Kosovo is due to hold a snap general election this weekend, but with traditional voting patterns engrained it is unlikely that new political movements will be given dominance despite the traditional parties failing to present programmes to address the country's woes, which range from economic underdevelopment to high-level corruption.
IHS Global Insight Perspective
Significance: Kosovo's electorate is due to go to the
polls on Sunday (12 December) to vote in the country's first general election
since independence.
Implications: The snap general election comes after
months of political instability, exacerbated by tense relations between the
ethnic Serb minority and ethnic Albanian majority.
Outlook: The international community will be focusing on
the election as pressure mounts for Kosovo to hold a free and fair vote, but
with economic concerns growing and uncertainties clouding the participation of
ethnic Serbs, the challenges for Europe's newest country are considerable.
Kosovo's 1.6 million voters are scheduled to elect a new
120-seat parliament on Sunday (12 December), in the first general election to
be held in the country since it unilaterally declared independence from Serbia
in February 2008. The election is taking place almost a year ahead of schedule,
prompted by the collapse of the ruling Democratic Party of Kosovo
(PDK)-Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) coalition in October 2010. Political
instability in Kosovo had been rising since the resignation of President Fatmir
Sejdiu in September and the subsequent withdrawal of his LDK from the ruling
coalition and the loss of a confidence vote. The PDK of outgoing Prime Minister
Hashim Thaci appears to be the favourite to win the most votes at the 12
December election despite largely failing to address the concerns of the
electorate about Kosovo's stagnating economic development and those of the
international community about rising high-level corruption; however, the PDK is
unlikely to secure an outright majority. As a result, coalition building will
once again be the order of the day in the post-election landscape. Since the
collapse of the coalition, both the PDK and LDK, led by newly elected chief Isa
Mustafa, have reverted back to their traditionally opposing stances,
proclaiming that they would not form a coalition in the post-election
landscape. This could complicate efforts to form a new government quickly and
efficiently.
A Plethora of Contenders
Kosovo's Central Election Commission has certified 29
political parties and groups and a total of 1,265 candidates to run in the
parliamentary election, but only a handful of these are likely to stand a
chance of securing enough votes, more than 5% for non-minority parties, to gain
a seat in parliament and affect the country's political direction. In a
reflection of the relative youth of the country's political parties and their
inexperience in dealing with the issues of a sovereign state, none of the
parties have offered a coherent plan or strategy to address the country's
economic woes which include soaring unemployment and heavy reliance on foreign
aid and remittances. With the primary goal of independence from Serbia having
been achieved, most of the parties are struggling to carve out a political
stance for themselves based on conventional issues affecting the electorate.
Instead the parties have taken up the goal of pushing for Euro-Atlantic
integration and offering vague pledges to clean up government and clamp down on
rampant corruption.
As previously mentioned the PDK appears to be in prime
position to reap the benefits of its last four years in power, during which it
can claim credit for ushering in independence. It is also claiming to have the
best links with Euro-Atlantic institutions, thereby being the most able to
oversee rapid integration with NATO and the European Union (EU). The PDK's
election slogan is a reflection of this declaring it to be a "party of
integration, which will lead Kosovo towards... NATO and the EU".
Conversely, the LDK has not come out of the coalition government looking so
great. The party has largely been labelled responsible for the collapse of the
government. In addition, the LDK is struggling to deal with internal
fragmentation which it has been concentrating on, instead of looking to meet
the electorate's needs. Nonetheless, it has fought a campaign which has
attempted to be all-encompassing, declaring that it would fight for
"honest government, economic growth, integration in the EU and prestige...
in the world." The traditional third party of Kosovan politics—the
Alliance for the future of Kosovo (AAK)—has also struggled in the run-up to the
election due to a lack of leadership. The AAK's leader Ramush Haradinaj
continues to face war crimes charges at the International Criminal Tribunal for
the former Yugoslavia (ICTY). The party has sought to connect with voters by
promising to increase living standards and working for the bettering of
everyday life of citizens.
