Significance: On the face of it, the preliminary results are great news for incumbent Hamid Karzai as he is spared a second-round contest with former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah; for the country too a swift result would allow some political "normality" to return after the upheaval and violence of the election build-up.

Afghan election officials have said that President Hamid Karzai has avoided a run-off against his nearest opponent by winning 54.1% of the vote, but myriad electoral fraud accusations are proving impossible to ignore for the United States and other key international backers.

IHS Global Insight Perspective

Significance: On the face of it, the preliminary results are great news for incumbent Hamid Karzai as he is spared a second-round contest with former foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah; for the country too a swift result would allow some political "normality" to return after the upheaval and violence of the election build-up. Implications: The situation is not that simple, however, given the rife allegations of electoral fraud and the announcement of partial recounts. The situation is extremely awkward for the United States and other international players, as they do not want to undermine the apparent victor, but at the same time they cannot be seen to endorse a corrupt political process.

Outlook: Certification of the victory ultimately rests with the United Nations-backed election commission; it remains highly likely that Karzai will serve a second term, but how this will be secured, and how legitimately he will be perceived at home and abroad remain uncertain.

Results in Doubt

The 20 August presidential and provincial council elections were only the second set to be held since the ouster of the Taliban in 2001 and consequently a key milestone in the country's political development. The process was never going to be perfect, but it was hoped that it would bestow sufficient legitimacy upon the victor, and allow him to consolidate the fragile political system. Unfortunately, the process appears to have been anything but perfect with many allegations of blatant vote-rigging circulating in the media. These have included ballot-stuffing and the operation of phantom polling stations. Given these circumstances, the United States has been warning Karzai and his backers against declaring victory prematurely. Investigations are promised into the irregularities, but there is a danger that a dangerous political limbo will ensue, as well as heightened acrimony between Karzai and the U.S. administration.

All eyes are on the United Nations-backed Independent Election Commission (IEC) that is the ultimate arbiter of the contest. On the same day that Afghan officials were confirming Karzai had crossed the 50% mark, the IEC said it had found "clear and convincing evidence of fraud" at various polling stations. A partial recount has consequently been ordered, focusing on ballot boxes where turnout was exceptionally high or where one candidate won over 95% of the votes cast. It is reported that there is considerable disquiet among the UN officials involved, some of whom feel the IEC should have been instituting tighter safeguard measures. The big question is whether the votes in question would be enough to deny Karzai the 50% tally and force a second-round contest against his nearest challenger, former Afghan foreign minister Abdullah Abdullah. According to the Afghan officials, the 91.6% complete count shows the latter received 28.3% support, compared to Karzai's 54.1%.

Should Karzai be allowed to declare victory without proper investigation of the allegations, there is clearly a danger that his legitimacy will be badly undermined both in front of the Afghan people and the international community. It is already proving very difficult to secure adequate financial and military support from the latter, and the task will be greatly complicated if confidence is lost in Karzai. There is a balancing-act however, as the United States knows it needs to keep Karzai on side. An American official is quoted in the New York Times as saying "We are still probably going to have to deal with him. This just makes the morning after a lot more difficult". One possible solution would be to convince Karzai to bring Abdullah into his government. This would carry credibility risks for Abdullah, so it would require enticements. Options on the latter front include conceding to his demands for provincial governor direct elections and/or curbs on the influence of powerful warlords (see scenarios below for more).

Outlook and Implications

Karzai is highly likely to remain president for a second five-year term; the question is how legitimate his victory is perceived to be, and whether it is secured without the need for a run-off. Such is the international condemnation of the irregularities that a quick declaration looks unlikely. The United States and other international players are electing to remain low-key at this stage, arguing that the election commission needs some more time to judge the extent of irregularities. Even if the process itself had been fair, the fact that only some five million of an estimated total 15 million eligible voters took part shows the limitations of democracy in Afghanistan. Turnout was greatly hindered by the upsurge in Taliban violence, deterring many from voting, particularly in Taliban strongholds in the south and east of the country. In some areas turnout was reportedly less than 5%. The electoral institutions themselves remain weak, and the advantages bestowed on the incumbent by the system are considerable. Under current constitutional provisions Afghanistan's president enjoys significant advantages in contesting elections, which many have argued go well beyond the usual advantages of incumbency. This includes the power to appoint IEC officials, provincial governors, gain disproportionate media coverage and access to state resources.

The two scenarios that IHS Global Insight has sketched out for the election outcome in previous articles remain valid given the uncertainty surrounding Karzai's purported first-round victory:

Scenario I: Small-Margin Victory or Run-Off Elections Spark Violence: In this scenario the successful candidate wins by only a small margin, either during the first round or through run-off elections. The most likely winner is Karzai, although Abdullah, Bashardost and/or Ghani could succeed if they formed an alliance, particularly in the case of run-off elections. In this scenario the elections produce results that lack, or are perceived to lack, legitimacy among wide parts of the population. Tajik voter turnout rates have been higher than those of Pashtuns. Tensions would ensue, culminating in demonstrations and violence. A significant loss of trust in the entire democratic process would become evident. Political violence will add significantly to the general climate of instability in this scenario, and would also affect the country's cities. In such a situation the Taliban would be able to further gain strength, as efforts to counter their movement become increasingly diluted. This scenario could also see Karzai impose a state of emergency. The international community would face severe additional hardships in carrying out their mandate.

Scenario II: Small-Margin Victory or Run-Off Elections Force Winning Candidate to Co-Opt Challengers: This scenario sees the winning candidate co-opting one or more of his challengers, most likely by offering attractive positions in his government. Depending on the overall context in which such a move takes place, this could provide for more stability. Furthermore, the fact that Abdullah, Bashardost and/or Ghani have a say in government opens the door for more substantial reform moves in political, economic and social terms. The government's writ increases as its legitimacy is enhanced in the eyes of the public (although regional commanders are likely to retain control over much of their traditional territory). The international community is provided the opportunity to extend unprecedented moral and material support to a government that enjoys widespread legitimacy, which not least means enhanced public trust in government institutions that in turn are strengthened and slowly rid of rampant corruption. This would help counter-insurgency measures against the Taliban, thus enhancing security throughout the country. Furthermore, a reversal of the tide in the fight against the Taliban also enhances leverage power to initiate peace talks with "moderate" elements among insurgents, as proposed by Karzai for some time.