Clinton Fends Off Challenge

There have been many potentially pivotal primaries in the race for the Democratic presidential nomination, but none has proved so in practice. Pennsylvania yesterday was no exception, producing a victory for Hillary Clinton that keeps her race alive, but which leaves Barack Obama out in front overall. Clinton won around 55% of the vote to Obama's 45%, although the quirks of the delegate allocation process is likely to mean that the win does little to close the gap in Obama's delegate lead over her. Clinton was always expected to win, thanks to her long-time links to the state and her popularity among key demographic groups there—the elderly and the white poor. Black voters and the well-educated middle class who tend to favour Obama are outnumbered. As usual, Clinton enjoyed a good lead among female voters, while Obama was particularly strong among younger voters.

The primary marked the climax of several weeks of increasingly acrimonious campaigning, with both candidates committing gaffes. Their battles are worrying the Democratic hierarchy, which would rather see the punches being landed on Republican candidate John McCain. Clinton has come under pressure to step aside, but it seems the Pennsylvania victory will be enough to persuade her to fight on. Obama enjoys an overall lead in delegates that Clinton now looks very unlikely to overcome. She could still win with the help of "super-delegates", however. These are senior figures in the party, including members of Congress, who are free to cast their votes as they choose. It is likely that the super-delegates will vote along the same lines as the popular vote, but Clinton is hoping to exploit doubts that linger over Obama's electability and experience.

Outlook and Implications

There are now only a handful of states left to vote, the first being Indiana and North Carolina on 6 May. These will all be important to the race, but are unlikely to prove decisive. Clinton nonetheless faces major campaign finance problems. Her unpaid bills are mounting and she is way behind Obama's fundraising machine. He spent much more heavily than her in Pennsylvania, and will enjoy the same advantage in the coming votes. He remains the favourite overall thanks to his leads both in terms of pledged delegates and popular vote, but he does need to avoid the kind of gaffes that rubbed off some of his sheen over recent weeks. He is vulnerable to charges of elitism and inexperience from Clinton—and he needs to weigh every comment he makes extremely carefully to avoid giving her more ammunition. The bruising battle the two are waging is doing the Democratic Party no favours and is playing into the hands of Republican candidate John McCain. He is likely to use many of the same lines of attacks against the eventual Democratic victor. He has yet to be really tested properly himself yet, however. His colourful past could yet provide some powerful ammunition to his ultimate opponent, as could his age.