Global Insight Perspective

Significance

The death of Gemayel will fuel existing political tensions and threatens to exacerbate the country’s fragile sectarian balance.

Implications

Although Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Seniora has come out in fighting mode, reiterating his commitment to forging ahead with the international tribunal into the killing of former prime minister Rafiq Hariri, the death of Gemayel polarises existing divisions between pro- and anti-Syrian elements.

Outlook

The murder of the minister, who was a symbol of a depleted Maronite Christian base in Lebanon, threatens to spark sectarian revenge attacks that would recall the dark days of the country’s civil war. Amin Gemayel, former Lebanese president and the father of the slain minister, has urged restraint. Yesterday’s killing has once again raised the political stakes in Lebanon.

A Maronite Dynasty

Pierre Gemayel Jr, 34, who was killed yesterday in a Christian suburb of the Lebanese capital Beirut, was the son of former president Amin Gemayel, the nephew of assassinated president-elect Bashir Gemayel and the grandson of Pierre Gemayel—founder of the controversial Kataaeb party, a right-wing Maronite political organisation. Bashir Gemayel, Pierre’s late uncle, spearheaded the anti-Palestinian movement of the Phalangist forces in Lebanon in the late 1970s. Having considerably reinforced Maronite power during the early years of the war, Bashir assumed control of the Phalange party in 1980 and was elected to the Lebanese presidency in September 1982. Less than two weeks later, and immediately subsequent to his decision to implement diplomatic ties with Israel, Bashir was assassinated and quickly replaced by his older brother, Amin Gemayel. Far less radical than the other members of his family, Amin Gemayel was seen as a more unifying figure than his brother, and, as a wartime president, he focused his efforts on the withdrawal of Israeli and Syrian forces from Lebanese territory. However, with a dearth of legitimate authority, Amin’s leadership remained weak until the end of his presidential term in 1988. He then appointed General Michel Aoun as interim president, a decision which prolonged violence in the country. However, Pierre Gemayel, despite his troubled lineage, was seen by many in the Maronite community as a symbol of the new generation in Lebanon—one that was able to transcend its bitter past and build a more stable and prosperous future. This symbol of the country’s struggle to escape the past was yesterday gunned down in broad daylight, fuelling sectarian anxieties and fears in an already-jittery nation.

Brewing Political Crisis

The death of former Lebanese prime minister Rafiq Hariri, a critic of Syrian influence in Lebanon, was the first of a series of high-profile political assassinations that included the parliamentarian and press magnate, Gebran Tueni. Tueni’s death came a day after the former UN chief prosecutor, Detlev Mehlis, presented his findings on the murder of Hariri to UN Secretary General Kofi Annan (see Lebanon: 12 December 2005: Bomb Blast Kills Lebanese MP and Media Mogul). Gemayel’s death, on the eve of Lebanon’s Independence Day celebrations, came in the immediate aftermath of the endorsement by Lebanon’s depleted cabinet of a UN draft that paves the way for an international tribunal into the Hariri killing. The timing is indeed pertinent. Saad Hariri, the parliamentary majority leader and son of the assassinated former president, pointed at Syrian involvement in the Gemayel killing, claiming that the Syrian authorities are aiming to reassert their grip on Lebanon and terrorise opponents of the Damascus-led regime into submission. Despite the withdrawal of Syrian troops from Lebanon, Syria continues to exert political influence on its smaller neighbour; the Lebanese President, Emile Lahoud—a staunch supporter of Syria whose presidential mandate was extended under Syrian duress—stubbornly clings on to power. Meanwhile, Hizbollah, long a formidable force on the Lebanese political landscape, has been bolstered by this summer’s military confrontation with Israel, empowering its leadership to demand a greater share of the Lebanese political pie.

The Hizbollah chief, Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, has disparagingly described the government of Prime Minister Fuad Seniora as the “government of Feltman”, a reference to the current U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon, Jeffery Feltman. Hizbollah is angered at the Seniora government’s continued alignment with the United States, despite the U.S. failure to call for an immediate ceasefire during the height of Lebanon’s military confrontation with Israel, in which 1,000 Lebanese, mostly civilians, were killed. Festering tensions between Hizbollah, the Shi’a political bloc Amal and supporters of Prime Minister Fuad Seniora bubbled to the surface in the lead-up to the government’s approval of the UN draft, prompting a walk-out by all of Lebanon’s Shi’a ministers (see Lebanon: 13 November 2006: Government of Lebanon in Jeopardy Following Walkout by Shi’a Ministers). Despite Hizbollah’s condemnation of the Gemayel killing, tensions are running high, sparking angry scenes in Christian east Beirut. Amin Gemayel, the father of the slain minister, has appealed for restraint in the Maronite Christian community, underlining the potential for further recriminations. The Gemayel family will remember that the killing of Bashir Gemayel, uncle of Pierre Gemayel, sparked a brutal rampage by Christian militias in which thousands of Palestinians were murdered. The 1982 massacres of Palestinian refugees in the Sabra and Shatila camps are synonymous with Lebanon’s brutal civil war past, which has now been re-visited by the killing of the heir of a Maronite dynasty with a chequered past.

Syria in the Spotlight

The assassination of Gemayel came on the same day that Syria restored diplomatic ties with Iraq—after a hiatus of more than twenty years—which fuelled talk of Syrian and Iranian engagement in efforts at stabilising Iraq. The Iraq Study Group (ISG), an influential U.S. task force, is expected to recommend a greater role for Iraq’s neighbours when it publishes its findings next month. U.S. President George W. Bush may therefore be less inclined to take note of its recommendations. Yesterday, the U.S. president stopped short of implicating Syria in the killing but repeated the charge that Syria and Iran are stoking instability in the wider region. Syria, already in the spotlight over the Hariri killing, says it has nothing to gain by the death of Gemayel, which will serve to re-focus international scrutiny on the administration of President Bashar al-Asad. Critics of Syria in Lebanon seem unconvinced, maintaining that Syria is working to destabilise Lebanon and scupper the emergence of a democratic, cosmopolitan country on its border.

Outlook and Implications

The pattern of violence in Lebanon, established by the assassination of Hariri, yesterday assumed a new dimension, plunging the country into a deeper crisis and fuelling talk of the imminent demise of the Seniora government. The death of Gemayel could, however, inadvertently strengthen the authority of the premier. Hizbollah has apparently suspended planned street protests to demand the resignation of the Lebanese government, in fear of a confrontation with anti-Syrian elements. Gemayel’s funeral, which will be held tomorrow, may well prove a critical juncture for Lebanon. The threat of revenge attacks by more hard-line Maronite supporters of Gemayel is likely to become more pronounced at tomorrow’s funeral, which will provide an outlet for anti-Syrian sentiment. Lebanon—which is yet to recover from its military confrontation with Israel—is now in the throes of a new political crisis that threatens to reopen old wounds.

Contact: Raul Dary

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