Global Insight Perspective
Significance	The launch and timing of the initiative serve both Korean political leaders. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il is pursuing reconciliatory moves ahead of an expected victory by the GNP in the South Korean presidential elections, while South Korean president Roh Moo-hyun is keen on securing a positive political legacy before he stands down.
Implications	If successful and momentum is created for further reconciliatory efforts, the meeting could provide an electoral platform for the country's leftist parties, which have so far failed to become a convincing political force in the run-up to the presidential election and may in such a case force the opposition GNP to take a more Pyongyang-friendly stance.
Outlook	Acting in tandem with the six-party talks on ending North Korea's nuclear programme, the summit is part of a wider engagement strategy and is likely to aid denuclearisation efforts on the part of the international community.

Inter-Korean Summit: Round II

The political leaders of North and South Korea, Kim Jong-il and Roh Moo-hyun, are to hold a historic summit in the North Korean capital of Pyongyang later this month, according to statements released simultaneously by the two sides today. The summit scheduled for 28-30 August will be the second of its kind to be held between the two Koreas, coming seven years after former South Korean president Kim Dae-Jung attended a landmark summit with Kim Jong-il in Pyongyang. This ushered in an era of rapprochement between the neighbouring countries that still technically remain at war with each other, with no official peace treaty having been concluded to end the Korean War of 1950-53. Following the 2000 summit, the two sides commenced joint economic projects as well as family reunions of those separated in the partitioning of the Korean peninsula in 1953. The South Korean presidential Blue House heralded the August summit as “substantially opening the era of peace and prosperity between the two Koreas”. North Korea has expressed similar enthusiasm, with the North’s official Korean Central News Agency holding it to be of “weighty significance in opening a new phase of peace on the Korean peninsula”. Head of South Korea’s National Intelligence Service Kim Man-bok has reportedly visited Pyongyang twice this month to make plans for the summit, and the two sides are now set to attend preparatory meetings in the North Korean border city of Kaesong. As yet no details about the summit agenda have been released, but the focus seems set to be on North Korea’s denuclearisation programme and efforts to put in place a peace regime on the Korean peninsula, according to preliminary statements.

Peace Pursuit or Election Ploy?

The announcement of the upcoming summit comes amid North Korea’s growing engagement with the outside world as the Pyongyang regime has proceeded with efforts to denuclearise as pledged under the 13 February Nuclear Agreement for which it is to receive economic and energy aid. The move has been unequivocally welcomed by the international community, notably the other nations participating in the six-party talks on ending North Korea’s nuclear programme—the United States, China, Japan and Russia. On the level of domestic politics, the initiative has, however, triggered a divided response. The ruling Uri Party, which was established by Roh, who later severed ties with it to offset the burden of growing discontent with his rule on the fracturing party, has, along with other liberal politicians, welcomed the reconciliatory measures vis-à-vis the North. The unpopular South Korean president’s push for a second Inter-Korean Summit is undoubtedly an attempt to secure his legacy as his tenure is set to expire in February 2008, with presidential elections scheduled for December this year. His predecessor Kim Dae-Jung was awarded a Nobel Peace Prize for his sunshine policies of engaging North Korea, although later having to make an apology for the large amount of funds that had been channelled to the North ahead of the talks.

With presidential elections fast approaching and the liberal parties, notably Uri, having failed to materialise as a coherent political force in the elections race, Roh is keen to carve out a lasting political legacy for himself and set the country firmly on a path of reconciliation before the conservative Grand National Party (GNP) is likely to take over power in the upcoming elections. The GNP, which has advocated a tough line on North Korea, has meanwhile criticised the summit as a sinister political ploy to boost the Uri Party’s popularity ahead of the presidential elections. Critics of the government have alleged that the Roh administration has struck a number of “inappropriate deals” with the North ahead of the talks, but the presidential Blue House has denied such allegations, saying that it was North Korea’s initiative, according to the Korea Herald.

Outlook and Implications

The summit is a positive move that has the potential to reduce tensions on the Korean peninsula. It is likely to culminate in the issuing of a bilateral declaration reaffirming the two sides’ commitment to denuclearisation on the peninsula, along with South Korea’s commitments to continue varying kinds of aid, including food and energy to the impoverished north. Acting in tandem with the six-party talks on ending North Korea’s nuclear programme, it is part of a wider engagement strategy and is likely to help denuclearisation efforts on the part of the international community, with Roh expected to call for the Pyongyang regime to abandon its nuclear programme. The participants in the talks kicked off working group negotiations yesterday to put in place the details of the 13 February Nuclear Accord, with special focus being on the delivery of energy aid worth hundreds of millions of U.S. dollars in return for the shutdown of the Yongbyon nuclear reactor.

The launch and timing of the initiative serve both Korean political leaders: Kim Jong-il is likely to have pursued the reconciliatory move ahead of an expected victory by the GNP in the presidential elections, with the opposition party being known for taking a hawkish line on the North. Meanwhile, the initiative serves to aid in securing a positive political legacy for Roh and if successful it could provide an electoral platform for the country’s leftist parties, which have so far failed to become a convincing political force in the run-up to the presidential elections. If the summit proves to be successful and a momentum is created for further reconciliatory efforts, it could also create a fait accompli for the GNP if this expectedly wins the presidential elections as public support for such an initiative may force it to take a somewhat more pro-Pyongyang-friendly stance, which has undoubtedly been one of the North Korean political leadership’s considerations in pushing for the meeting. However, much depends on North Korea’s continued commitment to deliver on its de-nuclearisation pledges, as well as the line taken by the government that will be brought to power in South Korea’s presidential elections later this year.