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Inteligencia y Seguridad  
 
27/12/2005 | Where Goes The War?

De Nuestra Redacción

As 2005 came to a close, the war on terror was being executed effectively at the tactical level but was unbalanced in its overall strategy. Hard power still constituted the lion's share of the overall effort.

 

And some governments acknowledge the need for more focused and inventive applications of soft power, particularly in the form of public diplomacy in the Muslim world, as well as a more integrative state outreach to Muslim communities in Europe. However, the intensifying jihadi-assisted insurgency in Iraq and the July 2005 London bombings indicated that actual efforts in these areas were insufficient to stem jihadi recruitment and activity.

The global jihad is evolving as a horizontal, atomized network in which the core al-Qaida leadership has diminished command and control but can inspire and influence regional insurgencies and local upstart groups. This pattern, driven by Internet-spread propaganda, is likely to continue. Perhaps the greatest impediment to prospective gains in the war on terror is the Bush administration's reluctance to recognize the galvanizing effect that the U.S.-led occupation of Iraq is having on terrorist recruitment, morale and capability.

While Iraq presents a more difficult operating environment for jihadis than Afghanistan did, some foreign fighters will survive U.S.-led counter-insurgency efforts and relocate in Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Europe and possibly the United States. These cells will be better trained and more motivated to perpetrate and direct terrorist operations. Europe appears to be approaching a tipping point at which localized Muslim insurgencies could become a fact of life.

One of the most vexing quandaries facing counter-terrorism officials is that of gauging the costs and benefits of curtailing civil liberties:

-- Outright torture, such as that perpetrated by U.S. personnel at Abu Ghraib prison, alienates Muslims to such a degree that it presents no perceptible net advantages.

-- Less flagrant restrictions are harder to assess, as are more selective (if harsh) measures, such as U.S. "rendition" arrangements.

However, publicity surrounding even these practices has damaged U.S. credibility in the wider Muslim world. As a result, the U.S. Congress, with the acquiescence of the Bush administration, is poised to pass new legislation expressly barring U.S. personnel from using "cruel, inhuman and degrading" treatment on detainees.

Beyond the legal arena, U.S. and European governments face urgent challenges in the areas of diplomacy and domestic policy. Diplomatic opportunities appear to be materializing with respect to the two conflicts that constitute the most radicalizing influences in the Muslim world, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and Iraq.

The growing consensus among Western powers is that:

-- The acceptable period of reaction and adjustment to Sept. 11, 2001, is coming to a close; and

-- Iraq has weakened the counter-terrorism effort assembled after Sept. 11, 2005, which must now find strategic direction.

The year 2006 is likely to bring a degree of transatlantic strategic reconvergence on the counter-terrorism front. This could unify the broader counter-terrorism coalition.

Forbes (Estados Unidos)

 



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10/05/2005|
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15/04/2005|
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14/04/2005|
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12/04/2005|
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12/04/2005|
10/04/2005|
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07/04/2005|
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31/03/2005|
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30/03/2005|
30/03/2005|
30/03/2005|
30/03/2005|
30/03/2005|
30/03/2005|
27/03/2005|
27/03/2005|
26/03/2005|
26/03/2005|
26/03/2005|
26/03/2005|
23/03/2005|
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18/03/2005|
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08/03/2005|
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28/02/2005|
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17/02/2005|
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14/02/2005|
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31/01/2005|
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30/01/2005|
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30/01/2005|
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30/01/2005|
30/01/2005|
30/01/2005|
29/01/2005|
29/01/2005|
27/01/2005|
27/01/2005|
27/01/2005|
27/01/2005|
26/01/2005|
26/01/2005|
15/01/2005|
15/01/2005|
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15/01/2005|
12/01/2005|
12/01/2005|
09/01/2005|
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09/01/2005|
07/01/2005|
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04/01/2005|
04/01/2005|
27/12/2004|
27/12/2004|
27/12/2004|
27/12/2004|
27/12/2004|
25/12/2004|
25/12/2004|
19/12/2004|
19/12/2004|
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19/12/2004|
19/12/2004|
18/12/2004|
18/12/2004|
13/12/2004|
13/12/2004|
12/12/2004|
12/12/2004|
08/12/2004|
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06/12/2004|
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29/11/2004|
28/11/2004|
28/11/2004|
28/11/2004|
28/11/2004|
28/11/2004|
19/11/2004|
19/11/2004|
18/11/2004|
18/11/2004|
12/10/2004|
10/10/2004|
10/10/2004|
03/10/2004|
24/08/2004|
24/08/2004|
14/08/2004|
14/08/2004|
26/04/2004|
26/04/2004|
11/04/2004|
11/04/2004|
04/02/2004|
04/02/2004|
10/12/2003|
10/12/2003|
05/11/2003|
05/11/2003|
10/10/2003|
06/10/2003|
01/08/2003|
01/08/2003|
28/07/2003|
28/07/2003|
28/07/2003|
28/07/2003|
23/07/2003|
09/07/2003|
24/06/2003|
24/06/2003|
18/06/2003|
18/06/2003|
03/06/2003|
01/06/2003|
17/03/2003|
17/03/2003|
22/02/2003|
22/02/2003|
23/01/2003|
23/01/2003|
15/01/2003|
01/01/2003|
01/01/2003|
01/01/2003|
01/01/2003|
01/08/2002|
01/08/2002|
01/08/2002|
01/08/2002|
19/07/2002|
19/07/2002|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House