Global Insight Perspective

Significance

Apparently taking the British government by surprise, the release and stage-managed television appearance of the 15 military personnel marked a welcome de-escalation of a dangerous stand-off.

Implications

Ahmedinejad calculated that the publicity coup served Iran's interests better than a continued escalation of the crisis. U.K. Prime Minister Tony Blair can also take some comfort from the fact that his careful diplomatic approach has paid off; it is not yet known whether a deal was struck behind the scenes.

Outlook

While the outcome could certainly have been much worse, the whole saga has not improved the image of Iran in the West and the risk of new confrontations remains high.

Television Spectacle

After 13 days in captivity, 15 British military personnel were released yesterday by Iran, and are currently en route for London. Looking more like the England football team on tour than the "hostages" referred to by U.S. President George W. Bush, the 14 male captives appeared on Iranian television dressed in new suits. They, and the fifteenth captive, Leading Seaman Fay Turney, were greeted by the smiling Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmedinejad, who said the release was a "gift to the British people" at Easter time. It had previously been announced that he would conduct a press conference, but the release came as a surprise. Members of the group were interviewed for Iranian television, where they repeated their "apologies" for their actions and thanked the Iranian people. Turney commented, "Just thank you for letting us go and apologies for our actions, but many thanks for having it in your hearts to let us go free. It was fantastic, we were treated well, we weren't harmed in any way." The 15 were then packed off the VIP suite at the airport, laden with traditional Iranian gifts. On their arrival back in London they will be taken to a "secure location" and debriefed.

Both Sides Claim Vindication

Given that when the crisis first broke there were real fears it could lead to armed confrontation, the outcome was as close to "win-win" as was possible. Ahmedinejad hopes that his gesture will soften his image internationally and ensure key commercial relations with Europe are not broken, while Blair can claim victory for his careful "twin-track" approach. On the one hand, this involved gaining international support for Britain's position (principally within the European Union (EU) and at the UN) while on the other, engaging in cordial bilateral diplomacy with Iran. He told reporters: "We have taken a measured approach, firm but calm, not negotiating but not confronting either," before paying compliments to the Iranian people. His approach has contrasted with the more muscular foreign policy associated with the U.S. administration. Both Iran and the United Kingdom claim that they have had international law on their side—the dispute over whether the sailors were really in Iranian waters may never be conclusively resolved. Ahmedinejad's move also seems to have played well with the restless Iranian population. Many will have relished challenging the United Kingdom's potency, but there was also anxiety about the impact of a prolonged stand-off. The release was carefully stage-managed to ensure it did not resemble a capitulation.

So was a deal done behind the scenes? More often than not this is the case in such situations, but the British authorities did seem genuinely surprised by the timing of the release. There is speculation that the granting of access to five Iranian "diplomats" arrested in Iraq three months ago was part of the deal, but the United States is denying this. It is not known whether there were other pledges made, although the United Kingdom has said it will work on ways to avoid a repetition of such crises. Significantly, it says it has not ruled out negotiations over boundary disputes in the northern Gulf and the Shatt al-Arab. Nonetheless the government insisted yesterday, "We didn't get into negotiation. This is not a conditional release".

Outlook and Implications

Ahmedinejad has staged an impressive publicity coup, with the world seeing a "compassionate" side to him in contrast to his usual demonic portrayal. However, the crisis has done little to improve Iran's image as an unpredictable and dangerous regional player. The war in Iraq has helped strengthen Iran's regional influence, but Ahmedinejad has generally chosen to bait the West rather than leveraging his influence more constructively. It remains to be seen whether the release of the sailors heralds a more conciliatory diplomatic stance, but the potential for a new crisis remains high. Of particular danger would be any detention of U.S. military personnel. The international stand-off over Iran's nuclear programme meanwhile persists, and there is no sign that Iran is about to capitulate on this front. An interesting development during the crisis has been Syria's contrasting eagerness to build closer relations with the West. The country claims to have helped mediate, and is relishing the current visit of Democratic Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi. U.S. officials have themselves had greater contact of late with Syria, although Bush has maintained his tough rhetoric. Ahmedinejad will have been watching Syria's tactics with interest, but it is too early to tell whether he plans to continue his own charm offensive.

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