"The majority remains majority"—that was perhaps the most significant message that Saad Hariri has sent with his resignation yesterday. The Saudi-born billionaire who is son and political heir to slain ex-prime minister Rafiq Hariri, stepped down yesterday from his designated position having dedicated over 70 days to forming a new Lebanese government after his parliamentary bloc, March 14, won the legislative polls of 7 June. Hariri’s resignation is not an admittance of defeat, it is an unequivocal signal of March 14 frustration with what it has perceived as unreasonable demands placed by opposition parties which include Shi’a party Hizbollah. Yesterday evening Hariri said he had resigned over "impossible" conditions which sought to undo the 7 June election results. According to the Lebanese Daily Star, President Michel Suleiman (who was put in a difficult position on Monday when Hariri submitted his much-criticised cabinet proposal) attempted to convince Hariri to reconsider his resignation. Hariri said that both his position and the president’s roles had been undermined by the opposition, adding that he and Suleiman had been used as a "mail box which received decrees issued by political parties naming their ministers for the government". The opposition criticised Hariri for effectively imposing a unilaterally drafted cabinet proposal and announced very quickly on Monday that they would object to the proposal Free Patriotic Movement leader Michel Aoun vowed to withdraw his delegates from the cabinet once appointed.According to statements by Lebanese Forces leader Samir Geagea—a key Hariri ally—the opposition had been granted several key portfolios, including labour, health, foreign affairs, and higher education.

It is clear that Hariri resigned in the main over the opposition’s insistence on picking key cabinet posts and Aoun’s demands. Aoun has been the most vocal critic of the prime minister-designate in the aftermath of the June polls and has demanded that his son-in-law, caretaker Telecommunications Minister Gebran Bassil, remain in his post and that the FPM be granted one of the so-called sovereign portfolios (defence, interior, foreign affairs, finance). Aoun appears to have been eyeing the Interior Ministry in particular. Hariri has consistently refused to heed Aoun's demands, not least because of the pressure from Aoun's rival Christian parties within the majority bloc, Phalange leader Amin Gemayel, and Samir Geagea's Lebanese Forces. Hariri has also refused to re-appoint Bassil after he failed to secure re-election in the June polls. According to the Daily Star, Monday’s cabinet-proposal instead granted the Telecommunications Ministry to the Progressive Socialist Party (PSP) which is led by Walid Jumblatt. Interestingly, this would signal that the rift between Jumblatt and Hariri has not been irreparably damaged by Jumblatt’s decision in August to withdraw from March 14 .In fact, Jumblatt not only appeared relatively satisfied with the Monday proposal; he also said yesterday: "The opposition should have been less rough with its demands", adding that he had hoped for Hariri to delay his resignation.

Outlook and Implications

President Suleiman is now expected to call a parliamentary hearing to designate a new prime minister. Fears that Hariri’s resignation may plunge Lebanon into yet another prolonged period of political crisis are of course rife, prompting Qatari prime minister, Sheikh Hamad Ben Jassem bin Jabr al-Thani, to offer to host talks between the opposition March 8 bloc and Hariri’s March 14 coalition. Qatar’s mediation efforts were instrumental in helping to create Lebanon’s last unity government after a prolonged stalemate resulted in a full-blown political crisis in May 2008. However, there is a strong likelihood that Hariri will once again be nominated. He continues to have the support of March 14 parties, President Suleiman, parts of the opposition (including Amal leader and parliamentary speaker Nahib Berri), and of Druze leader Walid Jumblatt. However, it is unclear what his re-appointment would solve. The outlook for renewed cabinet talks will certainly not brighten even if Hariri is re-appointed as it would put negotiations back to square one. The agreed cabinet share formula which gives March 14 15 seats, March 8 10 seats, and President Suleiman five seats, would be scrapped and the discussions would begin anew. Furthermore, there is no reason to believe that if Hariri regains the vote of confidence he will emerge more conciliatory and willing to concede to the opposition’s demands. The parliamentary elections, although granting victory to March 14, did not put an end to the battle between March 14 and the opposition. It is unclear that even by signaling that "the majority remains majority" that Hariri will be in a better position to assert the majority’s power should receive the vote of confidence again. The crux of the problem was aptly explained yesterday by caretaker Gebran Bassil when he said to Agence France-Presse (AFP) not only that Hariri had given up "because he proved incapable of forming a real unity government" but more importantly that "…Nobody can marginalise important political parties". The ever-present risk of political breakdown, which in turn is caused by Lebanon’s ever-factitious politics, has necessitated an across-the-board agreement on a unity government. The concept of course is a double-edged sword in so far as it does not resolve the underlying lack of unity, the lack of trust, and the diametrically opposed stand-points of the two sides which in turn are supported by their respective foreign backers. The concept of a unity government effectively allows both sides to continuously veto political decisions while Lebanon’s chronic structural problems are left to ferment.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)