The Plot Thickens

Afghan immigrant and Colorado resident Najibullah Zazi pleaded guilty earlier this year to planning suicide bomb attacks on New York's subway, the most serious terrorist plot seen in the United States since the attacks of 11 September 2001. He planned to stage his attack close to the eighth anniversary of the latter. Following Zazi's plea investigators continued to explore his connections, and the extent to which al-Qaida organised the plot. Yesterday a new indictment was announced that greatly broadens the case, naming top al-Qaida leaders and linking the plot with similar efforts in the United Kingdom and Norway. The announcement came on the same day that the United Kingdom was commemorating the five-year anniversary of the suicide attacks on board London Underground trains and a bus that left 56 dead (including the four bombers).

The indictment says that Zazi's plot was directed by senior al-Qaida leadership in Pakistan, and that it was related to a scheme to stage new attacks in the United Kingdom. The al-Qaida figures include 34-year-old Saudi-born Adnan El Shukrijumah, one of three "leaders of al-Qaida's 'external operations' programme dedicated to terrorist attacks in the United States and other Western countries". Another leader is identified as Saleh al-Somali, presumed killed by a 2009 drone strike in Pakistan. A further individual identified in the indictment is "Ahmad", the so-called facilitator who was in touch with Zazi and the U.K. plotters via email. He is also believed to have taken Zazi and two co-conspirators to a training camp in Pakistan's Waziristan. One of these two alleged co-conspirators, Adis Medunjanin, is awaiting trial in the United States. He was arrested in January after an alleged attempt to crash his car into another on the Whitestone Expressway in Queens, New York, in a final bid to carry out a suicide attack. The second, Zarein Ahmedzay, pleaded guilty in April to conspiracy and providing material support to al-Qaida. The three are said to have met with El Shukrijumah in the Waziristan camp between September and December 2008 and recruited to stage attacks. El Shukrijumah is at large, with a US$5-million reward on his head. He will reportedly be added to the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI)'s most-wanted list later today.

The U.K. Connection

As mentioned above, the indictment alleges that Ahmad (whose status is currently unclear) was also in touch via email with Britons Abid Naseer and Tariq Ur Rehman. They were detained in 2009 over an alleged plot to bomb the city of Manchester between 15 and 19 April. Naseer is said to have been in Pakistan at the same time as Zazi. Naseer was rearrested yesterday following a U.S. extradition request linked to the new indictment. Rehman is not currently in custody, but is named in the U.S. indictment. Naseer, Rehman, and several other suspects were released shortly after their original arrests due to insufficient evidence. They were detained prematurely after the country's then-top counterterrorism official, Bob Quick, was photographed carrying documents that included details of the case. These details were picked up by the media when the photographs were enlarged.

The Norway Connection

Today, it has also emerged that the U.S. authorities have linked the same al-Qaida planners (notably Salah al-Somali) to individuals based in Norway. U.S. and Norwegian officials, quoted in the international media under condition of anonymity, have said that three men arrested today are members of al-Qaida and have been under surveillance for a year. They are thought to have planned attacks using powerful hydrogen peroxide bombs, similar to those that Zazi intended to use.

Although the risk remains limited, the Norwegian Police Security Service (PST) has identified a threat to the country from radical Islamist terrorism. This is mainly due to Norway's links with the United States and NATO and its role in the war on terrorism, including troop deployments to Afghanistan. In February 2008 the Norwegian police announced that they had arrested three men on suspicion of financing terrorism and preparing terrorist acts. These arrests occurred at the same time as similar raids in Sweden during which a further three people were arrested on similar charges. The threat level also escalated in 2006 subsequent to the Muhammad cartoon controversy, where a Norwegian publication republished a series of sketches of the Prophet Muhammad originally released in the Danish newspaper Jyllandsposten. In protest, Norwegian embassies in Tehran (Iran), Damascus (Syria), Beirut (Lebanon), and Jakarta (Indonesia) were attacked.

Outlook and Implications

The allegations add to the growing perception that it is not extremists acting alone who pose the main terrorist threat to the West, but rather individuals actively directed by militant groups in the Pakistan/Afghanistan border region. A series of plots have come to light in recent months, although they have thankfully failed due to incompetent execution by the would-be attackers or interception by the authorities. In the latest of the U.S. incidents, Faisal Shahzad tried to detonate a bomb in New York's Times Square on 1 May. He pleaded guilty last month and revealed that he had received training from al-Qaida-allied Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The U.S. authorities are consequently on high alert for new plots and it is clear that extremists in Pakistan and elsewhere are having some success in recruiting and directing U.S. and European citizens. A significant number of Americans are known to have met with the Taliban in Pakistan, while others have made contact with Somali jihadists and with Yemeni radicals associated with charismatic preacher Anwar al-Awlaki (a U.S. citizen). These cases have led to growing concern in the United States that a serious "home-grown" jihadist threat has emerged, casting doubt on previous arguments that the integration of immigrants would inoculate the country against the kind of radicalisation seen in some European countries that have large, marginalised Muslim populations. Like their European counterparts, U.S. nationals involved in violent jihad come from diverse backgrounds. Many are from immigrant families; others are converts to Islam. While those with links to established groups are typically the most dangerous Western jihadists, the availability of firearms in the United States ensures that "leaderless" terrorists are potentially just as lethal.

The arrests in Norway have drawn fresh attention to the threat of terrorism there, albeit still relatively low. Military deployments to Afghanistan, and Norway's involvement in the Prophet Muhammad cartoon controversy, have raised the country's profile as a potential target for Islamist terrorism. Although the international nature of the latest alleged plot illustrates the external threat, it is likely that the suspects were Norwegian nationals, again highlighting the domestic nature of the threat facing Norway, as well as neighbouring Sweden and Denmark.