Longstanding tensions in the Inclusive Government were brought to the fore by the gaoling of MDC-T Treasurer and Deputy Minister of Agriculture-designate Roy Bennett on 15 October 2009 in anticipation of his trial for banditry and terrorism. His subsequent release on 16 October came too late to put the genie back in the bottle (see Zimbabwe: . Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai announced at a press conference in the capital, Harare, on the same day that his party "shall forthwith disengage from ZANU-PF [Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front] and in particular from Cabinet and the Council of Ministers [while remaining in government] until such time as confidence and respect is restored".

According to Tsvangirai, the MDC-T is faced with an "unreliable and unrepentant" partner in Mugabe's ZANU-PF. He explained that despite SADC mediation and various meetings between Zimbabwean power-sharing party leaders, the following issues remain unresolved:

• the appointment of provincial governors.
• Mugabe's unilateral appointment of Gideon Gono and Johannes Tomana as Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe governor and attorney-general respectively.
• Mugabe's unilateral changes to ministerial portfolios.
• Roy Bennett has not been sworn in as deputy agriculture minister.
• the lack of a six-month review of the power-sharing agreement or ministerial appointments as agreed.

Elsewhere movement has been slow:

• Democratisation of the media.
• Constitutional reform.
• Establishing a land audit.
• Establishing the rule of law—in addition to observing the persecution of members through the selective application of the law, the MDC claims to have evidence of the "extensive militarisation of the country through massive deployment of the military and the setting up of bases of violence".

Echoing arguments from the March 2008 election, Tsvangirai stated that his party holds the popular mandate and must therefore assert its dominance in government. He added that returning to government will hinge on the resolution of all outstanding issues and the substantial implementation of the power-sharing agreement.

President Mugabe has not made any public comment and ZANU-PF does not appear to know its next step with any certainty. According to presidential spokesperson George Charamba, the MDC-T action is "needless excitement" and the next cabinet meeting will go ahead tomorrow as scheduled. Moreover, decisions taken there will be binding since "cabinet does not function through a quorum".

Outlook and Implications

An expedited election timetable is the most apparent alternative to Zimbabwe's enfeebled power-sharing arrangement. However, as the MDC itself has noted, reform of the political climate and national institutions over the past seven months has been limited. Since the pace of transformation will hardly accelerate without power-sharing, there is little reason to believe that ZANU-PF incumbency across state media, the security sector, electoral agencies and the judiciary will allow for a free and fair contest in 2010. Opponents of ZANU-PF will likely be exposed to the same levels of violence witnessed during the March-June 2008 election period; especially if the MDC is correct in its assertion that "bases of violence" have been set up across the country.

Tomorrow's cabinet meeting could bring matters to a head. However, there is room for pause. The current standoff is not ideal for either party. For the MDC, as stated, political reforms have not progressed to the extent necessary to ensure an even playing field for democratic and violence-free political competition. For ZANU-PF, although power-sharing has achieved a degree of economic stabilisation not seen for a decade, the party's international pariah image is still in full effect. Targeted sanctions by the European Union, the United States and elsewhere have not been removed. Tsvangirai's stand could bring him closer to the party base, which has complained ever more vocally about the failings of sharing government with ZANU-PF.

Consequently, ZANU-PF has little guarantee of electoral victory without coercion, in which case international isolation would resurge. For now, eyes will turn to regional mediators The SADC troika has been tasked with addressing the outstanding issues and must quickly set a timetable to meet with the power-sharing principals.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)