China's President Hu Jintao arrived in the U.S. capital yesterday for a full state visit, providing an opportunity to gauge the fast-evolving relationship between the two economic and geopolitical giants.
IHS Global Insight Perspective
Significance: There have been many bilateral encounters
between the two countries' leaders, but this visit is being given the full
state pomp and will see the signing of numerous commercial accords.
Implications: China's rapid economic ascent and huge
holdings of U.S. debt are fuelling insecurity in the latter country, as well as
tensions between those who advocate closer co-operation and those who advocate
greater protectionism.
Outlook: Although President Barack Obama has been known
to take a tough line on certain issues with China, his guiding principle
appears to be pragmatism; the summit is consequently unlikely to see
significant tension.
Gauging Relations
U.S.-Chinese relations are now a global preoccupation
given the latter's rapid economic ascent. This week sees the United States roll
out the red carpet for China's President Hu Jintao, who is granted a rare state
dinner tonight. This is only the third such event President Barack Obama has
hosted during his two-plus years in office. The visit provides an opportunity
for the two countries to put a gloss on relations which are often fraught.
Sharp disagreements continue over issues such as China's currency policy, U.S.
monetary policy, trade disputes, and human rights, but these will almost
certainly be played down. It is clear in any case that U.S. leverage over China
is steadily diminishing as their economies become increasingly interdependent
and as China's diplomatic and military clout grows. The United States needs
Chinese help in many of its foreign policy objectives, including curbing Iran's
nuclear drive, preventing conflict on the Korean peninsula, and securing peace
in Sudan. Little concrete progress is expected in these areas; instead the
progress will mainly be seen along a more practical, commercial vein. The raft
of energy deals announced this week between the countries is described in some
detail below. In other sectors, U.S. and Chinese firms are similarly pushing
for greater access to the respective markets. The U.S. administration has
argued that it will only grant greater access for Chinese firms if there are
reciprocal measures on China's part. Hu will meet with the U.S.-China Business
Council tomorrow to discuss such issues, and during his stop in Chicago he will
visit a Chinese-owned auto parts plant.
Energy Co-Operation a Key Focus
The state visit has been accompanied by the signing of a
host of energy co-operation deals between U.S. and Chinese companies,
fundamentally aimed at promoting technology development in clean energy
sectors.
• Perhaps the most significant deal is a joint venture
(JV) established between China's largest coal company, Shenhua Energy, and U.S.
electricity giant General Electric (GE). This establishes a JV company to sell
industrial coal-gasification technology licences in China. For GE,
collaboration with Shenhua promises expanded access to the Chinese market,
which—with its large coal reserves and rapidly increasing gas demand—is an
attractive investment location. Politically, coal gasification is a useful area
in which to collaborate. The sector allows energy-hungry China to more
efficiently use its domestic coal base, mitigating its hunger for reserves
overseas. The technologies support China's efforts to reduce its reliance on
burning coal for power generation. Development of the sector provides
commercial opportunities for U.S. companies and supports U.S. efforts to temper
China's emissions growth.
• American Electric Power Co. (AEP) has signed two more
deals during the visit. The first is with China Huaneng Group—the country's
largest electricity generator. The agreement allows the U.S. firm to evaluate
carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology developed by Huaneng Group. The
Chinese company has already launched pilot CCS projects in Beijing and
Shanghai, and AEP is keen to assess their commercial effectiveness. AEP's
second agreement is with China's largest power-transmission company, State Grid
Corp. of China, and envisages joint evaluation of power transmission and
distribution technologies. This should potentially support both countries'
efforts to develop "smart grid" transmission networks, which use
digital technologies to save energy, reduce costs, and improve reliability.
• China Power Investment Corp. and Alcoa Inc. are looking
to collaborate on wind and solar projects, and in the development of
state-of-the-art aluminium smelters in China, although no specific projects
have been announced. Alcoa Inc. might be eyeing China's aluminium sector
through the deal, but might also be seeking to use renewable generation
technologies to lower its dependence on carbon-dioxide emitting forms of
generation for aluminium smelting. Development of renewable generation
facilities linked to smelting facilities could reduce associated costs in
future, if China's carbon tax plan reaches fruition by 2012.
• Three U.S. companies—Duke Energy Corp., AES China, a
subsidiary of AES Corp., and UPC Management—also entered into clean or
renewable energy agreements with companies from China.
• Finally, Westinghouse Electric Co. stated that it has
signed a two-year extension of a co-operation agreement with China State
Nuclear Power Technology Corp. for continued deployment of its third-generation
AP1000 reactor. Westinghouse will provide service and maintenance for the
reactor, but the agreement also covers technology and strategic investments.
Outlook and Implications
This is likely to be the last state visit by Hu to the
United States, with a power transition getting under way in China that will
culminate with a new president in 2013. This shift will probably affect the
tone of bilateral relations, but the process is gradual and the two sides have
plenty of time to adapt. Hu's imminent departure has arguably weakened his
influence, another reason why the summit is unlikely to see significant
progress, or fireworks.
The raft of agreements signed between U.S. and Chinese
companies support two main aims. The first is to advance technologies that
improve energy-sector efficiency and environmental performance. Being the two
largest carbon-dioxide emitters in the world both China and the United States
are under pressure to put their economies on a cleaner energy footing. Their
willingness to collaborate in this field underlines the pragmatic aspect of the
U.S.-China energy relationship. This pragmatic element is partly due to the
second aim of the agreements—to provide commercial opportunities for U.S. and
Chinese companies in two of the world's largest energy markets. Interestingly,
the agreements suggest that the technology flow in the energy sector is
becoming less one-sided, with Chinese companies—like China Huaneng Group—also
providing technologies to U.S. companies. This is testament to how quickly
China is overcoming technical challenges in the energy sector, a fact which
might be worrying to the United States. The agreements signed cannot completely
mask the difficulties in the energy relationship between the two countries. In
September 2010, the United Steelworkers filed a petition claiming that China
had ignored international trade agreements when developing clean energy
technologies. China's unwillingness to let international companies participate directly
in its first offshore wind farm tender and in the country's fledgling shale gas
bidding round has probably built upon U.S. grievances over China's
protectionist tendencies. These grievances go to the heart of the complex and
thorny issue of to what extent China should be allowed to utilise its low
labour costs, undervalued currency, and revenues to increase its economic
competitiveness, which is unlikely to be resolved soon. Nevertheless, the
mutually beneficial energy agreements signed today are a signal of hope that
energy co-operation between the two countries—a vital platform for tackling the
larger emissions problem—remains intact.
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02/09/2006| |
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01/09/2006| |
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30/08/2006| |
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02/08/2006| |
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02/08/2006| |
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30/07/2006| |
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30/07/2006| |
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27/07/2006| |
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27/07/2006| |
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21/07/2006| |
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20/07/2006| |
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20/07/2006| |
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18/07/2006| |
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16/07/2006| |
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13/07/2006| |
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12/07/2006| |
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12/07/2006| |
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07/07/2006| |
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07/07/2006| |
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06/07/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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29/06/2006| |
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28/06/2006| |
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26/06/2006| |
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26/06/2006| |
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21/06/2006| |
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21/06/2006| |
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20/06/2006| |
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20/06/2006| |
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04/06/2006| |
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09/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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18/02/2006| |
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04/02/2006| |
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04/02/2006| |
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29/01/2006| |
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23/09/2005| |
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