Death and Destruction

Devastation from Typhoon Ketsana continues to mount in South-East Asia. Just days after wreaking havoc in the Philippines, where it struck on Saturday (26 September), Ketsana advanced through to Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos, forcing tens of thousands of people to flee the worst flooding in the region in a decade. So far, the rising floodwater and landslides have submerged one village after another, killing at least 11 people in north-eastern and central Cambodia and 55 in Vietnam. There are no reported casualties in Laos yet. However, these figures are believed to rise further as at least 10 people remain missing in Vietnam and rescue operations have been badly hampered in all three countries due to severe damage to infrastructure and inadequate relief and rescue resources. While the Philippines and the Mekong region are both prone to tropical storms and seasonal flooding, the sheer scale of Ketsana's destruction has caused chaos in the region and the governments are seemingly unprepared and are struggling with the scale of relief efforts.

More than two million people are estimated to have been left homeless by the typhoon overall. After heavy rains, subsequent flooding and landslides have caused serious damage to houses, the road network, and agricultural land in Cambodia and Vietnam. According to government sources, in central Vietnam approximately 168,500 people have been evacuated from the six coastal provinces, and in Cambodia, the evacuation estimate stands at thousands. In the Philippines, over 370,000 people are seeking shelter, food and clean water from temporary evacuation camps that have been set up in schools, churches, and government buildings. While temporary shelters have been established, they are short of clean water, food, and clothing. In addition, there is growing fear that the spread of disease could make the crisis more severe. The typhoon is also likely to put further pressure on countries' economies, given the severe damage to infrastructure.

Relief Efforts Hampered in Philippines

Four days after Tropical Strom Ketsana first hit the Philippines' main island Luzon, dumping the heaviest rains in over 40 years, the Philippines also remains in chaos. More than 40 centimetres of rain poured over metropolitan Manila and 25 neighbouring provinces on Saturday (26 September) causing devastating six-metre floods. Severe flooding and landslides have left at least 246 people dead, 37 are still missing, and more than two million are displaced, according to the latest official count. As the authorities are trying to move on with the relief and rehabilitation, their efforts have been complicated by continued flooding, power outages, and severely damaged infrastructure. It has also been reported by Al Jazeera news that there has been no sign of any government assistance or clean-up operations in the north of the capital, Manila. Anthony Golez, the deputy administrator of the National Disaster Co-ordinating Council (NDCC) also admitted on Monday (28 September) that "We are used to helping one city…Our assets and people are spread too thinly". In Manila, 80% of health centres have been destroyed, while the east of the capital is covered by 30 centimetres of mud, making it impossible to distribute food and medicines for the homeless and those that require most acute help. Amid the intensifying crisis, President Gloria Arroyo announced yesterday that she would donate two months of her salary towards the relief and rehabilitation operations. Talking at a cabinet meeting in Manila, aired on a government television channel, she also ordered the cabinet to do the same. In addition, Arroyo opened her official residence, Malacanang Palace, to the people in an effort to aid the hundreds of flood survivors from the poorest sectors of society.

Outlook and Implications

As the full scale of the disaster is starting to unfold, the governments are trying to come to terms with their assistance needs. Given the severe destruction to the infrastructure, the typhoon is likely to place further pressure on economies already battered by the global financial crisis. The infrastructure in the Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Laos is among the worst in South-East Asia, with such problems being regularly cited as a deterrent to investment by business. While significant progress has been made in these areas in recent years, the destruction caused by Ketsana, is likely to have a negative effect on ongoing building projects. In the Philipppines, the estimated damage to the infrastructure is more than US$96 million. Answering the appeal for international humanitarian assistance, Australia, the United States, France and Japan are already pouring aid, including food, money and technical assistance, into the Philippines. Despite this, the government faces a huge task to clean up and to put its rehabilitation projects in place.

In addition to economic costs, the devastation could also feed into the criticism against the ruling governments. This could be the case particularly in the Philippines, which has been worst hit by the typhoon. Despite the massive rescue operation, criticism has begun to mount that Philippine President Gloria Arroyo's government was not prepared for flooding, which has caused delays in rescue efforts, even though the Philippines is prone to numerous natural hazards, including flooding and approximately 20 tropical storms each year. The last natural disaster took place in June 2008, when Typhoon Frank and the subsequent flooding and landslides claimed more than 20 lives and caused serious damage to houses, infrastructure, and livestock, particularly in the southern region of Mindanao. While President Arroyo's ruling Lakas-Kampi-CMD coalition government has this time been swift to call for international assistance, its ongoing efforts to show determination, sympathy, and commitment to relief and rehabilitation efforts will also be monitored closely by the people. As Arroyo's announcement and decision to open her residence yesterday demonstrates, she has clearly recognised this. The government's efforts are particularly important for the ruling coalition given that its actions, if perceived in a negative light, could lead to falling voter support for the approaching May 2010 presidential election. The Lakas-Kampi-CMD's popularity has dropped significantly following allegations of Arroyo's vote-rigging in 2005, as well as various subsequent corruption allegations.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)