Inteligencia y Seguridad Frente Externo En Profundidad Economia y Finanzas Transparencia
  En Parrilla Medio Ambiente Sociedad High Tech Contacto
Frente Externo  
 
24/04/2008 | Election 2008: Opposition Ends Six Decades of One-Party Rule in Paraguay

Global Insight Staff

Paraguayan voters opted for change yesterday, electing “bishop of the poor” Fernando Lugo as president and ending the 61-year reign of the conservative Colorado Party (PC).

 

Global Insight Perspective

 

Significance

Opposition candidate Fernando Lugo triumphed in Paraguay's presidential election, securing 41% of the votes cast, compared with the 31% garnered by ruling party candidate Blanca Ovelar.

Implications

Lugo's victory is a step towards democratic maturity for Paraguay, ending the 61-year reign of the PC.

Outlook

President-elect Fernando Lugo will face multiple challenges during his 2008-13 term in office, notably the need to fortify institutions, crack down on corruption, reduce poverty, and foster economic growth.

Democratic Boost for Paraguay

The ruling PC was ousted from power yesterday as opposition candidate and former bishop Fernando Lugo (of the Patriotic Alliance for Change) triumphed in Paraguay's presidential election. PC candidate Blanca Ovelar conceded defeat in the face of results that gave Lugo an irreversible 10-percentage-point lead. Lugo won 41% of the votes cast, from a good 65% turnout, which adds further legitimacy to his victory. (Incumbent PC President Nicanor Duarte won with 37.2% of the ballots in the 2003 election.) Fears of PC election fraud proved largely unfounded, according to observers yesterday; while some irregularities were reported, they failed to alter the outcome. President Duarte himself welcomed the result as evidence of a sounder democracy, noting that for the first time there will be a party-to-party transfer of power "without bloodshed, coup d'état, without violence". Behind Ovelar, who was widely considered to be Duarte's “puppet”, retired Army general Lino Oviedo came third with 22% of the votes.

Lugo had built a strong support base from the poverty-reduction programmes he promoted during his time as the bishop of San Pedro. His employment history caused a stir given the constitutional bar on clergy holding public office, although Lugo was expelled from the church by the Vatican in 2006 . Potential legal challenges to his victory given his past role failed to emerge yesterday, however.

The “bishop of the poor” label and the leftist content of his programme for power have led to attacks by President Nicanor Duarte over Lugo's alleged links with leftist South American governments; in particular, Venezuela, Bolivia, and Ecuador. In addition, Lugo was accused of receiving illegal financial support from the governor of the Brazilian state of Parana, Roberto Requiao . The attacks can be seen as a strategy to cause late damage to Lugo's campaign by playing the “red scare” card. Lugo, nonetheless, was keen to distance himself from controversial radical regimes, and instead promoted comparisons with moderate social-democrats in the region. From an electoral tactics perspective, Lugo succeeded in unifying much of the hitherto atomised opposition under the flag of a single party, which gave him a significant advantage on Sunday. The opposition’s division was indeed the primary reason for the PC’s victory in the municipal election of November 2006 .

Outlook and Implication

President-Elect Fernando Lugo will face many challenges in his forthcoming five-year term in office. Although the country has been on the brink of economic recovery, there is a need to embrace additional reforms in order to reduce poverty, end corruption, and ensure an even and strong enforcement of the rule of law. Paraguay is infamous for being a major point of departure for smuggled goods, notably the tri-border point with Brazil and Argentina. In this particular zone there is little or no regard for the law and corruption is endemic. In addition, there are serious security issues in some provinces, which have been exacerbated during the electoral process. On the economic front, Paraguay’s development model is based on trade, which leaves the economy exposed to external shocks. The Paraguayan economy is mainly agriculture oriented and the industrial sector is weak and incapable of satisfying domestic demand. The international prices of commodities such as soy and cotton are key for the trade balance; hence, Paraguay’s vulnerability to market volatility. Institutional reform will also be a key area for Lugo, especially given the PC domination of state offices for past six decades. Lugo will have to deepen reforms promoted by his predecessor during the first half of his 2003-08 administration. Areas of special concern are the lack of independence of the judicial branch and the electoral system, since most of the judges have declared political affiliations.

