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04/11/2009 | Security Concerns Grow as Venezuela Shuts Border with Colombia

Global Insight Staff

The killing of two Venezuelan national guardsmen has prompted the country to close pivotal transit points along the border with its neighbour, Colombia.

 

IHS Global Insight Perspective

 

Significance: The already strained relations between Venezuela and Colombia continued their downhill trend, when the murder of two Venezuelan national guardsmen yesterday prompted Venezuela to shut the border with its neighbour.

Implications: This is the latest of a number of security incidents to have taken place in the last two weeks. The focus is now squarely on the border region, where the confluence of illegal businesses, competing armed groups, and opposing domestic political interests has created a highly explosive mix.

Outlook: Although negative security externalities and electoral incentives are expected to continue to drive a climate of political polarisation, the probability of interstate war remains low, but there is an increasing risk of a kind of low-intensity proxy conflict fought between competing armed groups..

Border Shutdown

Venezuela yesterday shut for an indefinite period of time a number of transit points along the border with Colombia, including the vitally important Francisco de Paula Santander and Simón Bolívar bridges that connect the Colombian department of Norte de Santander with the Venezuelan state of Táchira. The shutdown of the border is a reaction to the killing of two Venezuelan national guardsmen, only hours before. The two guards were serving on a checkpoint in El Palotal, located between Ureña and San Antonio in the border state of Táchira, when two hit-men on motorcycles approached and opened fire, according to an account given by Leomagno Flores, an official of the Táchira state government. Local press reports citing witnesses say, however, that the attack was actually carried out by four men. An immediate search for the killers yielded no results, but Venezuelan authorities from the national investigative police (CICPC) and the National Guard believe they could have escaped over the Colombian border. Venezuelan officials said the attack was in retribution for the capture of ten alleged paramilitaries in San Antonio (Venezuela) last weekend. The detainees were blamed for being behind threats of social cleansing, which had prompted many businesses in San Antonio to temporarily shut. This development comes on the back of a still obscure incident involving the kidnapping and subsequent execution of nine Colombians, one Peruvian, and a Venezuelan national, whose bodies were found in late October in different areas of Táchira. Businesses on both sides have also been hit hard by stiffer border controls, imposed by Venezuela in an effort to curb the widespread food and fuel smuggling in the region.

Explosive Mix

Amid sharply deteriorating political and diplomatic relations, this series of incidents moves the border region squarely into the limelight. The area is highly integrated economically by business links of both a legal and illegal nature, ranging from fuel smuggling to drug-trafficking. Parts of the Colombian Norte de Santander department have long been strongholds of the Armed Revolutionary Forces of Colombia (FARC), a leftist insurgent group with strong ties to the drugs trade, and the National Liberation Army (ELN), Colombia’s second-largest guerilla group. Guerilla operations have in turn caused the emergence of right-wing paramilitaries, creating a complex network of competing illegal armed groups and illicit business operations. Venezuelan domestic politics adds further to the complexity. The border states of Táchira and Zulia are both governed by strong opponents of President Hugo Chávez, whose support has been sharply dropping due to a slumping economy deteriorating security. Tellingly, Táchira’s governor César Pérez Vivas did not eschew the opportunity to blame the kidnapping and execution of the Colombians on ELN combatants, who supposedly count on the tacit support of the Venezuelan armed forces. In a clear effort to discredit Pérez Vivas by casting him as a collaborator with right-wing paramilitaries, the Venezuelan government has in turn maintained that the victims were paramilitaries involved in an alleged plan to destabilise and undermine the national government.

Outlook and Implications

Relations between Colombia and Venezuela have long been volatile, with severe deterioration often being followed by sudden improvement. But this pattern is increasingly being superseded by a more robust downward trend. Trade links, under normal circumstances an effective insurance policy against bilateral tension, have suffered during the second half of 2009 as Venezuela has stiffened border controls and made efforts to substitute certain commodities normally imported from Colombia. By simple force of repetition, negative perceptions are also taking deeper root, with Colombia continuing to insist that Venezuela harbours insurgent combatants and Venezuela constantly stoking fears of a supposedly imminent U.S. military invasion. The feeling of coming under threat was reinforced after Colombia last week signed a contentious military co-operation agreement with the United States. Wit enhanced security co-operation looking unlikely, negative security externalities will continue to strain bilateral relations. Political polarisation is also set to persist as both countries gear up to pivotal elections next year and both presidents stand to derive electoral benefit from a climate of polarisation. While the chance of interstate war remains low, the incidents in the border region suggest that there is an increasing risk of a kind of low-intensity proxy conflict fought between competing armed groups.

On a more positive note, however, fears that Venezuelan allegations of Colombia spying on Ecuador might torpedo the incipient dialogue between Colombia and Ecuador have so far not materialised. While the Ecuadorian government officials have voiced concerns over the allegations, a meeting between Ecuadorian foreign minister Fander Falconí and his Colombian counterpart Jaime Bermúdez will take place today as planned.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)

 


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