"Unity Government"

Lebanon's premier-designate, Saad Hariri, presented a cabinet proposal to President Michel Suleiman yesterday afternoon, nearly 70 days after he was appointed to head a new unity government (see Lebanon: 26 June 2009: Western-Backed Hariri to Lead New Lebanese Government). According to Lebanon's constitution, the cabinet is formed by a presidential decree. The proposal comes after two and a half months of intense deliberations, both within the March 14 coalition that swept to victory in the country's legislative polls in June and with the March 8 opposition coalition, which includes the armed Shi'a Hizbollah movement, over the make-up of the new government. Efforts to form a cabinet have encountered a number of difficulties, drawing out an all-too-familiar political stalemate between the two opposing camps. Hariri said that he had drawn up his proposal on the basis of an agreed sharing between the parliamentary majority, the president, and the opposition, giving Hariri's March 14 bloc 15 seats, President Michel Suleiman 5 seats, and the March 8 coalition 10 seats. Speaking at an Iftar (evening meal) yesterday, Hariri said, "I have achieved my duty after deliberating with all parties…there is only one parliamentary majority in Lebanon", according to Lebanese daily, the Daily Star. In so saying, Hariri clearly signalled that ultimate power and decision-making in the government will rest with March 14. This would also explain why he chose not to run his draft by all constituent parties of the opposition before submitting it to President Suleiman, even though he stayed true to promises to include the opposition in government.

The Opposition Reacts

Unsurprisingly, read as a unilateral move, Hariri's proposal was immediately rejected by the opposition. Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah criticised Hariri yesterday, saying, "The method used by the PM-designate intensifies the crisis…and the [majority] offered no concessions since the beginning of the cabinet deliberations", according to Agence France-Presse (AFP). Nasrallah also criticised Hariri's failure to make any concessions on any of the opposition's demands during government talks. An anonymous opposition source told Reuters today that the opposition would not deal with the proposal, adding: "As far as we are concerned, it does not exist and we will have nothing to do with it." Furthermore, the Free Patriotic Movement of Michel Aoun, the Marada movement, and the Armenian Tashnaq party said that the unilateral imposition of portfolios was "a blow to democracy and constitutional norms", according to the Daily Star. So far no official information has been disclosed on the make-up of the proposed government, although rumours are rife regarding Hariri's choices.

Stumbling on the Way

The cabinet proposal comes as a surprise given the lack of agreement with the opposition and the ever-present possibility that they could withdraw their support for a unity government. It appears to have been ushered in by President Suleiman's desire to have the government formed before he heads to the United Nations (UN) General Assembly gathering in New York (United States) on 21 September. Suleiman's informal deadline was set after weeks of delay due to a number of stumbling blocks. The first such blow came in early August when Walid Jumblatt, the Druze leader of the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP), announced that he had ended his long-time alliance with March 14. His withdrawal was a significant blow to Hariri, who took over the leadership of the Future Movement after the assassination of his father, former prime minister Rafiq Hariri, in February 2005. Jumblatt effectively rejected his own party's post-2005 policies since the Hariri assassination, including opposition to Syrian involvement in Lebanon, March 14's Western ties, and support for the International Tribunal for Lebanon, which is charged with probing the Hariri murder. Jumblatt's withdrawal from March 14 not only shook confidence in Hariri's ability to keep together the majority alliance—which has long been considered an alliance of convenience—but also meant that the previously agreed 15-10-5 arrangement was thrown into doubt as Jumblatt effectively transferred his support to President Suleiman. It is unclear whether Jumblatt's designated seat would be included in the president's 5 or whether March 14's original 15 seats would be reduced.

The other hurdle to the formation of a new government has been erected by Maronite leader and head of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), Michel Aoun. Aoun was undoubtedly emboldened by Jumblatt's move, stating more than once that Lebanon no longer had a "majority". Whereas the rest of March 8—including Hizbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Amal leader Nahib Berri—have kept a relatively low profile during the cabinet deliberations and have largely refrained from criticising Hariri or issuing overt demands—Aoun has been the most vocal critic of the prime minister-designate in the aftermath of the June polls and has demanded that his son-in-law, caretaker Telecommunications Minister Gebran Bassil, remain in his post and that the FPM be granted one of the so-called sovereign portfolios (defence, interior foreign, finance). Aoun appears to have been eyeing the Interior Ministry in particular. Hariri meanwhile has consistently refused to heed Aoun's demands, not least because of the pressure from Aoun's rival Christian parties within the majority bloc, Phalange leader Amin Gemayel, and Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces. Hariri has also refused to re-appoint Bassil after he failed to secure re-election in the June polls. Rumours in the Lebanese press indicate that the Telecommunications Ministry, a politically important portfolio, has been designated to a close Hariri aide. As is to be expected, Aoun has vociferously rejected Hariri's proposal, and has said that if the cabinet is approved his five ministers will immediately withdraw from the government once formed.

Outlook and Implications

Hariri's move sends a strong signal to the opposition—and particularly to Aoun—that there are limits to its ability to stall the formation of a new cabinet; after all, March 14 democratically won Lebanon's parliamentary polls. In deciding to limit compromise to including March 8 in the government, Hariri may be attempting to reverse some of the damage done by the lack of progress on the government and by Jumblatt's political bombshell. Presenting the cabinet proposal to Suleiman without prior agreement with the opposition is certainly a risky gamble. The plans rest entirely on President Suleiman's approval; and if approved on Suleiman's ability to convince March 8 forces to accept the set-up, a difficult task by any account. Suleiman for his part will have to tread a fine line. Given that it is unlikely that Hariri will accept Aoun's demands as this would probably be too great a concession for the prime minister-designate, it would seem that the road ahead involves either another government without Aoun's FPM or a collapse of the government formation efforts. Although the government could certainly survive without Aoun even if it holds 27 of the 128 seats in parliament—his faction stayed out of the last government too—the main question is how the rest of the opposition (Hizbollah, Amal, Tashnaq, and the Marada Movement) would react should Suleiman accept Hariri's proposal. Judging by their reactions so far, Lebanon's chronic political stalemate may well drag on, in one way or another.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)