The new government must also find ways to strengthen Paraguay’s industry and improve trade links with its main economic partners: Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay. This issue is of particular importance in the context of the Southern Common Market (Mercosur) with asymmetries between the large economies and the small ones causing chronic trade deficits for the latter group. Another key issue on the horizon is the possible renegotiation of an electricity-supply contract with Brazil, as Lugo has clearly stated that he will seek a fairer price for Paraguay's energy exports. However, this will be a difficult challenge given the position of Brazil on the matter.

Further details on the policy implications of Lugo's victory will be provided to our subscribers, along with an analysis of the outcome of the Congressional vote.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)

 


Otras Notas Relacionadas... ( Records 1 to 10 of 100 )
fecha titulo
06/10/2014 Paraguay’s Guerrillas Producing Drugs: Anti-Drug Chief
12/09/2013 Paraguay: La constitución limita el poder fiscal
19/08/2013 El tío 'narco' del presidente paraguayo
30/07/2013 Paraguay's New 'Narco-President' Takes Aim At The Underworld
18/06/2013 Paraguay: Privatización no, desmonopolización sí
17/06/2013 El Retorno del Paraguay al Mercosur
26/05/2013 Paraguay and Brazil Launch Joint Anti-Marijuana Operation
24/05/2013 Alianza del Pacífico - Paraguay, bienvenido a bloque regional, a pesar de Itamaraty
24/05/2013 Latin America - Red Command 'Armed Wing' Captured In Paraguay
29/04/2013 Unasur y Paraguay


