Sea Change

President Barack Obama yesterday confirmed earlier media reports that his predecessor's contentious plan to build a long-range missile-defence system in Central Europe has been shelved. This was one of former president George W. Bush's most significant defence initiatives, but it ran into determined opposition from Russia. The latter saw the plan as part of the drive to draw Central European states into the West's embrace, and argued that it undermined key principles of arms reduction agreements. The United States disputed these arguments, and stressed that it was rogue states in the Middle East and elsewhere that were the target, not Russia. The current U.S. administration has always been cool on the missile defence programme, but until now it had refused to be drawn by the Russians on its plans.

Aside from the diplomatic implications of Bush's programme, there were doubts raised over whether it would ever be properly effective, and whether the costs were justified. The new more modest strategy initially focuses on a system designed squarely to counter short- and medium-range Iranian missiles. The latter country is adding to its increasingly fearsome arsenal, recently conducting a successful test of the Sejil-2 missile. This is thought to have a range of some 1,200 miles and importantly uses solid fuel. This makes the missile easier to store, move, and fire at short notice. Iran has also been working on missiles capable of inter-continental range, but these are further off.

The new U.S. plan has four phases. The first would see shorter-range SM-3 interceptors deployed by 2011 aboard ships using the Aegis system. This would come seven years earlier than the deployment of the longer-range interceptors envisaged under Bush's plan. The second phase would see an improved version deployed in 2015 on both ships and on land. Two more generations would be launched in 2018 and 2020, the latter capable of targeting inter-continental missiles. The second phase could see the smaller interceptors based in the Czech Republic and Poland. The SM-3 system has already been tested successfully, although whether it would cope in a real-life situation remains in some doubt. It should be noted too that the anti-missile bases already built in the U.S. states of Alaska and California will be maintained. Their major focus is missile attacks originating in North Korea or elsewhere in Asia, although their effectiveness is also in some doubt.

International Reaction

• Russia: The move has predictably run into criticism from Republicans in the United States who argue that President Barack Obama has caved into Russian demands and that he is failing to defend the United States against key threats. It will certainly be welcomed by Russia for reasons already described above, but it is unclear as yet how far the country will move to reciprocate. This will become clearer when Russian president Dmitry Medvedev travels to meet Obama in New York next week. Medvedev gave a measured reaction yesterday: "We appreciate the responsible approach of the U.S. president toward implementing our agreements. I am prepared to continue this dialogue." The absence of overt triumphalism will have come as a relief to the U.S. administration. Central European and CIS states will nevertheless be concerned that the Russian leadership is emboldened by the decision and that it could start to throw its weight around more actively. Further NATO expansion remains highly controversial for Russia, and Georgia's alignment is also highly sensitive. The United States will hope that Russia may now be more amenable to helping it pressurise the Iranians to retreat from their nuclear ambitions.
• Poland and the Czech Republic: The decision to scrap the plans comes as a blow to Poland and the Czech Republic, who have used their participation in the programme to cement a close relationship with the United States. A radar system was to be installed in the Czech Republic, while Poland would house 10 interceptors. Obama called both countries' leaders yesterday to offer reassurance, and to stress that there is still the possibility in the longer run that the plans will be resurrected. A promise to base a Patriot missile battery in Poland is also to be honoured. The U.S. president publicly reiterated the U.S. commitment under Article 5 of the NATO treaty to come to their defence in the event of an attack. Both the Czech and Polish governments put a brave face on the announcement yesterday and were quick to assure the public and journalists that their ties with the United States remained as strong as ever. The U.S. shift was in any case widely anticipated and therefore did not come as a shock. Czech President Vaclav Klaus indeed claimed he had known that an abandonment was in the pipeline for some time. Whether or not they showed it, however, the supporters of the shields will have been disappointed. Recent Czech and Polish governments invested a lot of political capital as they ran the gauntlet of domestic and some European criticism for allying themselves with Bush on the matter. The shield divided domestic opinion strongly, with supporters happy to see Russia kept at bay and opponents citing the plans as another form of military occupation. There will be some concern in the United States that the change of plans could complicate efforts to secure Central European assistance in overseas military missions. Czech former deputy prime minister of European affairs, Alexandr Vondra, has warned that the change of heart could lead to a reduction in the number of Czech soldiers contributed to U.S.-led missions abroad, notably in Afghanistan. All in all, while the news certainly disappointed the governments, ties with the United States are far too important to compromise over the issue. Rather, the current governments will take it on the chin and focus on the consolation offers.
• Israel: Obama's announcement was also watched closely in Israel. U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates acknowledged that he hoped the more explicit shift to guarding against Iranian missiles (and the shorter time frame) will "reassure them that perhaps there's a little more time here". This is a veiled reference to concerns that Israel will launch a unilateral strike against Iranian missile facilities, with all the danger that entails for regional security.

Outlook and Implications

Obama's decision is bold, but it should be underlined that he is not abandoning the idea of a missile shield as many of his more liberal supporters would have liked. The focus is now very much on shorter-range missiles, rather than threats to U.S. soil that were the focus of former president Ronald Reagan (1981-89)'s much-trumpeted "Star Wars" initiative. The latter was always more significant diplomatically than physically, and this was indeed also the case for Bush's variant. In a sense the latter achieved its desired result, helping to bring Central European states into NATO and keeping Russia's influence at bay. Obama's shift may help to cement good relations with Russia, but it could also end up emboldening the latter country and causing greater diplomatic complications down the line. If reassurance has been given to Israel about U.S. determination to counter the Iranian threat, then this is positive. The prospect of an Israeli strike on Iran has always been an alarming one.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)