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30/07/2006 | DR CONGO-Election 2006: DRCongo Looks Ahead to Historic Election with Hope and Fear

Global Insight Staff

The Democratic Republic of Congo will hold its first democratic election in over 40 years this Sunday, which, if it goes well, will transform the country into a new political era.

 

Global Insight Perspective

Significance

The election is the first real opportunity the citizens of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRCongo) have ever been given to choose their own political leaders.

Implications

Sunday's historic ballot, as well as the follow-up election that will take place in the coming months, has received a strong backing from the international community, which sees the stabilisation of the vast, naturally endowed central African country—bordered by nine countries—as the key for regional peace and security.

Outlook

However, with the build-up to the election having been marked by an escalation in political tension and real concerns over the transparency and legitimacy of the ballot and the uncertainty whether the losers—who are part of the current transitional government—will accept outcome, the historic event may yet turn sour.

The DRCongo is currently being administrated by a transitional government of national unity, which formally took power in July 2003 following the signing of a landmark peace accord between the country's then-government and its political and armed opponents which signalled the end of the country's five-year (1998-2003) civil war. Sunday's parallel ballot will see the electorate vote for the country's next head of state as well as representatives in the 500-seat National Assembly. The legislative election will feature a total of 9,500 candidates seeking to represent the 169 constituencies spread over the country's 11 provinces. The vote is expected to feature some 267 political parties, with only a handful of the parties contesting the ballot nationally.

Runners and Riders

The main electoral focus will undoubtedly fall on the presidential ballot, which will feature a total of 33 candidates. Incumbent President Joseph Kabila of the People's Party for Reconstruction and Democracy (Parti du Peuple pour la Reconstruction et la Démocratie), running on behalf of the Alliance of the Presidential Majority (L'Alliance de la Majorité Présidentielle) coalition, is by far the best-known candidate and favourite to win the ballot. Others in the race include Vice-Presidents Jean-Pierre Bemba of the Congolese Liberation Movement (Mouvement de Liberation du Congo – MLC) representing the Rally for Congolese Nationalists (Regroupement des Nationalistes Congolais) coalition, Azarias Ruberwa of the Congolese Rally for Democracy-Goma (Rassemblement Congolais pour la Democratie-Goma – RCD-Goma), and Arthur Z'Ahidi Ngoma representing a coalition of civil society groups; Roger Lumbala, former cabinet minister and leader of the RCD-National; former central bank governor Pierre wa Syakassighe Pay-Pay, standing on behalf of the 17-party alliance, the Coalition of Congolese Democrats (Coalition de Démocrates Congolais); RCD-Liberation Movement leader and Regional Co-operation Minister Antipas Nyamwisi Mbusa standing on behalf of the Forces for Renewal (Forces du Renouveau) coalition; Justine Kasavubu M'poyo, a former minister and diplomat, daughter of the late Joseph Kasavubu, the first president of what was then Zaïre, representing the Democrats Movement (Mouvement des Démocrates); former science and research minister Gérard Kamanda wa Kamanda; veteran former rebel leader Antoine Gizenga, president of the Unified Lumumbist Party (Parti Lumumbist Unified); and Francois Joseph Nzanga Ngbangawe Mobutu, son of former dictator Mobutu Sese Seko.

Conspicuous by his absence from the candidate list is veteran former prime minister Etienne Tshisekedi, whose Union for Democracy and Social Progress (Union pour la Démocratie et le Progrès Social – UDPS) party is boycotting the election. The UPDS, which also refused to become part of the transitional power-sharing government that has been running the country for the past three years, is sitting out the polls after the country's independent electoral commission (CEI) refused its request to have the voter registration process reopened. The party, which also abstained from last December's constitutional referendum, wanted the CEI to reopen the registration process to allow its supporters to sign up.

