A Narrowing Gap

Yesterday, Ukraine held the second round of presidential polls. As predicted, the race between opposition candidate Viktor Yanukovych of the Party of Regions (PoR) and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko (BYT) was neck-and-neck, but by the end of election day it was clear from the results of two exit polls that Yanukovych was winning. According to the U.S. Research and Branding Group's exit polls survey commissioned by the Ukrainian ICTV television channel, Yanukovych gained 50.26% of the votes while Tymoshenko had 44.20%. The figures from a survey conducted by another Western firm, GfK, gave Yanukovych some 49.8% and Tymoshenko 45.2% of the vote. Today, at midday Ukrainian time, the National Central Elections Committee (CEC) announced that based on nearly 95% of the vote Yanukovych was leading the polls by 2.09%. CEC member Mykhailo Okhendovskiy has stated to media that with votes yet to come from the south and east of Ukraine, the gap is not likely to narrow any further as these are the traditional strongholds of PoR's leader. Tymoshenko has taken the matters into her own hands, revealing that she has ordered a parallel vote count and that so far the CEC is not reflecting the real vote count which according to the PM puts her in the lead by 0.8%. The CEC has not commented on Tymoshenko's statement but informed media that the ballot counting continues and it may take up to nine days for the final results to be published. However, the preliminary outcome should be clear by the end of today.

Meanwhile, voter turnout was slightly higher than the first round on 17 January, standing at 70%. A large number—5.5% of voters or about 1 million people—had voted against both candidates. Judging by the remarks that the outgoing incumbent Viktor Yushchenko made after casting his ballot and saying that he felt shame for Ukrainians' choice, he belonged to the "against all" group. Tymoshenko was quick to dismiss the exit poll results as a mere exercise in sociology, stating that she will wait for the official statement from the CEC.

The Calm Before the Storm?

Despite the slim majority and the reality that the vote count is not yet complete, Yanukovych has already urged Tymoshenko to tender her resignation as Prime Minister. Tymoshenko was quick to reject this demand, warning her opponent not to rush into early celebrations. Tymoshenko has already started casting doubts on the validity of the elections, claiming that in the east of Ukraine in at least 1000 elections sites her supporters were barred from monitoring the voting process. As a result this could be revealing of her plans to appeal to the country's judiciary to annul the results of the second round from the eastern region of Donetsk, Yanukovych's powerbase. Despite her rhetoric Tymoshenko has been relatively calm waiting for two things to happen—publication of the official election results and the statement from the international observers. The election was closely monitored by international observers, with the majority coming from Canada due to the large Ukrainian community there, mostly sympathetic to Ukraine's western path of development. The observers, led by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), are yet to issue a statement on the quality of the elections. However, a representative of the Council of Europe has indicated already that despite some irregularities there was not a consistent pattern of vote-rigging which would qualify the elections as unfair.

Outlook and Implications

Given the narrow gap between the exit polls and early election results, the losing party is most certainly set to take action to reclaim victory. Tymoshenko has already vowed to fight for every single vote by staging another revolution, of a magnitude that Yanukovych has not seen yet. The latter is not prepared to concede easily and considering the reinforcement that he has arranged for by placing tents in most of the Ukrainian cities manned with his supporters indicates that he will try to avoid a repeat of 2004-2005's scenario, when he was declared the winner by a similarly narrow margin only to lose in the third round of voting forced by the popular uprising of the Orange Revolution.

If Tymoshenko loses she would like to see history repeat itself. However there are three crucial elements missing, preventing her from launching another revolution. Firstly, the Ukrainian voters are tired of revolutions and are looking for stability even if it comes at a price of less individual freedom. Secondly, Ukraine's economy cannot afford another revolution. Ukraine is facing serious fiscal shortages as its only major international lender, the International Monetary Fund, has halted co-operation subject to the return of political stability and previously agreed reforms. Furthermore Ukraine's hryvnia has lost 48% of its value since September 2008, and is the second-worst underperforming national currency, only trailing behind the Venezuelan bolivar. Thirdly, the international community is less keen to support a leader who has failed once to deliver the promises of economic and democratic change leaving the country in a deeper state of unrest and decline. The West is wary to show enthusiastic support for a toned down and ideologically unclear programme. Instead, the international community has presented itself as ready to work with any government that can provide the minimum—domestic stability, economic co-operation with the west and good relations with Russia to ensure a secure gas flow to the European Union.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)