 1990 to 1995 he served as Adviser to the Chairman, Leningrad City Council, and Expert Consultant, Committee for External Relations of the St. Petersburg Mayor's Office.

Mr. Medvedev was appointed Deputy Chief of Staff of the Government of the Russian Federation in 1999. In 1999 - 2000 he was Deputy Head, First Deputy Head of the Presidential Administration.

Mr. Medvedev was Chairman of the Board of Directors, Gazprom, from 2000 to 2001, and Deputy Chairman of the Board in 2001-2002. He has been Chairman of the Board of Directors, Gazprom, since June, 2002.

Mr. Medvedev was Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office from October, 2003 to November, 2005.

Mr. Medvedev was appointed First Deputy Prime Minister of the Russian Federation on November, 2005

Dmitry A. Medvedev is married, one son.

Fuente: http://www.gazprom.ru/eng/articles/article8822.shtml

Offnews.info (Argentina)

 


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19/07/2002|
19/07/2002|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House