The biggest challenge to PDK dominance is likely to come
from two new political forces in the country. The first is the Vetevendosje
(self-determination) movement, led by Albin Kurti, which has been steadily
building its support base among Kosovo's disenchanted youth. Vetevendosje has
presented itself as a party eager to shed the shackles of international
tutelage on Kosovo. In addition, it has in the past declared to be in favour of
the creation of a Greater Albania, uniting ethnic Albanians from Albania, the
Former Yugoslav Republic (FYR) Macedonia, Kosovo, Montenegro and Serbia in one
country. This aim is likely to be purely rhetorical, given the international
community's refusal to entertain such a concept. The second is the FER (New Spirit)
party run by two Western-educated ethnic Albanians looking to present
themselves as technocrats able to tackle the country's woes, namely corruption,
sustainable economic development, health and education. Despite the seemingly
growing popularity of the two new parties, the 12 December election will be a
test of the inclination of Kosovo's electorate to break with traditional voting
patterns and embrace new ideas, leaders and parties which were never associated
with the struggle for independence.
A Minority Population Undecided
Another complicating factor is the 10% Kosovo Serb
minority. The minority population has largely refused to acknowledge the 2008
declaration of independence and continues to receive political direction and
economic support from Serbia proper. Serbia, alongside representatives of the
Serb National Council (SNV), has called on the minority not to participate in
the vote, a call which is likely to be abided by the large minority Serb
population living in the north of Kosovo. However, the local elections staged
last year have indicated that Serbia's influence in boycotting elections
appears to be waning on minority Serb populations living in central and eastern
areas of Kosovo. As a result, the number of Kosovo Serbs participating in the
election could be higher than originally thought. Nonetheless, the main problem
of representativeness remains with the parties running for the 10 parliamentary
seats reserved for the minority not being true representatives of the Kosovo
Serb position.
Outlook and Implications
The first general election in Kosovo will be closely
watched for signs that the country is embracing its Euro-Atlantic future by
upholding the principles of free and fair democratic elections. The
international community will be present to monitor the election, working
alongside domestic observers. The lack of a clear divide between the main
parties of Kosovo's political scene is a reflection of the difficulty in
forging political cleavages now that the goal for which they were founded,
namely independence, has been achieved. At the same time, Kosovo's highly
traditional society could mean that new political parties struggle to gain
traction at the 12 December election. Kosovo is a country beset by problems,
including a sluggish economy unable to sustain itself, soaring unemployment,
prevalent corruption and inter-ethnic tensions. Sunday's election is unlikely
to address these fundamental problems with none of the parties running able to
offer a coherent solution or strategy. As a result, the biggest change which is
likely to come from the election is a change of government however hopes for
rapid Euro-Atlantic integration, economic development or an end to the
inter-ethnic stand-off are likely to prove premature.
fecha |
Título |
03/04/2011| |
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26/03/2011| |
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20/03/2011| |
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26/02/2011| |
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18/02/2011| |
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18/02/2011| |
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15/02/2011| |
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12/02/2011| |
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10/02/2011| |
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10/02/2011| |
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07/02/2011| |
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03/02/2011| |
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01/02/2011| |
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29/01/2011| |
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26/01/2011| |
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26/01/2011| |
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26/01/2011| |
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25/01/2011| |
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22/01/2011| |
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20/01/2011| |
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20/01/2011| |
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18/01/2011| |
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18/01/2011| |
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17/01/2011| |
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17/01/2011| |
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15/01/2011| |
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14/01/2011| |
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12/01/2011| |
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12/01/2011| |
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10/01/2011| |
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06/01/2011| |
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06/01/2011| |
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01/01/2011| |
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31/12/2010| |
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31/12/2010| |
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25/12/2010| |
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25/12/2010| |
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25/12/2010| |
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18/12/2010| |
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14/12/2010| |
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26/11/2010| |
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26/11/2010| |
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20/11/2010| |
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17/11/2010| |
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17/11/2010| |
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17/11/2010| |
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15/11/2010| |
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13/11/2010| |
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13/11/2010| |
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12/11/2010| |
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12/11/2010| |
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05/11/2010| |
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04/11/2010| |
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04/11/2010| |
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31/10/2010| |
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09/10/2010| |
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02/10/2010| |
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02/10/2010| |
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17/09/2010| |
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10/09/2010| |
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10/09/2010| |
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10/07/2010| |
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10/07/2010| |
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08/04/2010| |
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05/04/2010| |
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18/03/2010| |
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17/03/2010| |
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16/03/2010| |
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09/03/2010| |
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09/03/2010| |
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05/03/2010| |
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05/03/2010| |
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04/03/2010| |
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03/03/2010| |
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01/03/2010| |
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26/02/2010| |
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26/02/2010| |
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24/02/2010| |
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23/02/2010| |
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22/02/2010| |
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20/02/2010| |
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20/02/2010| |
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17/02/2010| |
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17/02/2010| |
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16/02/2010| |
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15/02/2010| |
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12/02/2010| |
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11/02/2010| |
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10/02/2010| |
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09/02/2010| |