Otras Notas del Autor
fecha
Título
03/04/2011|
26/03/2011|
20/03/2011|
26/02/2011|
18/02/2011|
18/02/2011|
15/02/2011|
12/02/2011|
10/02/2011|
10/02/2011|
07/02/2011|
03/02/2011|
01/02/2011|
29/01/2011|
26/01/2011|
26/01/2011|
26/01/2011|
25/01/2011|
22/01/2011|
20/01/2011|
20/01/2011|
18/01/2011|
18/01/2011|
17/01/2011|
17/01/2011|
15/01/2011|
14/01/2011|
12/01/2011|
12/01/2011|
10/01/2011|
06/01/2011|
06/01/2011|
01/01/2011|
31/12/2010|
31/12/2010|
25/12/2010|
25/12/2010|
25/12/2010|
18/12/2010|
14/12/2010|
10/12/2010|
26/11/2010|
26/11/2010|
20/11/2010|
17/11/2010|
17/11/2010|
17/11/2010|
15/11/2010|
13/11/2010|
13/11/2010|
12/11/2010|
12/11/2010|
05/11/2010|
04/11/2010|
04/11/2010|
31/10/2010|
09/10/2010|
02/10/2010|
02/10/2010|
17/09/2010|
10/09/2010|
10/09/2010|
10/07/2010|
10/07/2010|
08/04/2010|
05/04/2010|
18/03/2010|
17/03/2010|
16/03/2010|
09/03/2010|
09/03/2010|
05/03/2010|
05/03/2010|
04/03/2010|
03/03/2010|
01/03/2010|
26/02/2010|
26/02/2010|
24/02/2010|
23/02/2010|
22/02/2010|
20/02/2010|
20/02/2010|
17/02/2010|
17/02/2010|
16/02/2010|
15/02/2010|
12/02/2010|
11/02/2010|
10/02/2010|
09/02/2010|
08/02/2010|
05/02/2010|
04/02/2010|
04/02/2010|
04/02/2010|
02/02/2010|
01/02/2010|
31/01/2010|
31/01/2010|
22/01/2010|
21/01/2010|
20/01/2010|
19/01/2010|
19/01/2010|
15/01/2010|
14/01/2010|
13/01/2010|
12/01/2010|
11/01/2010|
08/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
07/01/2010|
05/01/2010|
04/01/2010|
31/12/2009|
31/12/2009|
30/12/2009|
24/12/2009|
23/12/2009|
22/12/2009|
21/12/2009|
18/12/2009|
17/12/2009|
16/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
15/12/2009|
14/12/2009|
14/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
13/12/2009|
11/12/2009|
11/12/2009|
10/12/2009|
10/12/2009|
08/12/2009|
08/12/2009|
08/12/2009|
08/12/2009|
04/12/2009|
04/12/2009|
04/12/2009|
04/12/2009|
03/12/2009|
03/12/2009|
01/12/2009|
01/12/2009|
01/12/2009|
01/12/2009|
27/11/2009|
27/11/2009|
26/11/2009|
26/11/2009|
25/11/2009|
25/11/2009|
24/11/2009|
24/11/2009|
23/11/2009|
23/11/2009|
22/11/2009|
22/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
16/11/2009|
13/11/2009|
13/11/2009|
11/11/2009|
11/11/2009|
11/11/2009|
11/11/2009|
10/11/2009|
10/11/2009|
07/11/2009|
06/11/2009|
04/11/2009|
04/11/2009|
02/11/2009|
31/10/2009|
30/10/2009|
29/10/2009|
28/10/2009|
27/10/2009|
21/10/2009|
21/10/2009|
19/10/2009|
15/10/2009|
14/10/2009|
13/10/2009|
12/10/2009|
09/10/2009|
09/10/2009|
07/10/2009|
06/10/2009|
05/10/2009|
02/10/2009|
01/10/2009|
01/10/2009|
01/10/2009|
30/09/2009|
30/09/2009|
21/09/2009|
19/09/2009|
17/09/2009|
16/09/2009|
15/09/2009|
14/09/2009|
12/09/2009|
12/09/2009|
12/09/2009|
10/09/2009|
09/09/2009|
08/09/2009|
07/09/2009|
05/09/2009|
04/09/2009|
03/09/2009|
02/09/2009|
01/09/2009|
31/08/2009|
29/08/2009|
27/08/2009|
27/08/2009|
26/08/2009|
24/08/2009|
21/08/2009|
20/08/2009|
19/08/2009|
18/08/2009|
17/08/2009|
14/08/2009|
14/08/2009|
14/08/2009|
14/08/2009|
12/08/2009|
12/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
11/08/2009|
10/08/2009|
10/08/2009|
07/08/2009|
07/08/2009|
06/08/2009|
06/08/2009|
05/08/2009|
05/08/2009|
04/08/2009|
04/08/2009|
03/08/2009|
03/08/2009|
01/08/2009|
01/08/2009|
29/07/2009|
29/07/2009|
29/07/2009|
29/07/2009|
27/07/2009|
27/07/2009|
25/07/2009|
25/07/2009|
23/07/2009|
23/07/2009|
23/07/2009|
23/07/2009|
21/07/2009|
21/07/2009|
20/07/2009|
20/07/2009|
17/07/2009|
17/07/2009|
16/07/2009|
16/07/2009|
16/07/2009|
15/07/2009|
15/07/2009|
15/07/2009|
28/03/2009|
15/03/2009|
15/03/2009|
15/03/2009|
15/03/2009|
18/01/2009|
10/01/2009|
06/01/2009|