Logistical Challenge

Some 25 million out of the country's 60-million-strong population are eligible to vote in Sunday's election. Despite its vast size, equivalent to that of Western Europe, the DRCongo has only 320 kilometres of paved roads outsides of its cities, so the actual task of delivering the ballot papers to all of the country's 46,718 polling stations is itself a logistical nightmare. Even then, the actual task of picking out a candidate on a ballot paper the size of a poster, which in some areas runs to six pages, will be beyond most of voters.

The total cost of organising the election is estimated at around US$500 million, with most of the amount being met by the international community, which sees the election as a watershed moment not just for the DRCongo but also for the entire war-hit Great Lakes region. Bordering nine, mainly small and less-well-endowed countries, the DRCongo, which has been ruled by a successive of corrupt leaders, is seen as the epicentre of this region's instability, with a number of foreign insurgent groups operating out of its vast territory. Using this as a pretext, Rwanda and Uganda, the DRCongo's poor, landlocked neighbours, have invaded the country on at least two occasions in the past eight years, with the second one in August 1998 sparking off the country's five-year civil war. Although both Kigali and Kampala have legitimate security concerns, gaining first-hand access to the DRCongo's vast natural resources has fuelled the conflict beyond its natural cycle, and is still seen as the main reason for its continuation to this day, albeit at a much smaller scale and without the two countries' direct involvement.

In its haste to ensure that the election takes place, however, the international community is running the risk of legitimising a process unlikely to go anywhere near meeting some of the most basic benchmarks and electoral standards with regards to transparency and fairness expected to have a credible election. The build-up to Sunday's election has been characterised by an escalation in political tension, including the intimidation and harassment of opposition candidates, supporters, journalists, and civil society representatives by the security forces and supporters of the leading candidates, especially Kabila.

The build-up has also been marked by the escalation in ethnic tension, particularly regarding the so-called "Congolese identity", with candidates trying to play on the ethnic prejudices of the electorate by portraying their rivals, including Kabila and Ruberwa, as Rwandans and not genuine Congolese nationals.

Some these concerns have already been communicated by some of the numerous election observers currently in the country, as well as some of the parties and presidential candidates. Around 20 candidates recently called on the CEI to delay the ballot.

Outlook and Implications

The incumbent president, Joseph Kabila, is widely expected to triumph in the presidential ballot, perhaps in a second-round run-off victory over Bemba, when the outcome is eventually announced around September. This suggests that, despite talk of the election being the first opportunity the citizens of the DRCongo have been given to choose their own leaders in an open ballot, the entire event is effectively a coronation. The young president, who came to power at the age of 29 back in January 2001 following the assassination of his father Laurent, is the only nationally recognisable candidate in the race, with free access to state-controlled media and other resources. With this built-in advantage, and the advantage of having his own elite presidential guard, the incumbent is always going to emerge as a winner, barring any unforeseen turn of events. While this makes the election an exercise in legitimising Kabila's presidency, it should nevertheless be seen as a positive development and a step in the right direction.

Although Kabila's future looks distinctly positive, the fates of his former enemies turned partners in government—such as Bemba and Ruberwa—and other former rebel leaders is less certain. Although Bemba and his MLC party are tipped to do well in the election, Ruberwa and his RCD-Goma, seen by many Congolese as a Rwandan-backed movement, are unlikely to do as well, and are set to be the biggest losers in the ballot. But, with many of the supporters and combatants of the former rebel movement still armed and refusing to be integrated into the newly restructured national army, it remains to be seen whether the RCD-Goma and other likely losers will accept the outcome of the ballot peacefully or choose to return to the bush.

With such an eventuality remaining a distinct possibility, it is imperative that the international community, including the UN and the European Union—who both have a sizeable armed presence in the country—see the ballots as the start of the second phase of the transitional process, not as an end of the process in itself, and remain engaged long after the election.

 

Raul Dary

24 Hartwell Ave.
Lexington, MA 02421, USA
Tel: 781.301.9314
Cel: 857.222.0556
Fax: 781.301.9416
raul.dary@globalinsight.com

www.globalinsight.com and www.wmrc.com

 

Global Insight (Reino Unido)

 


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ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House