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10/12/2010 | Election 2010: Divided Kosovo Prepares for First Poll Since Independence

Global Insight Staff

Kosovo is due to hold a snap general election this weekend, but with traditional voting patterns engrained it is unlikely that new political movements will be given dominance despite the traditional parties failing to present programmes to address the country's woes, which range from economic underdevelopment to high-level corruption.

 

IHS Global Insight Perspective

Significance: Kosovo's electorate is due to go to the polls on Sunday (12 December) to vote in the country's first general election since independence.

Implications: The snap general election comes after months of political instability, exacerbated by tense relations between the ethnic Serb minority and ethnic Albanian majority.

Outlook: The international community will be focusing on the election as pressure mounts for Kosovo to hold a free and fair vote, but with economic concerns growing and uncertainties clouding the participation of ethnic Serbs, the challenges for Europe's newest country are considerable.

Kosovo's 1.6 million voters are scheduled to elect a new 120-seat parliament on Sunday (12 December), in the first general election to be held in the country since it unilaterally declared independence from Serbia in February 2008. The election is taking place almost a year ahead of schedule, prompted by the collapse of the ruling Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK)-Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) coalition in October 2010. Political instability in Kosovo had been rising since the resignation of President Fatmir Sejdiu in September and the subsequent withdrawal of his LDK from the ruling coalition and the loss of a confidence vote. The PDK of outgoing Prime Minister Hashim Thaci appears to be the favourite to win the most votes at the 12 December election despite largely failing to address the concerns of the electorate about Kosovo's stagnating economic development and those of the international community about rising high-level corruption; however, the PDK is unlikely to secure an outright majority. As a result, coalition building will once again be the order of the day in the post-election landscape. Since the collapse of the coalition, both the PDK and LDK, led by newly elected chief Isa Mustafa, have reverted back to their traditionally opposing stances, proclaiming that they would not form a coalition in the post-election landscape. This could complicate efforts to form a new government quickly and efficiently.

A Plethora of Contenders

Kosovo's Central Election Commission has certified 29 political parties and groups and a total of 1,265 candidates to run in the parliamentary election, but only a handful of these are likely to stand a chance of securing enough votes, more than 5% for non-minority parties, to gain a seat in parliament and affect the country's political direction. In a reflection of the relative youth of the country's political parties and their inexperience in dealing with the issues of a sovereign state, none of the parties have offered a coherent plan or strategy to address the country's economic woes which include soaring unemployment and heavy reliance on foreign aid and remittances. With the primary goal of independence from Serbia having been achieved, most of the parties are struggling to carve out a political stance for themselves based on conventional issues affecting the electorate. Instead the parties have taken up the goal of pushing for Euro-Atlantic integration and offering vague pledges to clean up government and clamp down on rampant corruption.

As previously mentioned the PDK appears to be in prime position to reap the benefits of its last four years in power, during which it can claim credit for ushering in independence. It is also claiming to have the best links with Euro-Atlantic institutions, thereby being the most able to oversee rapid integration with NATO and the European Union (EU). The PDK's election slogan is a reflection of this declaring it to be a "party of integration, which will lead Kosovo towards... NATO and the EU". Conversely, the LDK has not come out of the coalition government looking so great. The party has largely been labelled responsible for the collapse of the government. In addition, the LDK is struggling to deal with internal fragmentation which it has been concentrating on, instead of looking to meet the electorate's needs. Nonetheless, it has fought a campaign which has attempted to be all-encompassing, declaring that it would fight for "honest government, economic growth, integration in the EU and prestige... in the world." The traditional third party of Kosovan politics—the Alliance for the future of Kosovo (AAK)—has also struggled in the run-up to the election due to a lack of leadership. The AAK's leader Ramush Haradinaj continues to face war crimes charges at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (ICTY). The party has sought to connect with voters by promising to increase living standards and working for the bettering of everyday life of citizens.

The biggest challenge to PDK dominance is likely to come from two new political forces in the country. The first is the Vetevendosje (self-determination) movement, led by Albin Kurti, which has been steadily building its support base among Kosovo's disenchanted youth. Vetevendosje has presented itself as a party eager to shed the shackles of international tutelage on Kosovo. In addition, it has in the past declared to be in favour of the creation of a Greater Albania, uniting ethnic Albanians from Albania, the Former Yugoslav Republic (FYR) Macedonia, Kosovo, Montenegro and Serbia in one country. This aim is likely to be purely rhetorical, given the international community's refusal to entertain such a concept. The second is the FER (New Spirit) party run by two Western-educated ethnic Albanians looking to present themselves as technocrats able to tackle the country's woes, namely corruption, sustainable economic development, health and education. Despite the seemingly growing popularity of the two new parties, the 12 December election will be a test of the inclination of Kosovo's electorate to break with traditional voting patterns and embrace new ideas, leaders and parties which were never associated with the struggle for independence.

A Minority Population Undecided

Another complicating factor is the 10% Kosovo Serb minority. The minority population has largely refused to acknowledge the 2008 declaration of independence and continues to receive political direction and economic support from Serbia proper. Serbia, alongside representatives of the Serb National Council (SNV), has called on the minority not to participate in the vote, a call which is likely to be abided by the large minority Serb population living in the north of Kosovo. However, the local elections staged last year have indicated that Serbia's influence in boycotting elections appears to be waning on minority Serb populations living in central and eastern areas of Kosovo. As a result, the number of Kosovo Serbs participating in the election could be higher than originally thought. Nonetheless, the main problem of representativeness remains with the parties running for the 10 parliamentary seats reserved for the minority not being true representatives of the Kosovo Serb position.

Outlook and Implications

The first general election in Kosovo will be closely watched for signs that the country is embracing its Euro-Atlantic future by upholding the principles of free and fair democratic elections. The international community will be present to monitor the election, working alongside domestic observers. The lack of a clear divide between the main parties of Kosovo's political scene is a reflection of the difficulty in forging political cleavages now that the goal for which they were founded, namely independence, has been achieved. At the same time, Kosovo's highly traditional society could mean that new political parties struggle to gain traction at the 12 December election. Kosovo is a country beset by problems, including a sluggish economy unable to sustain itself, soaring unemployment, prevalent corruption and inter-ethnic tensions. Sunday's election is unlikely to address these fundamental problems with none of the parties running able to offer a coherent solution or strategy. As a result, the biggest change which is likely to come from the election is a change of government however hopes for rapid Euro-Atlantic integration, economic development or an end to the inter-ethnic stand-off are likely to prove premature.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)

 


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