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08/02/2010| |
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05/02/2010| |
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04/02/2010| |
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04/02/2010| |
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04/02/2010| |
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02/02/2010| |
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01/02/2010| |
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31/01/2010| |
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31/01/2010| |
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22/01/2010| |
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21/01/2010| |
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20/01/2010| |
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19/01/2010| |
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19/01/2010| |
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15/01/2010| |
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14/01/2010| |
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13/01/2010| |
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12/01/2010| |
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11/01/2010| |
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08/01/2010| |
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07/01/2010| |
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07/01/2010| |
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05/01/2010| |
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04/01/2010| |
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31/12/2009| |
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31/12/2009| |
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30/12/2009| |
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24/12/2009| |
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23/12/2009| |
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22/12/2009| |
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21/12/2009| |
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18/12/2009| |
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17/12/2009| |
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16/12/2009| |
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15/12/2009| |
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15/12/2009| |
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14/12/2009| |
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14/12/2009| |
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13/12/2009| |
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13/12/2009| |
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11/12/2009| |
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11/12/2009| |
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10/12/2009| |
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10/12/2009| |
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08/12/2009| |
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08/12/2009| |
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08/12/2009| |
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08/12/2009| |
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04/12/2009| |
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04/12/2009| |
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04/12/2009| |
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04/12/2009| |
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03/12/2009| |
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03/12/2009| |
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01/12/2009| |
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01/12/2009| |
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01/12/2009| |
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01/12/2009| |
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27/11/2009| |
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27/11/2009| |
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26/11/2009| |
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26/11/2009| |
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25/11/2009| |
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25/11/2009| |
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24/11/2009| |
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24/11/2009| |
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23/11/2009| |
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23/11/2009| |
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22/11/2009| |
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22/11/2009| |
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16/11/2009| |
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16/11/2009| |
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13/11/2009| |
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13/11/2009| |
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11/11/2009| |
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11/11/2009| |
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11/11/2009| |
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11/11/2009| |
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10/11/2009| |
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10/11/2009| |
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07/11/2009| |
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06/11/2009| |
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04/11/2009| |
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04/11/2009| |
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02/11/2009| |
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31/10/2009| |
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30/10/2009| |
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29/10/2009| |
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28/10/2009| |
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27/10/2009| |
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21/10/2009| |
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21/10/2009| |
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19/10/2009| |
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15/10/2009| |
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14/10/2009| |
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13/10/2009| |
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12/10/2009| |
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09/10/2009| |
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09/10/2009| |
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07/10/2009| |
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06/10/2009| |
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05/10/2009| |
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02/10/2009| |
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01/10/2009| |
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01/10/2009| |
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01/10/2009| |
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30/09/2009| |
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30/09/2009| |
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21/09/2009| |
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19/09/2009| |
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17/09/2009| |
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16/09/2009| |
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15/09/2009| |
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14/09/2009| |
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12/09/2009| |
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12/09/2009| |
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12/09/2009| |
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10/09/2009| |
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09/09/2009| |
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08/09/2009| |
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07/09/2009| |
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05/09/2009| |
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04/09/2009| |
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03/09/2009| |
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02/09/2009| |
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01/09/2009| |
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31/08/2009| |
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29/08/2009| |
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27/08/2009| |
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27/08/2009| |
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26/08/2009| |
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24/08/2009| |
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21/08/2009| |
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20/08/2009| |
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19/08/2009| |
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18/08/2009| |
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17/08/2009| |
|
14/08/2009| |
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14/08/2009| |
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14/08/2009| |
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14/08/2009| |
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12/08/2009| |
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12/08/2009| |
