Tensions Running High

Tensions were already running high in Gabon’s capital, Libreville, prior to the announcement of the election result. The voting population of sub-Saharan Africa’s fourth-largest oil producer was waiting with bated breath for a result that had the potential to represent a new page in Gabonese politics in the wake of the death of the world’s longest-serving leader, Omar Bongo Ondimba. The late Bongo had ruled Gabon for over four decades, living lavishly and spending heavily as he co-opted oppositionists and relied heavily on French support to keep the pluralistic country relatively stable. However, for Gabon’s strengthening civil society and opposition figures, the result has not represented the expected break from the past, but rather entrenches the Bongo dynasty through the late president’s eldest son, Ali Ben.

Fifty-year-old Ali Ben was thought to have been his father’s groomed successor, but presidential aspirants did not take this assumption lying down. In the aftermath of Bongo’s death, the political space appeared to open, with the emergence of a number of figures who were keen to throw their hats into the ring for the presidency. Simultaneously, opposition was mounting against Ali Ben, but when in July 2009 the ruling Parti Democratique Gabonais (PDG) nominated Ali Ben as its flag-bearer for the election, the campaign against him gained momentum, with a number of PDG stalwarts defecting in protest. Among the defectors was PDG veteran and presidential frontrunner André Mba Obame, the former interior minister. However, there was some suspicion that the splits in the PDG machine were little more than a ploy to attempt to divide opposition support in order to enable Ali Ben to emerge victorious; typically, the opposition in Gabon has been divided and the rapidity with which the election was organised arguably left little time for presidential candidates to galvanise widespread support. However, Ali Ben, hailing from one of the wealthiest families in the country, was able to traverse Gabon via helicopter to build up support and, with the aid of an efficient campaign team comprised of the communications minister and his sister, Pascaline (formerly director of the cabinet), his campaign was unrivalled.

The high voter turnout on polling day is indicative that locals felt that their vote could change the course of events politically. Voters chose their preferred candidate from a reduced list after a number of candidates pulled out at the eleventh hour, saying that they would prefer to throw their weight behind other candidates so as to increase the chances of a non-Bongo win.While the polls were largely peaceful, irregularities were reported across the country’s nine provinces. Some polling centres failed to open on time; voters complained that there were duplicate voter cards; and the indelible ink into which fingers were dipped once the vote had been cast turned out to be removable with alcohol, according to reports from France 24. However, African Union observers said that the election had met legal standards, although they did acknowledge that the electoral teams did not manage to “master” the voting process.

The Long Wait

The longer the Electoral Commission took to declare the results of the election, the greater the sense of foreboding. Days before the results were announced, all three of the presidential frontrunners—Ali Ben, Pierre Mamboundou and Obame—declared themselves the winner, which only served to rouse expectations even more. Crowds of supporters camped outside the headquarters of the Electoral Commission in Libreville on 2 September and the security forces were put on high alert. Media restrictions were imposed, with journalists being refused accreditation—the Go Africa radio station, owned by Obame, was shut down—and mobile phone operators had their services suspended without explanation. Yesterday, when the results were announced, tension had been stretched to breaking point and cracks in the relative peace were visible as opposition supporters demonstrated and security forces responded with teargas to disperse the crowds. Opposition candidate Mamboundou was reportedly injured in the clashes. In Port-Gentil, south-west of Libreville, Mamboundou supporters broke into the local prison to release inmates and cars were set ablaze, as was the French consulate.

Frustration has been mounting over the political influence that France holds in its former colony. Opponents to Ali Ben consider that France has covertly supported the continuation of the Bongo dynasty through Ali Ben—indeed, following Bongo’s death, Ali Ben went to France to meet with French President Nicholas Sarkozy. However, France has denied any involvement in helping Ali Ben to win the vote, with Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner saying, “There was barely any delay in the preparation and the carrying out of the election. It was all done transparently. France did not intervene. France did not have a candidate," Agence France-Presse (AFP) reports. Visibly, some rioters were incensed by the thought that France had meddled in the political affairs of the country, as crowds reportedly chanted, "Death to the Whites," and the Elysee urged its 10,000 citizens residing in Gabon to stay at home. Meanwhile, shops in the commercial hub of Port-Gentil were looted; this morning the roads were deserted and shops remained closed. France’s Total filling stations and the French-American company Schlumberger were targeted and last night a curfew was imposed in Port-Gentil, which is expected to be enforced until tomorrow morning (Saturday). According to a police official in contact with AFP, 23 people have been arrested in connection with the disturbances.

Ali Ben

Upon being declared the victor, Ali Ben promised to lead Gabon with confidence. Having served as foreign minister and defence minister, Ali Ben’s profile is of someone who has a great deal of experience in Gabonese politics. However, it is the legitimacy of the election result that is widely contested on the ground. Civil society has questioned the plausibility of the results, which indicate that Ali Ben won favourably in five out of the country’s nine provinces, thus putting him far ahead of his political nemeses. The opposition has called the outcome a political coup d’état and the result is likely to be challenged in the courts.

Ali Ben is said to lack the charisma of his father and his inability to speak the various local languages fluently has created a sense of detachment between himself and the Gabonese people. Nevertheless, he sought to bridge that gap by espousing a populist narrative during his election campaign, vowing to represent a rupture from the past, putting an end to corruption and cronyism, and making social development his priority. Even so, the former defence minister has a difficult challenge ahead of him in keeping the country unified in the face of mounting adversity and opposition to his leadership.

Outlook and Implications

Gabon—a country replete with natural wealth from oil, timber, uranium and manganese—has attracted a great deal of investor interest from a number of players, particularly in the extractive industries, including Brazil, China, the United States and former colonial power France. French capital is well-penetrated into the economy and Gabon is one of the leading recipients of French foreign direct investment in Africa. As the anti-French sentiment rises, with popular opinion considering that France had a hand in fixing the outcome of the vote, IHS Global Insight will revise its risk rating for the operational environment from 3.25 to 3.75 and, in view of the imposition of a curfew in Port-Gentil, the risk rating for the security environment has also been downgraded from 2.5 to 3.0.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)