Below is the original article published earlier today.

Various statements from Egyptian officials snowballed yesterday, leading to a widespread expectation that President Hosni Mubarak would step down; his decision to remain in power has raised the prospects for more intense protests, and the possibility of violence and further chaos on the political scene.

IHS Global Insight Perspective

Significance: Mubarak defied Egyptian and international expectations that he would step down and either hand over power to Vice-President Omar Suleiman, or to the military—instead, Mubarak delegated some powers to Suleiman and vowed to remain in power until September.

Implications: Mubarak’s move has not deflected calls for his resignation; rather, his position has become entrenched, and so has that of those who demand that he step down. After the speech, protesters in the capital, Cairo, and elsewhere immediately vowed to sustain the pressure on the president and the government, amid growing calls for Suleiman to also step aside.

Outlook: The coming period will be critical in determining whether the solution offered by Mubarak and the government will ease tensions sufficiently to allow for a managed transition of power in September. Considering the disconnection between Mubarak’s pledges and the demand on the streets, this appears an unlikely scenario; meanwhile, all eyes will be on the military as the only institutional force able to depose Mubarak.

After a 15-minute delay to the announced air-time, Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak went on state TV last night to address the Egyptian nation—and indeed, the observing world. His statement had been acutely anticipated after statements from several high-standing Egyptian officials that indicated Mubarak’s speech would be his last as president. The secretary general of the ruling National Democratic Party (NDP), Hossan Badrawi, said to the BBC that he hoped Mubarak would step down that same day. In another BBC interview, Prime Minister Ahmad Shafiq said that Mubarak’s potential resignation was being discussed. These statements contributed to raising expectations of the president’s imminent resignation, causing thousands more to flock to Tahrir Square in the capital, Cairo, where dedicated protesters have camped out for days.

Ahead of Mubarak’s speech, television footage from the square showed scenes of jubilation and a festival-like atmosphere as many protesters expected Mubarak to step down. Their disappointment and anger once the speech was aired was unequivocal. Mubarak’s message, that he was committed to hearing and fulfilling protesters demands and that he was “determined to live up to my promises with all firmness and honesty and … totally determined to implement (them), without hesitation or reconsideration”, appeared lost on those he was presumably attempting to placate.

In other parts of his speech, Mubarak admitted that all governments made mistakes and vowed that there would be a day-to-day transition of power leading up to September, when presidential elections are due to be held. Critically, he also said he would hand over some powers to Vice-President Omar Suleiman.

Crushed expectations quickly paved the way for fresh resolve on the part of protesters to keep the pressure on the government and on Mubarak, calling for millions to march across the country after Friday prayers. Should protesters gather in considerable force, as observers widely expect them to, there is a strong possibility of renewed violence and clashes between security forces and protesters. Many protesters yesterday warned in comments to international media outlets that Mubarak’s position would result in bloodshed. In comments to CNN after the speech, opposition figure Mohamed ElBaradei said that he feared more violence and warned that "Egypt will explode. Army must save the country now".

The Military's Dilemma

Mubarak’s message to Egyptians was clear, reflecting his refusal to step down from power after three decades. What remains critically unclear is the army’s position. The military has attempted to stay above the fray as much as possible, seemingly remaining politically neutral. Nevertheless, this position is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain, and Mubarak’s unpopular decision not to step down has raised the pressure on the military to take some form of action to bring the crisis to a managed end. Yesterday, some observers began speculating about a possible coup as a result of a communiqué issued by top generals which said that the military would “take steps to protect the nation”, and that they would “support the legitimate demands of the people”. The communiqué was issued after a rare meeting of the Supreme Council for the Armed Forces which was overseen by Defence Minister Field Marshal Mohamed Hussein Tantawi and Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces Lt Gen. Sami Hafez Enan; the latter even said before protesters in Tahrir square that their demands would soon be met. The military’s messages were evidently incongruous with Mubarak’s.

This raises several possibilities, including that Mubarak had in fact intended to step down but had a last-minute change of mind, and that the military too was caught off guard. It is also possible that public statements by the military and other officials were aimed to increase political pressure on Mubarak to step down voluntarily. A further possibility is that the military was supportive of Mubarak’s decision in an effort to buy more time—potentially for a more directly managed outcome. Clearly, without access to unavailable information regarding closed-door negotiations, it is impossible to draw firm conclusions. Nevertheless, the fact remains: should the unrest escalate beyond current levels and the pressure on the government increase further, the military is the only institution able to manage the situation—potentially through a coup. While this may seem a dramatic scenario, it is worth highlighting that Egypt’s political system came into being through the military coup of 1952. The system has never shed this mould, although it has been led towards a more civilian guise under Mubarak’s rule.

The longer the situation drags on, the more precarious the military’s position will become. Many analysts have highlighted the possibility that the military will split. Others suggest that failing to “take sides”, the military risks jeopardising the popularity it holds in the eyes of many Egyptians. Media reports and protester allegations of the military’s use of force and backing of Mubarak has already begun to erode its position to some degree. The military’s every move will therefore be closely watched at home and abroad. Importantly, Egypt’s state news agency MENA reported that the Supreme Council for the Armed Forces was meeting again today, and would afterwards issue an important statement. Once published, the statement did not clarify the military’s position: it said that the military would support steps for a transition of power, vowing to lift the state of emergency “as soon as current circumstances end”. The statement also guaranteed that free presidential elections would be held, and that constitutional changes would be made. Taken together, this certainly suggests that the military, at least, is supportive of Mubarak’s position during a transition period. It is likely that protesters will react to the communiqué accordingly.

Outlook and Implications

In refusing to step down, Mubarak has entrenched his own position—setting himself apart from the ousted Tunisian leader Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali, who after several weeks of protests fled Tunisia on 14 January. But in so doing, Mubarak has also further alienated many Egyptians and consolidated the resolve of those who are openly protesting against his presidency. Meanwhile, in seeking to appear neutral, and publicly backing a gradual transition, the military risks compromising its reputation and potential political role.