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11/08/2009| |
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11/08/2009| |
|
10/08/2009| |
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10/08/2009| |
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07/08/2009| |
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07/08/2009| |
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06/08/2009| |
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06/08/2009| |
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05/08/2009| |
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05/08/2009| |
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04/08/2009| |
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04/08/2009| |
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03/08/2009| |
|
03/08/2009| |
|
01/08/2009| |
|
01/08/2009| |
|
29/07/2009| |
|
29/07/2009| |
|
29/07/2009| |
|
29/07/2009| |
|
27/07/2009| |
|
27/07/2009| |
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25/07/2009| |
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25/07/2009| |
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23/07/2009| |
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23/07/2009| |
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23/07/2009| |
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23/07/2009| |
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21/07/2009| |
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21/07/2009| |
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20/07/2009| |
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20/07/2009| |
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17/07/2009| |
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17/07/2009| |
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16/07/2009| |
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16/07/2009| |
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16/07/2009| |
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15/07/2009| |
|
15/07/2009| |
|
15/07/2009| |
|
28/03/2009| |
|
15/03/2009| |
|
15/03/2009| |
|
15/03/2009| |
|
15/03/2009| |
|
18/01/2009| |
|
10/01/2009| |
|
06/01/2009| |
|
05/01/2009| |
|
02/01/2009| |
|
24/12/2008| |
|
24/12/2008| |
|
24/12/2008| |
|
27/11/2008| |
|
27/11/2008| |
|
27/11/2008| |
|
27/11/2008| |
|
03/10/2008| |
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03/10/2008| |
|
03/10/2008| |
|
03/10/2008| |
|
24/09/2008| |
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24/09/2008| |
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20/09/2008| |
|
20/09/2008| |
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18/09/2008| |
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18/09/2008| |
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18/09/2008| |
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18/09/2008| |
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10/09/2008| |
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10/09/2008| |
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08/09/2008| |
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08/09/2008| |
|
17/08/2008| |
|
17/08/2008| |
|
11/08/2008| |
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11/08/2008| |
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11/08/2008| |
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11/08/2008| |
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11/08/2008| |
|
11/08/2008| |
|
13/05/2008| |
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12/05/2008| |
|
12/05/2008| |
|
10/05/2008| |
|
04/05/2008| |
|
02/05/2008| |
|
27/04/2008| |
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27/04/2008| |
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24/04/2008| |
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24/04/2008| |
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24/04/2008| |
|
24/04/2008| |
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24/04/2008| |
|
24/04/2008| |
|
06/04/2008| |
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26/03/2008| |
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20/03/2008| |
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19/03/2008| |
|
13/03/2008| |
|
10/03/2008| |
|
07/03/2008| |
|
05/03/2008| |
|
18/02/2008| |
|
06/02/2008| |
|
03/02/2008| |
|
01/02/2008| |
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01/02/2008| |
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21/12/2007| |
|
21/12/2007| |
|
08/12/2007| |
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08/12/2007| |
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02/11/2007| |
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30/10/2007| |
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30/10/2007| |
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27/10/2007| |
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25/10/2007| |
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20/10/2007| |
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04/10/2007| |
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28/09/2007| |
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28/09/2007| |
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31/08/2007| |
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31/08/2007| |
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30/08/2007| |
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30/08/2007| |
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15/08/2007| |
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11/08/2007| |
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11/08/2007| |
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31/07/2007| |
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28/07/2007| |
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28/07/2007| |
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04/07/2007| |
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30/06/2007| |
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30/06/2007| |
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30/06/2007| |
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30/06/2007| |
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16/06/2007| |
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16/06/2007| |
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16/06/2007| |
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16/06/2007| |
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13/06/2007| |
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13/06/2007| |
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10/06/2007| |
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10/06/2007| |
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10/06/2007| |
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10/06/2007| |
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10/06/2007| |
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10/06/2007| |
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16/05/2007| |
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16/05/2007| |
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03/05/2007| |
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03/05/2007| |
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03/05/2007| |
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03/05/2007| |
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03/05/2007| |
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03/05/2007| |
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30/04/2007| |
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30/04/2007| |
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26/04/2007| |
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26/04/2007| |
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25/04/2007| |
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25/04/2007| |
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25/04/2007| |
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25/04/2007| |
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21/04/2007| |
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21/04/2007| |
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19/04/2007| |
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19/04/2007| |
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19/04/2007| |
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19/04/2007| |
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19/04/2007| |
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19/04/2007| |
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19/04/2007| |
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19/04/2007| |
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10/04/2007| |
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10/04/2007| |
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07/04/2007| |
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07/04/2007| |
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04/04/2007| |
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04/04/2007| |
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02/04/2007| |
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02/04/2007| |
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01/04/2007| |
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28/03/2007| |
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28/03/2007| |
