Global Insight Perspective

Significance

For the first time in 47 years of iron rule, President Fidel Castro has provisionally delegated the totality of his governmental responsibilities to his brother Raul Castro and other top officials, due to his critical state of health.

Implications

Interim president Raul Castro will be tested on his ability to manage the country temporarily, amounting to a sort of test for the man often considered as the heir to his brother. The Communist Party is also expected to assume a pivotal role during Fidel’s complete rest period, also a "dry run" ahead of a post-Castro era.

Outlook

The unprecendented nature of the power handover sparked hopes of his imminent death amongst dissidents, along with the traditional wave of speculation on the nature of a Castroless Cuba. However, we must not discount the idea that Fidel Castro will return to power once his health is restored, and caution is advised not to fall into the wishful thinking trap—common enough when it comes the health of the ageing Castro.

Unprecedented Delegation of All Powers

Communist President Fidel Castro decided yesterday provisionally to hand over power to his brother and Defence Minister Raul Castro, and this for an undetermined period of time. By means of a letter read by his personal secretary, Fidel Castro clarified that work and stress sparked by a busy agenda were to blame for internal intestinal bleeding, prompting tricky surgery and the need for complete rest, away from governmental responsibilities. The statement clearly referred to Castro’s trip to Argentina to attended the Mercosur Summit, and the Commemorations Acts that quickly followed on 26 July, where he delivered hours-long tiring speeches (see Latin America: 20 July 2006: Latin American Leaders Gather in Argentina for 30th Mercosur Summit and Cuba: 27 July 2006: President of Cuba Addresses Energy, Healthcare and Integration Issues). The Communist leader is set to turn 80on 13 August, but celebrations for the event have now been postponed until 2 December this year, day of the fiftieth anniversary of the Revolutionary Armed Forces.

Raul Castro will now occupy the three top posts in the Cuban regime where the brunt of authority and power is concentrated: President of the Council of State, First Secretary of the Cuba Communist Party (PCC) and Commander of the Armed Forces. However temporary the hand-over, it constitutes an unprecedented measure in the 47-year reign of Fidel Castro. One may recall that previous health issues that caused concern in the Revolution's ranks had never prevented Castro from remaining in the driving seat (see Cuba: 22 October 2004: Cuban President's Fall Sparks Inevitable Speculation over Succession and Cuba: 25 June 2001 Castro Health Fears Surface After Stage Collapse). Not only these posts, but also lesser portfolios directly led by and tied to Castro, such as the Energy Revolution, were allocated to other top officials.

Outlook and Implications

The Beginning of the End?

The exceptional nature of the temporary handover of power has led to unsurprising speculation over Fidel Castro’s actual state of health. As anti-Castro Miami Cubans in the United States celebrated the news as a sign of Castro's nearing or imminent demise, the U.S. administration in Washington issued a cautious "We are monitoring the situation", avoiding the traditional trap of wishful thinking and "death-bed partying".

So is it the beginning of the end of the Castro era? Needless to say Castro’s health has proved resistant to date, but old age has to take its toll at some point. An imminent death? Maybe not just yet. The measure is certainly unique in the Communist history of the island, giving a sense of the gravity of Castro’s heath, but seeing in this the materialisation of dissidents' aspirations for a "Castroless Cuba" is, for now, premature. The situation is, of course, inevitable, but in the short to medium term rather than immediately. The endless question of the nature of the post-Castro era has been on the table for a while in both the United States and in Cuba itself, where Castro and the Communist Party have initiated a series of measures and reforms geared to rejuvenate the Revolution and ensure the safe transition of power in the event of Castro’s death. Both Fidel and his brother have hailed the PCC as the worthy heir of the Revolution, pragmatically preferring that a party, rather than a unique individual, should take power.

It is expected that Castro’s death will open up the space for burgeoning democratic practices, but whether Cuba-based dissidents or Miami Cubans will take the lead in the process is widely questioned, as is the extent and the nature of Washington’s involvement, though its keenness is not in doubt. Other pending questions rely on the welcome that Cuba-based dissidents will give to estranged Cubans and Washington’s assistance, as well as popular response to exogenous forces playing in Cuba. Ultimately, support for the Revolution among the Cuban population, channelled via Castro, should not be underestimated.

Raul Dary

24 Hartwell Ave.
Lexington, MA 02421, USA
Tel: 781.301.9314
Cel: 857.222.0556
Fax: 781.301.9416
raul.dary@globalinsight.com

www.globalinsight.com and www.wmrc.com