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25/04/2007 | U.S. Democrats Agree on Iraq Withdrawal Demands as Losses Mount

Global Insight Staff

The U.S. administration is under intense pressure over Iraq after Democrats in Congress agreed on demands for an early pull-out, as news broke of one of the most deadly single attacks yet on U.S. forces.

 

Global Insight Perspective

Significance

The U.S. administration has staked a huge amount on its "troop surge" strategy in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, hoping to turn the tide of the war and disarm its increasingly-noisy critics back home.

Implications

There are conflicting assessments of progress in Baghdad, but any good news has been overshadowed by a relentless series of high-profile attacks; the latest, near Baquba, has killed nine U.S. troops.

Outlook

President George W. Bush has vowed to veto the Democrats' Iraq spending legislation and "win the war", but he badly needs some better news from Iraq soon if he is to regain the initiative and buy some more time.

Violence, Uninterrupted

Yesterday a suicide bomber attacked a military checkpoint near Baquba, capital of the restive Diyala province, killing nine U.S. troops and injuring another 20. This is one of the most deadly single ground attacks on coalition forces since the invasion four years ago, and comes after a month punctuated by numerous large-scale attacks. In the worst single incident, more than 200 Iraqis were killed last week (18 April) in simultaneous suicide explosions targeting a market square in a mixed Shi’a-Kurdish neighbourhood in Baghdad. There are some signs that the controversial U.S. troop surge has reduced sectarian infighting in pockets within the capital, but heavy violence has been concentrated on the outskirts instead. There, insurgents, as well as some Shi’a militia groups, are thought to be regrouping and transforming themselves into more agile striking units. U.S. forces are also more vulnerable given their greater numbers and dispersion across the city.

The stubborn insurgency will occupy the thoughts of Iraq’s neighbours as they meet tomorrow in the Egyptian resort of Sharm el-Sheikh in yet another conference aimed at achieving a regional consensus on finding a way out of the situation. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, in a reappraisal of Iran’s role in Iraq, has called on the Islamic Republic’s foreign minister to attend tomorrow’s gathering and has said the recent spate of deadly attacks in Baghdad bear the hallmarks of al-Qaida and are unlikely to be the work of Iranian-supported Shi’a militia groups. U.S.- and Iraqi-led efforts to quell the violence have also been complicated by the resignation of all six Shi’a ministers loyal to cleric Moqtada al-Sadr. Although Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has said that the walk-out by Sadr loyalists will enable him to fill the posts with technocrats, the exclusion of Sadr’s bloc could pave the way towards a resumption of the Shi’a militia violence and retaliatory attacks against Sunni insurgents.

Protests Over Security Wall

The United States’ construction of a controversial three-mile wall aimed at sealing off the restive Adhamiya neighbourhood in Baghdad has irked Maliki, who said that the U.S. venture bore disturbing parallels with “other walls”, a reference to the separation wall being erected by Israel in the West Bank. Maliki’s criticism of the wall was voiced in Egypt as the Iraqi leader readies for tomorrow’s regional security conference, which will be attended by Sunni heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Egypt. Both these countries have voiced concerns at the treatment of Iraqi Sunnis at the hands of an emboldened Shi’a leadership. Although the new U.S. ambassador to Iraq, Ryan Crocker, has acknowledged Iraqi grievances over the construction of the security wall, the United States has not indicated whether it will abide with Maliki’s call to halt its plans. Abu Firas al-Mutairi, a representative of the Sadr movement in Najaf, told the New York Times: “The Sadr movement considers building a wall around Al Adhamiya as a way to lay siege to the Iraqi people and to separate them into cantons. It is like the Berlin Wall that divided Germany…This step is the first step toward dividing the regions into cantons and blockading people there. Today it happens in Adhamiya. Tomorrow it will happen in Sadr City,” referring to the cleric’s stronghold in Baghdad.

Mounting Pressure Back in the U.S.

Back in the United States, the Democrats have become increasingly vociferous over their opposition to the war and their desire to withdraw troops. This stance was always going to be risky—politicians "undermine our troops on the ground" at their peril—but they are calculating that public support for the war has fallen to such a degree that voters will agree it is time to cut the superpower’s losses. There have nonetheless been many competing strategies heard from different lawmakers and for a time it seemed the party would back down and opt for a less-confrontational approach. In the event, this has not transpired; yesterday, Democrat negotiators from the House of Representatives and the Senate reached agreement on war-funding legislation. This demands that the withdrawal of U.S. troops starts as early as July, and that U.S. combat operations are ended no later than March 2008. Benchmarks are set for the Iraqi government to meet, including a militia disarmament programme, reductions in sectarian violence, the easing of rules that purged government of former Ba’ath party members and a new oil-revenue-sharing law. If these benchmarks are not met by 1 July, U.S. troops would start returning home immediately. The goal would then be to complete the withdrawal by the end of the year. With the benchmarks met, troops would start returning no later than 1 October, a process completed by 1 April. Some troops would remain afterwards to provide protection for U.S. facilities and diplomats, to pursue terrorist groups and to train and equip the Iraqi security forces. This gives some flexibility as there is no stated limit on the numbers required for these duties. The Democrats insist that their plan is not designed to end the war as such, but rather to force a strategy shift.

The bill covers some US$124 billion in spending necessary to sustain the war, and a showdown with the administration is now in prospect. Bush has promised to veto the bill but that would leave the Iraq operations in potential limbo. The funding, which includes US$96 billion for Iraq and Afghanistan, is actually more than the administration requested, but Bush has consistently refused to be bound by a fixed timeline. He argues that this is artificial and highly irresponsible, and it has been suggested that Democrats are over-stepping their constitutional authority. The administration knows that the Democrats will never allow troops in the field to run out of funds, so the war would be sustained in some form. However, a prolonged stand-off and temporary funding approvals is an unwelcome prospect. The bill also covers a number of domestic-spending items, notably agricultural assistance, but some measures such as funding for peanut storage were dropped after Republicans ridiculed Democrat special interests.

Outlook and Implications

The killing of nine U.S. troops yesterday has propelled Iraq back to the top of the U.S. news agenda and this will hinder the administration's efforts to talk up recent progress. It has been trying to reverse the erosion of public support, but high-profile attacks inevitably grab most attention. The Democrats' spending bill meanwhile looks almost certain to be vetoed, but Bush's surge strategy will become increasingly hard to justify if better news does not start emanating from Baghdad. Signs that U.S.-Iranian relations are improving offer some encouragement, but the latest regional conference looks unlikely to produce a significant breakthrough. The political situation within Iraq meanwhile remains precarious, and U.S. impatience with the government's efforts to curb violence and bring different groups together is growing.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)

 


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