IHS Global Insight Perspective

Significance: It is clear that President Hosni Mubarak is determined to cling on to power and defy the demands of the protesters, offering only piecemeal changes.

Implications: The protesters—tens of thousands of whom remain camped out in the capital’s main Tahrir Square—are unlikely to back down, with most saying they will not leave until the president resigns.  

Outlook: The situation remains volatile, and how the deadlock will be broken remains unclear. What remains certain, however, is that the army will play a pivotal role in determining the country ‘s fate.  

New Cabinet Line-Up

In an apparent attempt to ease public anger, Egypt’s President Hosni Mubarak has announced a cabinet reshuffle. However, the line-up remained largely unchanged, with the exception of the widely disliked Interior Minister Habib al-Adly and the finance and culture ministers, Youssef Boutros-Ghali and Farouq Hosni, respectively. A new intelligence chief was also appointed.

On the streets people reacted angrily to the move, with many saying they would accept nothing less than the resignation of the president. The president is clearly choosing to move cautiously, making minor announcements one at a time and seeing what the reaction on the street is, in the hope of offering as few concessions as possible. He has generally kept a low profile and has avoided directly addressing the protesters, much to their frustration. What is clear, however, is that he remains intent on riding out this difficult storm.

Egypt is currently in its eighth day of mass protests. The protests are the biggest the country has seen for decades and have left the country in turmoil. Lootings have occurred across the country and police stations, and ruling-party offices and shops have been vandalised. Protesters descended on central Cairo’s Tahrir Square today, where thousands have already been camping out for the start of what has been termed “the million-man march”. The government has cancelled train services to the capital and major cities, in a bid to choke off the protests. 

The Army’s Pivotal Role 

People defied a curfew and have stayed at Tahrir Square, which remains barricaded by the army. Although the police have now returned to some areas of the capital, they are not present at the square, where tensions could easily flare. Protesters initially welcomed the army on the streets as a substitute for the police, and have urged the army to side with them. The police have been criticised over the excessive use of force and widespread rights abuses. In its statements, the army has chosen to adopt a different tact from the government and we are beginning to see divergences from the official line taken thus far. A military spokesman said on television for the first time yesterday that the protests were indeed legitimate.  

Outlook and Implications 

The tension remains extremely high, and how the deadlock will be resolved remains unclear. The president remains determined to cling on to power, while it seems the protesters will not stop until their demands are met.  

IHS Global Insight has examined the following three scenarios and believes that although none can be ruled out, scenario two seems the most likely. 

Scenario one: Mubarak stays and some concessions are given, but no elections are promised, while force is used to subdue protesters.

• This scenario could lead to significant unrest and a wave of violence, which could see a significant number of casualties.

• The regime could rule with an iron fist, but its legitimacy would have dissipated, making it vulnerable to further attempts to remove the president from power.  

• The regime could come under pressure internationally and find itself increasingly isolated.

Scenario two: Mubarak stays temporarily and institutes major reforms, paving the way for an orderly transfer of power by the year-end.

• This would be by far the most favourable option, with the likelihood of violence significantly reduced.

• This scenario would be the best for foreign investors, because we would be unlikely to see a sudden break in policies, with some continuity expected from the ruling party.

• It would also give the opposition an opportunity to co-operate and begin to formulate a clear strategy for jointly governing the country.   

Scenario three: Mubarak is forced to leave quickly as the protests grow in size and intensity; the army appears to step back.

• Levels of violence could be high initially. The vacuum and confusion that is likely to ensue could possibly lead to insecurity and temporarily lawlessness.

• Given the weakness of the opposition, a government would take a long time to be forged. We could see the rise to prominence of groups such as the Muslim Brotherhood, which remains anti-Western.