‘Hamastan’ Takes Shape

The power struggle between Hamas and Fatah is rooted in the latter’s inability to accept the reversal in its political fortunes since the electoral gains achieved by the former at the January 2006 parliamentary polls. Since Hamas’ ascent, and despite the formation of Palestinian coalition government, stitched together under Saudi mediation, the international community has been unyielding in its refusal to recognise the Hamas-led authority, denying it much-needed international legitimacy and fuelling the internal rivalries that have led to the latest and most violent showdown between Islamist and secular forces within the Palestinian territories. Despite the international boycott of the Palestinians, the United States has delivered multi-million-dollar assistance packages to arm and train Fatah’s presidential guard and security forces loyal to Fatah strongman Mohammed Dahlan.

In a symbolic attack against Fatah’s bastion of security, Hamas loyalists ransacked Dahlan’s offices; the powerful national security chief is viewed by Hamas supporters as an instrument of regional and international efforts to isolate and discredit the government. Only days ago, Dahlan met senior Egyptian officials to discuss measures aimed at boosting security co-operation between Egypt and Fatah. Dahlan’s efforts to enlist Egyptian support in further beefing up his security empire in Gaza seem to have been overtaken by events on the ground, with Hamas fighters currently occupying his office and remaining confident of an extended stay (see Palestinian Authority: 29 May 2007: Egypt Holds Key Talks with Palestinian Fatah).

Against this backdrop, President Abbas dramatically dissolved the national unity government and declared a state of emergency in reaction to what he described as a “military coup” in Gaza. Since Fatah has been roundly defeated, at least for now, in Gaza—with balaclava-clad Hamas loyalists occupying all of the strategic centres and official buildings in the 25-mile-long Gaza Strip—Abbas’ declaration of a state of emergency has fallen on deaf ears. Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniya slammed Abbas’ dissolution of the government and instead said that his government would press on and that he would impose decisive law and order. Overnight, the green flags of Hamas were seen flying over most parts of Gaza and Hamas supporters were seen celebrating in the streets. Over 113 people have been killed in the fighting in just under a week.

Outlook and Implications

Hamas’ new dominance and control over the security services, which is the main source of political power in the territories, is prompting fears of a dangerous West Bank-Gaza split, where Fatah will control the West Bank and Hamas will assume total power in Gaza, forging an Islamic state on Israel’s doorstep. This would have crucial security implications not only for Israel but also for Jordan and Egypt. The faction’s dominance and control over Gaza—which is likely to be followed by Fatah-led attempts to reclaim key positions—is likely to endure.

Hamas’ move, which will intensify the isolation of the Gaza Strip, will compound the suffering for Gazans who—while growing increasingly impoverished—have born the brunt of the spiralling economic crisis and government paralysis affecting daily life. The European Union (EU) has already suspended the existing meagre aid provisions to the Palestinians, with conditions in Gaza set to become progressively more acute.  In reaction to events over the last few days, U.S. President George W. Bush said that he was "profoundly concerned" and called for a halt to the clashes, while U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called Abbas to voice Washington's "full support". The international community may come to regret snubbing the Hamas-led Palestinian national unity government brokered under Saudi mediation. There was hope that this coalition would be crucial in moderating and altering the behaviour of Hamas, paving the way towards the group’s eventual recognition of the state of Israel. Instead, the Palestinian people has become deeply polarised and fragmented, making the dream of a viable Palestinian state even more of a distant reality. The Fatah movement—which is today grappling to retain its relevance amid the populist Islamist tide that has swept Gaza—was itself isolated by the international community in its early years. The late Palestinian leader and Fatah veteran, Yasser Arafat, at least put the Palestinian cause on the international map and while Ismail Haniya may yet do the same for Hamas, the fallout for the Palestinians, the Israelis and the Arab world may prove significantly more costly.