ODS Emerges Most Popular Party

The Czech Civic Democratic Party (ODS) won a landslide victory in the Senate and local elections on 20–21 October, while the Social Democrats (CSSD) finished far behind. Senate elections are held every two years in the Czech Republic, with one-third of the chamber's 81 seats up for grabs each time. If no candidate wins an absolute majority of the vote in his or her constituency during the first round, the top two candidates must compete in a second round, scheduled for 27–28 October. The term in office for Senators is six years.

Of the 27 seats contested this month, 10 are currently held by ODS. Prior to the elections, ODS was only four seats short of a majority in the Senate. Thus, the party needs to win just 14 of the 27 seats to gain a Senate majority. No candidate managed to win an absolute majority in the first round. Nonetheless, ODS advanced in 26 of 27 constituencies that were contested, marking a huge success for the party. The only constituency where ODS failed was in Zlin, in southern Moravia.

In contrast to ODS, CSSD candidates advanced in only 11 constituencies and all of them will face ODS rivals. The Christian Democrats (KDU-CSL) advanced in six constituencies, while the Communists went forward in three and independent candidates in two. Five parties—including the Greens—each advanced in one constituency. The election turnout reached only about 42%.

ODS was also victorious in the local elections, with 30.5% of the vote. CSSD came second with 17%, followed by the Communists with about 12%, KDU-CSL with 8%, and the Greens with 4.5%. The Movement of Independent Candidates-European Democrats (SNK-ED), which is not currently represented in the lower house of the parliament, won 3.5% of the vote. Nonetheless, the situation was quite different in terms of actual mandates. Independents are traditionally the most successful in local elections, and this time was no exception, as they won 60% of all seats in local assemblies. Results for the key political parties were as follows: ODS (11% of all mandates); KDU-CSL (8%); CSSD and KSCM (each with 7%). Turnout in the local elections reached 46.4%.

Symbolically, the most important ODS victory at the local level was that in the capital, Prague, where the party won an absolute majority of 42 seats in the 70-seat city assembly. While ODS won 54.4% of the vote in Prague, CSSD finished a distant second, with 15.9%. ODS was boosted in Prague by the party's deputy chairman Pavel Bem, who many believe will emerge as the next ODS leader.

The ODS victory in the Senate and local elections was not entirely surprising, as CSSD have been troubled by recent allegations of corruption during the 2002–06 term. Most recently, CSSD chairman Jiri Paroubek was accused of backing fraudsters while serving as local development minister prior to his appointment as prime minister in 2005. The latest poll conducted by the CVVM polling agency reports that ODS would have won the general election, had it been held in early October, since 27% of Czechs supported them. This is further testament to the waning popularity of CSSD, as well as that of the various smaller parties with which it is vying for partnerships.

Outlook and Implications

The Czech Republic's lower house has been deadlocked since the June parliamentary elections, with the chamber's 200 seats evenly divided between right and left. ODS leader Mirek Topolanek has thus far been unsuccessful in his efforts to form a cabinet with majority support in the parliament, and rumours have been circulating about his imminent replacement. However, in light of the recent strong results, ODS may be reluctant to replace Topolanek as party chairman or as its prime-ministerial candidate. The ODS success is likely to strengthen Topolanek's position before the party's forthcoming national congress. Furthermore, ODS currently seems well positioned for a strong victory in the second round of the Senate elections on 27–28 October. Should ODS win all 26 of the seats that it is contesting in the second round, the party would control 53 out of 81 Senate mandates, giving it a three-fifths constitutional majority. An ODS majority in the Senate would give President Vaclav Klaus free rein when appointing justices to the Constitutional Court. In an effort to prevent ODS from having a constitutional majority in the Senate, CSSD chairman Jiri Paroubek called on all other parties to form a coalition against ODS in the second round of the elections. The Communists have agreed to support CSSD candidates in the second round. Nonetheless, neither the KDU-CSL nor the Greens have supported Paroubek’s call.

In addition, the national media are highly critical of Paroubek, going so far as to accuse him of making a spectacle of himself in his stubborn reluctance to step down when faced with the prospect of defeat. Paroubek's obstinacy is undoubtedly harming the Czech political scene, as public perceptions of the party as well as the current impasse reflect the waning popularity and credibility of CSSD. Moreover, Paroubek's only allies are the Communists, a party on its way out of the political scene altogether as Czechs struggle to relate to its ageing members and dated policies.

Paroubek has claimed that the election results do not change CSSD's options in terms of government talks. Nonetheless, they do indicate that Paroubek's efforts to stop the formation of a new ODS-led government have not won support for him or his party. Thus, CSSD's poor showing in the Senate and local elections may contribute to a new approach for the party, and possibly to the creation of a new leadership.

Contact: Raul Dary

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