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02/11/2007 | Prospects for Sri Lankan Peace Process Grow Bleaker as Tamil Political Leader is Killed in Air Strike

Global Insight Staff

The Sri Lankan air force today killed S. P. Thamilselvan, the political leader of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) guerrilla group, amid intensifying hostilities in the ongoing civil war.

 

Global Insight Perspective

 

Significance

S. P. Thamilselvan has functioned as de facto prime minister for the LTTE and was the group's main interlocutor at the latest round of peace talks with the Sri Lankan government.

Implications

The killing of the LTTE's political leader is a victory for the Sri Lankan government, with the rebel group now facing the challenge of finding a replacement.

Outlook

The killing is part of a downward spiral as hostilities intensify. The LTTE is expected to carry out retaliatory strikes, making the outlook for a resumption of peace talks even bleaker than before.

A Blow to the Tamil Tigers

The political leader of the secessionist Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) guerrilla group, S.P. Thamilselvan, was killed today in an air strike by the Sri Lankan military, thereby further damaging prospects for a resumption in the peace process. Thamilselvan's death was announced on the pro-rebel TamilNet website, which mourned his loss. The site held that he was killed in an air strike in Kilinochchi, a rebel stronghold in the north of the country, along with five other members of the group. These reports were confirmed by air force intelligence officials. The air force attacked after receiving intelligence reports that LTTE leaders were set to have a meeting at the venue this morning, according to Agence France-Presse (AFP).

Thamilselvan has functioned as de facto prime minister for the LTTE and was also the group's main interlocutor at the latest round of peace talks with the Sri Lankan government in October 2006, which failed. The LTTE's number two had come to be the public face of the rebels, as their official leader Velupillai Prabhakaran tended to remain physically distant from the peace talks, leaving them primarily in Thamilselvan's hands. Thamilselvan is known as a hardliner. He gained increasing influence after the LTTE's former chief negotiator, the more moderate Anton Balasingham, died from cancer last December.

The Downward Spiral Continues

Observers have lamented that the killing of Thamilselvan will put a brake on any prospects for resuming peace talks in the near future. This was a rather unrealistic scenario in any case, given the recent intensification in fighting between the LTTE and the government in the north-east. The breakdown of the ceasefire is largely complete, although it has never been officially ended by either side. It is estimated that some 5,000 people have already been killed since the beginning of 2006, with the total death toll from the civil war having reached a staggering 70,000 since it started in 1983.

To date, 2007 has been marked by an escalation in military operations in the east of the country, which the military announced had largely fallen under its control by July. The military appears intent on flushing out the LTTE from its remaining bases, and has since May 2007 begun to turn its attention to the group's heartland in the north of the country. Meanwhile, in March 2007 the LTTE opened a new phase in its campaign when it opted for an aerial attack for the first time in its history. It had long been suspected that the LTTE was developing an airborne division, and the attack confirmed government allegations that the LTTE had used the ceasefire to smuggle aircraft parts into the country and then construct a number of planes. It has been suggested there are five planes, all of which are thought to be Czech-built Zlin Z-143 single engine aircraft, which have been modified to carry four bombs. All attacks to date have been small-scale, but none have been prevented by the country's air force. In fact, Sri Lanka's supersonic fighter jets do not have the capability to destroy these small-scale aircraft, which can be flown undetected by radar. It took until July for the military to put radar in place to counter the LTTE's aerial capability, which allowed 24-hour operations to restart at the country's only international airport, Bandaranaike International Airport (BIA), outside Colombo.

Outlook and Implications

Killing the political leader of the LTTE is a victory for the Sri Lankan government, which is continuing its efforts to take control of the north-east. It has dealt a major blow to the secessionist group, which now faces the task of fielding a viable successor. While the LTTE is likely to see this as pivotal to maintaining its cohesiveness, it is also important in the context of maintaining dialogue within the Norwegian-sponsored peace process, even though this has been halted for now. Any attempt to restart negotiations will depend in part on the stance of the new political leader. There are hopes that a more moderate figure may emerge, but this is somewhat doubtful in the context of intensifying hostilities. For now, it remains to be seen what course of action the LTTE will take to avenge the killing, but retaliatory strikes are to be expected in the near future. The Sri Lankan government also has problems, after an LTTE suicide attack on the Anuradhapura military base last week inflicted serious damage on its intelligence gathering capabilities by wiping out its fleet of spy planes. The attack, which was reportedly a retaliatory strike for recent territorial losses, came at a time when the Tamil Tigers were widely believed to be on the defensive. It has turned the tables somewhat, with observers doubting that the government will continue military action against the group's de-facto state in the northern part of the island, despite its claims to the contrary. In any case, the attack on the spy plane fleet has bought the Tamil Tigers some time, as it will reportedly take four months and a lot of resources to replace the spy planes, which are needed for vital reconnaissance operations. 

Global Insight (Reino Unido)

 



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