The Stand-off

Rumours of a possible military coup have been swirling about the capital, Suva, for some time, and have intensified in recent weeks. Bainimarama is currently out of the country inspecting Fijian peacekeeping troops in Egypt. Ahead of his departure, he made fresh warnings about a possible coup as the government pursued the passing of three controversial pieces of legislation. The military chief's absence appeared to provide the authorities with the ideal opportunity to remove him completely from the political picture. On Tuesday (31 October) President Josefa Iloilo, at the behest of the government, called for Bainimarama's dismissal, and offered his post to Lieutenant-Colonel Meli Saubulinayau. Unfortunately for the government the move backfired, with Saubulinayau rejecting the opportunity and instead lending his backing to Bainimarama.

Since then, tensions have escalated, with a war of words breaking out between the prime minister and the military commander. Bainimarama has called for Qarase to resign, but this has been roundly rejected. Qarase stated in a national address yesterday (1 November) that: "I declare emphatically that there is absolutely no question of me resigning in response to the current situation or of my government stepping down". Qarase has reportedly offered Bainimarama face-to-face talks, and is in dialogue with the Pacific Islands Forum, presumably to discuss what support the group can provide the government with. He has also called an emergency meeting of the Great Council of Chiefs. This tribal body carries some weight and was instrumental in resolving tensions and differences following the coups in 1987 and 2000. For his part, Bainimarama has spoken on New Zealand radio, saying that "the last thing we want is violence, the last thing we want is bloodshed, but Qarase is pointing us in that direction". The military commander is reportedly prepared to hold talks with the prime minister, but has stated that his demands must be accepted. These include stopping the contentious legislation and the resignation of a number of cabinet members.

Adding to the tension, the military illicitly seized a 7.5 tonne shipment of ammunition from Suva's docks yesterday, despite the fact that the government had withheld the delivery over fears that it might be used in a coup attempt.

International Response

Qarase suggested earlier this week that his administration would consider calling on other nations in the region, notably Australia and New Zealand, to intervene directly if the military attempted a coup. The prime minister has swiftly put the issue on the regional agenda, with the current Pacific Islands Forum expected to decide whether an emergency meeting of the region's foreign ministers is required to debate the issue. Interestingly, both Australia and New Zealand have sent warships to the area, ostensibly to evacuate their nationals in the event of a coup. New Zealand's Prime Minister, Helen Clark, has been unequivocal in her support of Qarase and his administration, calling on Bainimarama to step down. Australia has been less bold but still warned against a coup, with Foreign Minister Alexander Downer revealing that Australia is holding talks with other states to determine what assistance can be offered. For its part, the United States has reportedly threatened to cut aid to Fiji if a coup takes place.

Military Involvement in Politics

The military's influence over politics appears strange in what is a reasonably stable and functioning democracy. This influence can be charted back to the first coup in 1987, which introduced the military into the political sphere, and it has never really left since. In fact, its role has grown to some degree, with successive military commanders viewing their job as protecting not merely national security but also the country's democratic values. It is on this basis that Bainimarama has waged his campaign against the Qarase government, to the point where he is now holding the government to account over several pieces of legislation. The situation has come to the rather bizarre point where the military is prepared to oust a democratically-elected government because it feels that the administration is damaging the country's political and social fabric.

Previous History

Bainimarama and Qarase find themselves in a strange situation. The military commander almost lost his life in the May 2000 coup, which saw coup leader George Speight oust the country's first ethnic-Indian prime minister and government. Once the military had gained control of security and the political environment, Bainimarama appointed Qarase as the interim prime minister, with Qarase then going on to win his own mandate during elections in 2001. In the intervening years, relations between the two men have soured to the point where they are now both seeking each other's removal from office. The key piece of legislation that has created this tension relates to the May 2000 coup. Bainimarama and other critics contend that the bill will provide amnesty for those responsible, which runs against his long-running campaign to bring them to justice. Supporters of the legislation regard it as a necessary step in the process of healing the nation, and in drawing the coup's lengthy fall-out to a close.

Outlook and Implications

Bainimarama has previously threatened to oust the government, but this week's attempts to remove him have raised the stakes. He is due back in the country before the week's end, but may stay away longer if he feels his position is fundamentally threatened. At this stage, there are a number of possible outcomes to this drama including:

Another attempt to force Bainimarama from office: A number of reports state that evidence of sedition is being gathered against Bainimarama, suggesting that court action against the military commander is possible. In rejecting the president's call for his dismissal earlier this week, Bainimarama has confirmed the belief that he can act beyond the law. As such, any legal move against him could prompt a military backlash.

Talks between the government and military: Both Bainimarama and Qarase have engaged in colourful rhetoric in recent days, but they have also expressed their desire to prevent a coup. If genuine negotiation takes place, supported by the Great Council of Chiefs and perhaps also by regional players, it is possible that some compromise can be reached on Bainimarama's demands. That said, this would not resolve the long-running tension between the two men, and between the military and government.

A military coup: A coup remains a distinct possibility, but its success depends on a number of issues. The military chief has proven to be a controversial leader and public support for him is not high. As such, it is unclear just how much of the military would back another coup. Furthermore, there is mounting regional opposition to further political turmoil in Fiji, and the attitude towards regional intervention has also changed significantly since 2000. Nations, led by Australia, have shown a greater propensity to intervene in the affairs of other states, the most notable example being the Regional Assistance Mission to the Solomon Islands (RAMSI). Although Australia probably does not want to have another regional issue on its hands at the moment, given the unrest in the Solomon Islands and Papua New Guinea, intervention cannot be ruled out.

Over the longer term, the resignation of one of these two key individuals is required. Even if this current bout of instability is headed off, the underlying tension will remain. Expanding on this, the military's role in Fijian political life requires re-examination. However, rumoured plans by Qarase to have the military’s size reduced by around one-half would only cause a backlash in the current atmosphere.