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25/03/2007| |
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25/03/2007| |
|
20/03/2007| |
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20/03/2007| |
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28/02/2007| |
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23/01/2007| |
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23/01/2007| |
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08/01/2007| |
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08/01/2007| |
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08/01/2007| |
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08/01/2007| |
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06/01/2007| |
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06/01/2007| |
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04/01/2007| |
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04/01/2007| |
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29/12/2006| |
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29/12/2006| |
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28/12/2006| |
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28/12/2006| |
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26/12/2006| |
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26/12/2006| |
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26/12/2006| |
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26/12/2006| |
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26/12/2006| |
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26/12/2006| |
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26/12/2006| |
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26/12/2006| |
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26/12/2006| |
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26/12/2006| |
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20/12/2006| |
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20/12/2006| |
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20/12/2006| |
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20/12/2006| |
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16/12/2006| |
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16/12/2006| |
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16/12/2006| |
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16/12/2006| |
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15/12/2006| |
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15/12/2006| |
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14/12/2006| |
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14/12/2006| |
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14/12/2006| |
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14/12/2006| |
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14/12/2006| |
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14/12/2006| |
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12/12/2006| |
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12/12/2006| |
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12/12/2006| |
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12/12/2006| |
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11/12/2006| |
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11/12/2006| |
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11/12/2006| |
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11/12/2006| |
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11/12/2006| |
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11/12/2006| |
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11/12/2006| |
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11/12/2006| |
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09/12/2006| |
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09/12/2006| |
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02/12/2006| |
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02/12/2006| |
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02/12/2006| |
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02/12/2006| |
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25/11/2006| |
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25/11/2006| |
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23/11/2006| |
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23/11/2006| |
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22/11/2006| |
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22/11/2006| |
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21/11/2006| |
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21/11/2006| |
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21/11/2006| |
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21/11/2006| |
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21/11/2006| |
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21/11/2006| |
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11/11/2006| |
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11/11/2006| |
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02/11/2006| |
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01/11/2006| |
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01/11/2006| |
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28/10/2006| |
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28/10/2006| |
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28/10/2006| |
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28/10/2006| |
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20/10/2006| |
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20/10/2006| |
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20/10/2006| |
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20/10/2006| |
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14/10/2006| |
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14/10/2006| |
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07/10/2006| |
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07/10/2006| |
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07/10/2006| |
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05/10/2006| |
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04/10/2006| |
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04/10/2006| |
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04/10/2006| |
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04/10/2006| |
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23/09/2006| |
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23/09/2006| |
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23/09/2006| |
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23/09/2006| |
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23/09/2006| |
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23/09/2006| |
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06/09/2006| |
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04/09/2006| |
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02/09/2006| |
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02/09/2006| |
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01/09/2006| |
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30/08/2006| |
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02/08/2006| |
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02/08/2006| |
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30/07/2006| |
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30/07/2006| |
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27/07/2006| |
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27/07/2006| |
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21/07/2006| |
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20/07/2006| |
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20/07/2006| |
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18/07/2006| |
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16/07/2006| |
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13/07/2006| |
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12/07/2006| |
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12/07/2006| |
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07/07/2006| |
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07/07/2006| |
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06/07/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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28/06/2006| |
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26/06/2006| |
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26/06/2006| |
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21/06/2006| |
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21/06/2006| |
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20/06/2006| |
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20/06/2006| |
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04/06/2006| |
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09/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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18/02/2006| |
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04/02/2006| |
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04/02/2006| |
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29/01/2006| |
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23/09/2005| |
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