Global Insight Perspective

Significance

The landmark tour marks the deepening of the ongoing détente between the two neighbours, reflecting increasing economic interdependence, following a period characterised by acrimonious disputes over their shared wartime history.

Implications

Despite producing few concrete results, the visit holds great symbolic importance and is key to laying the foundation for the future relationship of East Asia's two great powers.

Outlook

Although Japan and China have much common interest in continuing their détente, neither of the two neighbours has budged on substantial issues including the Yaskuni Shrine and the East China Sea dispute, and strategic competition is set to continue to dog relations.

Sino-Japanese Symbolic Diplomacy Gains Momentum

Chinese premier Wen Jiabao on Friday (13 April) wrapped up his landmark three-day visit to Japan, which saw the two sides engage in much symbolic diplomacy as part of efforts to reconcile over long-standing disputes regarding the neighbours’ shared wartime history. Wen is the first Chinese premier to visit Japan since 2000, and his tour has been filled with symbolic encounters, which have to some extent overshadowed the substantial and tangible agreements produced at the visit. These include a visit to Kyoto, the capital of ancient Japan, and discussions with Emperor Akihito. Key amongst such symbolic gestures, however, was his historic address to the Japanese Diet, with Wen being the first Chinese political leader to engage in such an activity for 22 years. In his speech, which was broadcast live in both countries, Wen called for Japanese apologies over its World War II aggression to be matched by concrete action, but simultaneously accorded unprecedented recognition to what he termed the “deep soul-searching and apologies” that have been offered by Japanese leaders for the country’s wartime record. He further emphasised the important role played by Japanese aid in propelling China’s economic development, with Tokyo legislators having complained in the past that too little recognition had been given to such gestures.

At the meeting held between Wen and his Japanese counterpart, Shinzo Abe, the political leaders agreed to establish "strategic, mutually beneficial relations" in the areas of the economy, energy, and the environment. Their pledges were subsequently enshrined in a joint press statement, committing them to boost bilateral cooperation, promote high-level economic, political and defence dialogue, and to continue efforts to denuclearise the Korean Peninsula. Meanwhile, the two premiers also acknowledged the need to speed up talks to solve outstanding dispute over the natural gas reserves in the East China Sea, with both sides committing to hold these next month. In the joint statement on energy, the two countries agreed that Japanese technology should aid in the promotion of energy-saving measures in China, including in the field of establishing nuclear power plants. As expected, the two countries also agreed to seek to put in place a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, which is set to expire in 2012, to address the problem of global warming. China aims to improve energy efficiency by 20% by 2012, as stated in its Five-Year Plan, while Japanese technology has much to offer in terms of optimising energy use. Meanwhile, pointing towards the continued momentum for cooperation, Abe established his intention to pay another visit to China by the end of this year, and extended an invitation to the Chinese president Hu Jintao to come for a visit in early 2008.

Addressing Japan’s Troubled Past

In symbolic terms, this is a monumental step ahead for Sino-Japanese relations, with China even refusing to engage in dialogue with Japan this time last year. Bilateral relations were severely strained under the rule of former Japanese prime minister Junichiro Koizumi, who repeatedly visited the Yaskuni War Shrine, seen by China as paying tribute to Japanese militarism (see Japan: 15 August 2006: Japanese PM’s Visit to Controversial War Shrine Causes Diplomatic Tension throughout East Asia). Yasukuni honours Japan’s war dead, including 14 Class-A war criminals. On the foreign policy front, the repeated visits caused a severe deterioration in bilateral relations with China, as well as South Korea, while also becoming intertwined with a number of other issues, such as the revision of Japanese school textbooks and territorial claims to disputed territories. This led the Chinese political leadership to refuse to hold high-level summits with Japan with the Tokyo government in turn accusing the Chinese political leadership of stoking anti-Japanese sentiment leading to major demonstrations against Japanese representations and businesses in the country in 2005. Bilateral relations only began to thaw with the accession to power of Abe in September last year. The Japanese prime minister visited China shortly thereafter, establishing the foundation for improving relations with Japan’s largest trading partner, and thereby heeding the calls of Japan’s business community.

Outlook and Implications

Reflecting increasingly close trade links, both countries are keen on improving bilateral relations, as made manifest by the landmark visit. Although it may not have yielded any major developments in concrete terms, it holds great symbolic importance and is key to laying the foundation for the future relationship of East Asia’s two great powers. Both of the regional great powers seek continued economic growth for which they rely on one another. Meanwhile, they are intent on maintaining stability as they pursue larger roles in a global context. China is seeking to showcase its growing international clout as seen by the leading role taken upon itself in the North Korean missile crisis, and is further keen on making the 2008 Olympics yet another showcase for its development. Meanwhile, Japan continues its efforts to obtain a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, which has so far been vehemently opposed by China. The Abe government is further pushing ahead with its efforts to normalise Japan’s foreign policy, which entails revision of the country’s pacifist constitution. This has been met with fierce protests by China and South Korea, which must be won over by Japan if the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is to successfully proceed with such plans as fears of a resurgent Japan continue to dominate in Asia.

Although Japan and China have much common interest in continuing their détente, neither has budged on several substantial issues, which are as such set to continue to dog relations. Midway through the visit, Wen announced that China would not compromise on its already stated territorial claims to disputed gas reserves in the East China Sea. Meanwhile, Abe has retained a policy of strategic silence regarding his intentions to pay future visits to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, but any potential visit, favoured by Japan’s right-wing, would threaten to undermine whatever progress has been obtained in the bilateral relationship so far. Underlying tensions also pertain to the sphere of growing strategic competition between the two countries regarding the quest for influence in the Asian region and for resources worldwide. Meanwhile, the leaderships of both countries have to engage in a delicate balancing act as they pursue such rapprochement. Nationalism remains a strong force in both China and Japan, and détente will require “the molding of minds” both on the levels of government and the public. Moreover, potential flashpoints over China’s secretive defence budget and plans by Japan to revise its pacifist constitution continue to dog the outlook. Nevertheless, while the landmark visit has not yielded any major developments, it still holds great symbolic importance and may yet provide the foundation for a more constructive dialogue.

www.globalinsight.com

www.wmrc.com