Global Insight Perspective

Significance

The opening day of the two-day gathering of some 60 countries will focus on economic recovery, debt relief and rebuilding Iraq’s tattered infrastructure. The concluding session of the talks will tackle the more thorny issue of securing Iraq, which feeds into the sectarian concerns likely to be raised by Iraq’s Sunni neighbours.

Implications

Although Iraq’s recovery and reconstruction is the chief concern of the assembled delegates, the meeting will also bring together the United States and its regional detractors, chiefly Iran and Syria. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has not ruled out the prospect of bilateral talks with her Iranian counterpart.

Outlook

The mantra of the summit, dubbed the International Compact with Iraq (ICI) is “integration”, with the conference laying out the challenge to regional security if the violence and sectarian disunity in the country is allowed to persist.

Much at Stake

The bar has been set high as all of Iraq’s neighbours, including Iran and Syria, plus the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, come together in a summit aimed at achieving the necessary political consensus and technical co-ordination critical to reconstructing and securing Iraq. The topics up for discussion today are financial aid, debt relief and the technical input needed to improve public services and rebuild the country’s battered infrastructure. The latest quarterly report by the office of the Special Inspector General for Iraq reconstruction, a U.S. oversight agency, painted a damning picture of a country facing chronic power shortages, sporadic oil production and a lack of clean water and adequate sanitation. Although the challenges faced in today’s session are plentiful, they pale in comparison with the issues delegates are likely to be up against tomorrow when U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki, Iraq’s Hoshyar Zabari, Syria’s Walid Muallem and Saudi Arabia’s Prince Saud al-Faisal sit around a negotiating table and discuss the topic of Iraq’s security.

Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah recently refused to meet Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki—blaming a pre-planned visit of Saudi provinces—in a snub that underlined the extent of inter-regional sectarian mistrust that has been feeding into the violence plaguing Iraq. The Saudis have made no secret of their deep distaste of the political empowerment of the Iraqi Shi’a community, at the perceived expense of Iraq’s minority Sunni population, which has yet to come to terms with the dramatic reversal in its socio-political and economic fortunes since the fall of the former Sunni strongman, Saddam Hussein. Although this has been denied by Saudi officials, there have been suggestions that Saudi Arabia will offer “protection” to Iraqi Sunnis from Shi’a militia groups; many of these Shi’a militias are aligned to political blocs in government and are seen to operate with impunity. Assembled delegates in the Red Sea resort will be acutely aware that containing the violence in Iraq is not a free-standing endeavour, but one that is closely interrelated to other regional grievances and tensions, not least Iran’s nuclear ambitions. The U.S. administration accuses Iran’s Revolutionary Guards of providing sophisticated weaponry to Shi’a militias responsible for attacks against U.S. and British troops. April has been one of the deadliest months for British troops in southern Iraq, testifying to the strained pattern of Anglo-Iranian relations that is being played out in southern Iraq.

The Iranian Merry-Go-Round

The U.S. State Department has expressed an “interest” in improved relations with Iran; Secretary Rice has recently diluted her criticism of Iran, telling reporters today, "if we encounter each other [a reference to her Iranian counterpart] and wander to other subjects, I am prepared to address them at least in terms of American policy". Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad has meanwhile said that he would “welcome honest dialogue” with the United States. The superpower has given the green light to EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana to act as interlocutor on the Iran nuclear issue. Solana met with the top Iranian nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, in talks aimed at forging a compromise over the nuclear file, before the issue returns to the UN Security Council on 24 May). 

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Muallem, whose country is also accused by the United States of meddling in Iraq and Lebanon, will also reportedly meet with Secretary Rice over the two-day summit. Yesterday, Nicholas Burns, the U.S. Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs, attending the six-nation talks on Iran’s nuclear issue in London, addressed a gathering attended by Global Insight and repeated the familiar U.S. line that an improvement of relations with Syria is dependant on the Syrian regime’s severing of support for the Lebanese Shi’a group, Hizbollah, and co-operating with the international investigation into the murder of the former Lebanese prime minister, Rafiq Hariri; high-ranking Syrian intelligence chiefs have already been implicated in the Hariri killing. Hizbollah is currently spearheading efforts to bring down the Western-backed regime of Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Seniora.

Although the last U.S. administration official to meet with Syrian officials was former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage in 2005, the past month has witnessed increased exchanges between Syrian and U.S. officials, with Democrat House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visiting the Syrian capital, Damascus, last month, following in the footsteps of Javier Solana.

Outlook and Implications

Addressing crucial issues such as improving basic public services, the Iraqi oil law and, perhaps more crucially, ending the region-wide sectarian mistrust that feeding into the violence in Iraq require more than a two-day conference at Sharm el-Sheikh. Previous benchmarks for measuring the success of Iraq’s weak central government have come and gone, with the prime minister himself tainted by accusations of sectarianism, an allegation that will no doubt be repeated by attendees at the conference. Maliki has said that the goal of the conference is “not only to reduce Iraq's debt, but also to obtain support for the political and democratic process, as well as support in the battle against terrorism".

To achieve these lofty goals, Iraq’s leader will have to show the leadership and acumen that has so far been visibly lacking. Talk of “integration” and “benchmarks” will now have to be supported by action on the ground if regional and international powers are indeed going to succeed in the crucial task of securing and reconstructing Iraq four years after the U.S.-led invasion of the country.

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