Significance: Demonstrating how seriously the Mexican government is taking the recent killing of three people linked to the U.S. consulate in Ciudad Juárez, President Felipe Calderón yesterday returned to the crime-ridden border town to discuss the progress of the administration’s new anti-crime strategy.

Implications: Although the reason why the two U.S. citizens, one of whom worked for the U.S. consulate in Ciudad Juárez, were targeted remains unclear at present, the incident has intensified brewing U.S. concerns over a potential spillover of drug-related violence and triggered new demands for the strengthening of border controls. The high-profile killings also put new question marks in front of the government’s anti-crime strategy.

Outlook: The impact of the incident on bilateral relations with the United States will hinge on the outcome of investigations into the killings; in the meanwhile, domestic pressure for another re-jig of the government’s public security strategy will grow as public sympathy is starting to wear thin and prospects for badly needed tangible short-term successes are slim.

Ciudad Juárez Again in the Spotlight

Accompanied by Foreign Minister Patricia Espinosa and the U.S. ambassador to Mexico, Carlos Pascual, President Felipe Calderón yesterday returned to the northern border town of Ciudad Juárez. The visit—the president’s third in the last 45 days—was officially aimed at monitoring the implementation of the government’s new anti-crime strategy for the country’s most violent city. But the talks over the progress of the "Everybody for Juárez" strategy were eclipsed by the recent attacks, which led to the death of three people linked to the U.S. consulate in the city. Foreign Minister Espinosa yesterday met with consulate staff to express the condolences of the Mexican government. One of the people killed, Lesley Enriquez, was an employee of the consulate. She was killed alongside her husband, Arthur Redelfs, as they travelled back from a social event being hosted by other consulate staff. The third victim, Mexican national Jorge Alberto Salcido Ceniceros, was the husband of another consulate employee, who was following her family in a separate car, returning from the same social event as the other two victims. Preliminary investigations suggest that hit-men linked to the "Aztecas" gang were responsible for the killings. The Aztecas group is thought to be working for the local Juárez cartel, which is fighting a bitter war for control over the strategically situated border town with the Sinaloa cartel, led by Joaquín "El Chapo" Guzmán.

The incident has brought Ciudad Juárez under the spotlight once more. The border city hit the international headlines in late January when a group of hit-men burst into a party and cold-bloodedly killed 13 teenagers and two adults. Relatives claim that none of the victims had links to organised crime gangs, a hypothesis originally floated by the government . The incident prompted the government to re-jig its security strategy for the crime-ridden city, but evidence that the violence has slowed is hard to come by. So far, some 500 persons have been killed in the city this year; during 2009, more than 2,600 homicides were registered. According to unofficial statistics, Chihuahua, the state in which Ciudad Juárez is located, accounted for almost a quarter of all killings committed nationwide so far this year. The total number of drug-related murders is currently estimated to run at just over 2,000 for this year.

Tourism Worries

Ciudad Juárez may be the focal point of concerns over accelerating drug-related violence, but the problems are by no means restricted to the city or, more broadly, the northern border region. Violence has recently been accelerating in southern Guerrero state, where the notorious La Familia Michoacana cartel is operating. According to press reports, there were some 45 murders only last weekend including at least 13 in the resort of Acapulco, an important tourist destination. While Mexican tourism officials remain upbeat that visitors will continue to pour in despite the uptick in violence, the U.S. and Canada have already upgraded their travel warning for Mexico, even though the warnings are currently concentrated on the (relatively tourist-free) northern border regions. There is a risk, however, that continuing media reports on soaring drug violence might dissuade international tourists from travelling to Mexico, thus possibly inflicting further damage on an important economic sector that has already been badly hurt by the outbreak of swine flu last year.

Outlook and Implications

U.S. concerns over soaring drug-related violence in Mexico have been growing strongly over the last few weeks and the latest incident in Ciudad Juárez has intensified those concerns. The immediate reaction of both sides has been to re-affirm the shared commitment to security co-operation, but how exactly the incident will affect bilateral relations will hinge on the outcome of the investigations into the killings. Officials from the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), who have been dispatched to the city to help investigations, have reportedly found no evidence that the victims were targeted for either their nationality or their links to the consulate. American officials have also ruled out the possibility that U.S. security personnel could be conducting operations within the country. But the incident is set to bring back to the table proposals to massively strengthen border control. Only yesterday, Texan governor Rick Perry, who has a pending request with the federal government to deploy 1,000 National Guardsmen along the border, announced tougher border control measures. More broadly, a growing discussion on the potential domestic dangers posed by Mexican drug-cartels could further complicate the U.S. administration’s tepid moves towards immigration reform in the country.

Following the January killings, the incident could become the second event in Ciudad Juárez that marks a turning point in the government’s fight against drug-cartels and organised crime, blowing a further hole in its central argument that most victims of the violent crime-wave are law enforcement officials or gangsters. The government yesterday attempted to send an upbeat message, claiming that violence in Ciudad Juárez has actually been sinking since January, but local civil society organisations immediately expressed their doubts about the government’s numbers. Pressure to withdraw the troops from the fight against drug-trafficking is also increasing. Janet Napolitano, the U.S. secretary of homeland security, yesterday joined the growing group of critics when she suggested that the presence of the military has not been helpful in the fight against crime. Facing strengthening headwinds, the government yesterday pledged that its strategy will bear fruit within the next 100 days. This is a risky promise. While the government’s new strategy for Ciudad Juárez moves, principally, in the right direction, there is little evidence to suggest that the city’s protracted problems can be successfully tackled within such a short timeframe.