05/01/2009|
02/01/2009|
24/12/2008|
24/12/2008|
24/12/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
27/11/2008|
03/10/2008|
03/10/2008|
03/10/2008|
03/10/2008|
24/09/2008|
24/09/2008|
20/09/2008|
20/09/2008|
18/09/2008|
18/09/2008|
18/09/2008|
18/09/2008|
10/09/2008|
10/09/2008|
08/09/2008|
08/09/2008|
17/08/2008|
17/08/2008|
11/08/2008|
11/08/2008|
11/08/2008|
11/08/2008|
11/08/2008|
11/08/2008|
13/05/2008|
12/05/2008|
12/05/2008|
10/05/2008|
04/05/2008|
02/05/2008|
27/04/2008|
27/04/2008|
24/04/2008|
24/04/2008|
24/04/2008|
24/04/2008|
24/04/2008|
06/04/2008|
26/03/2008|
20/03/2008|
19/03/2008|
13/03/2008|
10/03/2008|
07/03/2008|
05/03/2008|
18/02/2008|
06/02/2008|
03/02/2008|
01/02/2008|
01/02/2008|
21/12/2007|
21/12/2007|
08/12/2007|
08/12/2007|
02/11/2007|
30/10/2007|
30/10/2007|
27/10/2007|
25/10/2007|
20/10/2007|
04/10/2007|
28/09/2007|
28/09/2007|
31/08/2007|
31/08/2007|
30/08/2007|
30/08/2007|
15/08/2007|
11/08/2007|
11/08/2007|
31/07/2007|
28/07/2007|
28/07/2007|
04/07/2007|
30/06/2007|
30/06/2007|
30/06/2007|
30/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
16/06/2007|
13/06/2007|
13/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
10/06/2007|
16/05/2007|
16/05/2007|
03/05/2007|
03/05/2007|
03/05/2007|
03/05/2007|
03/05/2007|
03/05/2007|
30/04/2007|
30/04/2007|
26/04/2007|
26/04/2007|
25/04/2007|
25/04/2007|
25/04/2007|
25/04/2007|
21/04/2007|
21/04/2007|
19/04/2007|
19/04/2007|
19/04/2007|
19/04/2007|
19/04/2007|
19/04/2007|
19/04/2007|
19/04/2007|
10/04/2007|
10/04/2007|
07/04/2007|
07/04/2007|
04/04/2007|
04/04/2007|
02/04/2007|
02/04/2007|
01/04/2007|
28/03/2007|
28/03/2007|
25/03/2007|
25/03/2007|
20/03/2007|
20/03/2007|
28/02/2007|
23/01/2007|
23/01/2007|
08/01/2007|
08/01/2007|
08/01/2007|
08/01/2007|
06/01/2007|
06/01/2007|
04/01/2007|
04/01/2007|
29/12/2006|
29/12/2006|
28/12/2006|
28/12/2006|
26/12/2006|
26/12/2006|
26/12/2006|
26/12/2006|
26/12/2006|
26/12/2006|
26/12/2006|
26/12/2006|
26/12/2006|
26/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
20/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
16/12/2006|
15/12/2006|
15/12/2006|
14/12/2006|
14/12/2006|
14/12/2006|
14/12/2006|
14/12/2006|
14/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
12/12/2006|
11/12/2006|
11/12/2006|
11/12/2006|
11/12/2006|
11/12/2006|
11/12/2006|
11/12/2006|
11/12/2006|
09/12/2006|
09/12/2006|
02/12/2006|
02/12/2006|
02/12/2006|
02/12/2006|
25/11/2006|
25/11/2006|
23/11/2006|
23/11/2006|
22/11/2006|
22/11/2006|
21/11/2006|
21/11/2006|
21/11/2006|
21/11/2006|
21/11/2006|
21/11/2006|
11/11/2006|
11/11/2006|
02/11/2006|
01/11/2006|
01/11/2006|
28/10/2006|
28/10/2006|
28/10/2006|
28/10/2006|
20/10/2006|
20/10/2006|
20/10/2006|
20/10/2006|
14/10/2006|
14/10/2006|
07/10/2006|
07/10/2006|
07/10/2006|
05/10/2006|
04/10/2006|
04/10/2006|
04/10/2006|
04/10/2006|
23/09/2006|
23/09/2006|
23/09/2006|
23/09/2006|
23/09/2006|
23/09/2006|
06/09/2006|
04/09/2006|
04/09/2006|
02/09/2006|
02/09/2006|
02/09/2006|
01/09/2006|
30/08/2006|
02/08/2006|
02/08/2006|
30/07/2006|
30/07/2006|
27/07/2006|
27/07/2006|
21/07/2006|
20/07/2006|
20/07/2006|
18/07/2006|
16/07/2006|
13/07/2006|
12/07/2006|
12/07/2006|
07/07/2006|
07/07/2006|
06/07/2006|
29/06/2006|
29/06/2006|
29/06/2006|
29/06/2006|
28/06/2006|
26/06/2006|
26/06/2006|
21/06/2006|
21/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
20/06/2006|
04/06/2006|
09/05/2006|
03/05/2006|
03/05/2006|
03/05/2006|
03/05/2006|
18/02/2006|
04/02/2006|
04/02/2006|
29/01/2006|
23/09/2005|

ver + notas
 
Center for the Study of the Presidency
Freedom House