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05/01/2009 | Risks Heighten as Israel Launches Gaza Ground Assault

Global Insight Staff

Thousands of Israeli troops and scores of tanks pushed deeper into the war-battered Gaza Strip yesterday despite warnings over the worsening humanitarian crisis in the territory; the ground assault has upped the stakes and raised questions over the efficacy of Israel’s military strategy.

 

Global Insight Perspective

 

Significance

The ground operation comes after eight days of punishing air strikes and takes place despite international concern that the Palestinian death toll, which had already hit 500, may climb further. The Israeli government now also risks losing soldiers to Hamas ambushes as they move deeper into the territory.

Implications

The assault, which is set to "last many days", comes as the Israeli government rebuffs intensive diplomatic efforts calling for an immediate ceasefire. Given that the operation has been six months in planning, it is highly unlikely to be brought to a halt until at least some of the objectives have been realized.

Outlook

The distressed residents of Gaza are expected to face a difficult few days and possibly even weeks ahead. Questions are likely to emerge over Israel’s plans for Gaza should Hamas be weakened to the extent that it can no longer rule. Furthermore, the violence casts serious doubts over the prospects for inter-Palestinian reconciliation, the future of Israeli-Palestinian peace process, and a two-state solution.

Closing In on Gaza

Israeli ground troops continued their advance into the Gaza Strip today, backed by fighter jets and bombardments from naval ships, widening the conflict with Hamas. Israeli soldiers have been engaged in fierce pitched battles with militants as they move to control vast swathes of land outside the territory’s main cities which have been used to launch rocket attacks on Israeli towns. Such attacks have killed four Israeli civilians since Israel’s military operation began on 27 December. Hamas has remained defiant however, vowing to unleash "hell" to avenge Palestinian deaths. It also threatened the capture of "more Shalits" in reference to the Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit who was kidnapped during a cross-border raid by militants in 2006. The operation, which has the wider goal of destroying Hamas’ infrastructure, has reportedly already killed dozens of militants. The first Israeli military casualty was also confirmed yesterday, just hours after the assault began; this has heightened concerns that the battle could prove costly for Israel in terms of military casualties. An army spokesperson confirmed today that Israeli fighter jets had hit more that 130 targets in Gaza overnight including a mosque in the Jabaliah refugee camp and a number of buildings believed to be used to store arms stockpiles. Shortages of basic medical equipment and food is continuing spark alarm.

The Evolving International Response

Efforts to secure a new UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza faced renewed setbacks of Saturday (3 January), after the United States objected to an exiting draft calling for the immediate cession of Israel’s operations. The delay has been perceived by Israel as a green light to persist with its operations. The intensification of the conflict has, however, sparked a flurry of diplomatic activity with an increasing number of countries officially breaking rank with Washington’s policy of "wait and see". A Russian presidential envoy and an EU ministerial mission headed to the Middle East to try to bring new impetus to the search for a ceasefire. British prime minister, Gordon Brown, echoed European concerns when he said Israel's ground operation was a "very dangerous moment" in the conflict, and he called for increased efforts to rapidly secure an end to the violence. Meanwhile, countries in the Middle East which have stepped up security have remained deeply nervous over the prospects of further domestic unrest about the plight of the Palestinians. The Israeli government is expected to rebuffs intensive diplomatic efforts. Given that the operation has been six months in planning, it is highly unlikely to be brought to a halt until at least some of the objectives have been realised.

There continue to be mixed opinions as to exactly how well-equipped Hamas are to weather the storm and how it will confront the Israeli assault. It is unclear exactly how much Iranian weaponry has been smuggled into Gaza during recent lulls in the fighting, although it is clear that many have vastly exaggerated Iran’s role, especially those who refer to the Sunni Hamas as a proxy for Shi’a Iran. Hamas has described the next stage of the assault as a war of "existence" and there are reports that Hamas’ ranks are swelling with ordinary Gazans of all ages and walks of life who have joined the movement to confront the Israel offensive.

The View from the United States

As already indicated, the position taken by the United States could prove critical for the trajectory of the conflict. Outgoing president George W. Bush has remained true to his reputation as a stalwart Israel supporter, squarely blaming the conflict on Hamas. The expectation that he would do so may have helped spur Israel to react so strongly at this point—it is nervous that the U.S. position could shift under incoming president, Barack Obama. The latter expressed strong support for Israel throughout his presidential campaign, but he is expected be more cautious about military action. To the disappointment of governments in Europe and the Middle East, Obama has remained mute on the crisis so far, but it is set to pose his first major foreign-policy challenge once in office. Israeli defence minister Ehud Barak has already cited comments made by Obama last year as implicit justification of the assault: "If somebody was sending rockets into my house, where my two daughters sleep at night, I’m going to do everything in my power to stop that." Obama will face a huge challenge balancing the competing interests and appearing as an honest broker. He has promised to reach out to the Muslim world and even speak directly to "rogue" governments, but he will meet with a great deal of scepticism from all sides initially. For the current administration, the fighting represents a bitter end to its hopes of securing a peace deal before leaving office; Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice spent much time during 2008 engaged in fruitless negotiations. Bush leaves office with not only the economy in crisis, but also a key element of his diplomatic agenda unfulfilled.

Outlook and Implications

As the implications of this assault continue to reverberate through the region, it looks unlikely that the international community will be capable of putting enough pressure on Israel to halt operations which have been six months in planning. However, the strategy is risky for Israel, and could see it embroiled in a drawn-out and bloody conflict with no guarantee of victory. There are continuing questions over what exactly Israel hopes to achieve from the operation in Gaza. Although the stated aim is to weaken Hamas and its capabilities what will happen to Gaza should Hamas—which was brought to power in the Palestinian Territories first-ever democratic elections—be defeated? How does it propose filling the power vacuum? Does Israel hope to re-impose the rule of the de-legitimised Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas on Gaza?

These questions will for the time being remain unanswered. Abbas, who will continue to be president despite the official expiry of his mandate this month holds little sway over the residents of Gaza and his approval ratings will have been knocked further following allegations that he, along with Egypt, are complicit in operations to see the Islamist movement toppled in the territory. Furthermore, the operation remains bad news for Palestinian national reconciliation and is likely to exacerbate splits with the two rival camps. Israeli operations risk escalating tensions in the West Bank and sparking a popular uprising even among those that had been sympathetic to the more moderate Fatah faction. The Israeli/Palestinian peace process meanwhile has ground to halt and prospects for a unified Palestinian state is becoming an ever-distant dream.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)

 



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