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16/06/2007 | High-Profile U.S. Visit to Pakistan Sends Mixed Messages

Global Insight Staff

The U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, Richard Boucher, yesterday met with senior officials, election officials and opposition members as part of a visit to Pakistan.

 

Global Insight Perspective

 

Significance

The visit comes at a time when serious questions are being raised about the role of President Pervez Musharraf and the military-influenced government, and over the U.S. attitude towards Pakistan and its rulers.

Implications

As such, the visit is being regarded as a bellwether of the U.S. administration’s sentiment towards Musharraf, one of its key allies in the war on terrorism, and much is being made of the statements that Boucher has released.

Outlook

The political parties have suggested that the message is mixed, but notably the United States is clearly pressing Pakistan and Musharraf to maintain a policy to pursue greater democracy, which includes holding free and fair elections and Musharraf losing his dual role as president and military chief.

What Did Boucher Say?

Boucher yesterday met election officials and Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri before attending an evening reception hosted by the acting U.S. ambassador, at which an array of opposition party leaders and senior figures were present. Boucher raised the issue of the timing of the forthcoming presidential election—in particular whether Musharraf should seek re-election using the current assemblies or wait until after general elections. This followed remarks made on Tuesday (12 June) by the U.S. State Department, which said in a statement that it felt Musharraf would seek re-election as president after legislative elections, which have yet to be scheduled but could be held later this year or at the start of 2008.

Boucher also reiterated his government’s stance against Musharraf retaining his role as president and chief of army staff, announcing that if Musharraf retained the former the United States was keen to see him “put aside the uniform”. The assistant secretary of state reportedly stressed the need for a “free and vibrant media”, regarding this as a prerequisite for free and fair elections. His final message was that the administration wanted to have a friendship with the people of Pakistan rather than with one individual. Alongside this, it has also emerged that American legislators yesterday voted to restore the US$50 million in military aid that was withdrawn earlier this year over criticisms that Pakistan was failing to control militant activity in its border areas with Afghanistan. As such, assuming the Congress and Senate agree on the foreign aid tally for Pakistan, the country is expected to receive around US$300 million in military grants in 2008.

What Does This Say About U.S. Policy?

The comments released this week say a great deal about current U.S. policy, which if distilled down into the basics is as follows:

Musharraf’s Re-election: Although Musharraf has never been democratically elected, Western governments seem content to allow him a third tenure. Instead of a full election, this can be achieved using the federal and provincial assemblies, which simply vote on the issue. The opposition has argued that Musharraf should wait until after general elections to allow the new assemblies to vote on this. Given that the president has sufficient support with the current assemblies—something that cannot be guaranteed if elections are held—he would prefer to have these elect him. Boucher’s remarks suggest that the United States is backing the opposition’s stance.

Dual Role: Musharraf’s role as president and army chief has always been contentious and pressure has been maintained for him to step down from one of the posts. Given that greater power lies with the presidency and that Musharraf’s links with the military elite remain very close, if forced to choose he will opt for the former. The United States believes the issue is closely linked with democracy, and will therefore exert pressure on Musharraf to drop one of his posts.

Free Media: This is most likely a direct reference to media controls brought in by the government the other week. After pressure these controls were deferred to await the report of a committee established to consider the issue. As anti-Musharraf, anti-government protests have mounted, the president and administration have taken a harder line, and moves to curtail the media were no surprise. The U.S. government however, is unequivocal in considering this a negative development and will maintain pressure to ensure that further constraints are not imposed.

The Pakistani People: This was an interesting remark and is most likely designed to show that the United States isn’t seeking to prop up one increasingly unpopular individual, but that its policy initiatives are designed to support Pakistan. It also warns Musharraf that he should not expect unconditional support from the U.S. administration.

Military Aid: The military aid issue is contentious, with some observers viewing it as necessary to keep Pakistan on-side in the war on terrorism and others as an attempt to prop up an unpopular regime. The decision to reinstate the aid may reflect America’s concerns over the challenge to the government that the suspension of Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry has created. In this respect, the United States does not want to do anything that could be regarded as undermining the position of Musharraf, and so full military aid has been restored.

Outlook and Implications

Much attention has been paid to this visit and a necessarily strong line has emerged from the U.S. administration. The United States is clearly adamant that Musharraf and the government stick to a democratic path, and with it the election schedule. It has been feared that as pressure on the government mounts over the Chaudhry issue, it will become more likely that a state of emergency is imposed. If Pakistan went down this route it would create a major policy headache for the United States and other governments, particularly the U.K government. Neither could be seen to support the move, but ostracising the Pakistani government would place the war on terrorism alliance in jeopardy. As such, moves to keep the election process on track will be redoubled. Talks with the opposition will continue, and attempts to bring the secular parties back into the political mainstream—most obviously through a deal between Musharraf and Bhutto—will develop further.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)

 



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