The Fishermen's Disguise

Reports suggest that between three and five suspected LTTE boats slipped through security at the port today to infiltrate the Dakshina naval facility, with their occupants passing themselves off as fishermen. Accounts vary, but it appears that at least two boats laden with explosives were driven into the side of at least one military vessel, with the occupants of the other boats heading ashore while exchanging gunfire with military personnel. Information is still being clarified, so it is not entirely clear how many casualties there are. At least two people are believed to have died, a further two sailors are reported as missing and at least 12 are said to have been injured. It is assumed that the attackers have been killed, with no reports of any detentions. Agence France-Presse (AFP) reports that three naval gunboats were destroyed. The attack comes just two days after a suicide bombing in the north-east of the country at Habarana (190km north-east of the capital, Colombo), in which over 100 people died and 150 others were injured. Most of the victims were naval personnel.

Tourists and Trade Targeted

The authorities have been quick to stress that no merchant ships were affected, with the military the focus of the attack. Notably, AFP reports that the military has been using Galle to import arms and ammunition, following threats against the country's main port at Colombo. Understandably, the authorities have been keen to contain any threat against Colombo's port, due to its key importance for regional trade. Attacks in the south, which is home to the Sinhalese majority, have been rare throughout the LTTE's insurgency. Apart from sporadic attacks on the capital, Galle has only been attacked once before, and the LTTE has always been diligent in avoiding areas associated with tourism. This allowed the tourism industry to continue to function from the start of the conflict in 1983 right up to the signing of the ceasefire in 2002.

However, there are signs that this sentiment is changing. Attacks in the north-east this year have affected tourists and non-military personnel, resulting in deaths in several cases. At this stage it is little more than speculation, but it is possible that today's attack on Galle may mark the start of a campaign in the south. It is unclear whether any such campaign would target the tourism industry or if—as with today's attack—broader insurgent activity would simply damage the trade.

The LTTE's Motives

There are a number of explanations for the LTTE's current activities including:

Bolstering its position: When two warring groups are heading towards talks it is common for one or both sides to escalate activity in an effort to secure the upper hand. The LTTE has suffered a number of significant losses in personnel, equipment and territory in recent months, and some sort of dramatic event was needed to underline its continued strength. In some respects, this is all the more important for the group after the international pressure it has received this year, as the LTTE can show that despite having its fundraising capabilities curtailed and being banned by the EU, it is still a significant threat to the Sri Lankan state. The Galle attack was well executed in some ways. Although it appears to have caused relatively little damage, it has still managed to raise speculation over whether there is a new direction in the LTTE's tactics.

Raising communal tensions: It has been suggested that the LTTE is looking to foment tensions between the Sinhalese and Tamil communities. Such tension already exists and underlines much of the conflict, but some observers have argued that today's attack on the Sinhalese heartland is designed to create open communal conflict. After the bombing small-scale rioting broke out in Galle, with Sinhalese hardliners attacking Tamil-owned businesses, but further action was stopped when the authorities imposed an indefinite curfew on the city. Anti-Tamil riots were the catalyst for the start of the LTTE conflict. It can only be supposition, but perhaps the group is seeking a repeat of such riots to give it a reason to end the ceasefire.

Retaliation for naval and military offensives: Some sense of retaliation must also inform the group’s recent activity. The LTTE has suffered considerable losses this year, and the group is looking to fight back. There has also been festering distrust between the military and LTTE ever since there was a split in the guerrilla group in 2004, as its breakaway faction reportedly received military support.

Outlook and Implications

Envoys from Japan and Norway are currently in the country trying to maintain both sides’ commitment to forthcoming talks. Furthermore, Richard Boucher, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Central and South Asian Affairs, is due to arrive on 19 October to discuss the situation, along with a number of other pressing issues. There is considerable pressure from the international community, and particularly the country's aid donors, to get talks back on track and reduce the level of violence. Following this week's attack in Habarana, both sides restated their commitment to holding talks. There remains the suspicion however, that commitment to dialogue and negotiation are lacking, and that dialogue is only being agreed to reduce international pressure.

Contact: Raul Dary

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