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20/02/2010 | Military Coup Removes President and Dissolves Government in Niger

Global Insight Staff

The political crisis in Niger has been pushed to critical new heights with the capture of President Mamadou Tandja and the apparent dissolution of all state institutions.

 

IHS Global Insight Perspective

 

Significance: President Tandja and members of his government have been detained by Niger's new military junta. Control of government departments has been delegated to deputies.

Implications: The junta has yet to detail its intentions, but includes members of the 1999 coup plotters that allowed fresh general elections within months of the assassination of former president Ibrahim Mainassara.

Outlook: The international community will wait to see the junta's next step while condemning the mode of power transfer. Meanwhile, reputational, political and security risk have increased for Niger.

Risk Ratings: The political risk rating has been downgraded from 4.00 to 4.25, while the security risk rating has been downgraded from 3.75 to 4.00.

In August 2009, only months ahead of scheduled elections, President Mamadou Tandja gambled that he would be able to remove the constitutional limits on the presidency despite international protest and a lack of support from domestic political elites. Even before the August referendum, Niger’s young political institutions were rocked by the dissolution of parliament in May 2009, six months before schedule, and then again by legislative polls boycotted by the major domestic opposition parties and proscribed against by international bodies such as the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS). Tandja and his “tazarche”—or “continuity” supporters—agreed to talks with government opponents under ECOWAS direction, but have offered very little in the way of concessions. Evidently, the President’s intransigence has resulted in the withdrawal of a critical pillar of support in the Nigerien military.

Reports of gunfire around the presidential palace in the Nigerien capital of Niamey were followed yesterday evening (18 February) with a statement from the Supreme Council for the Restoration of Democracy (CSRD), claiming that the government had been dissolved by the country’s defence and security forces. In a televised announcement, CSRD spokesperson Colonel Abdoulkarim Goukoye told Nigeriens that the constitution had been suspended alongside all of its institutions. For the present, government departments will be run by “secretaries of ministries and local government administrators”. A dusk-to-dawn curfew was announced and all borders have been closed.

The unconstitutional removal of an unconstitutional government represents an increase across all categories of political risk in Niger. Political institutions are in a state of limbo and for the moment there is no process by which organised interests outside the military may be heard. The international community, accounting for around 10% of government revenue, must wait to know the character of Niger’s new rulers before deciding on its next course of action, but they will demand a programme for the return of constitutionalism and democracy. Similarly, although the streets of Niger are reportedly quiet at present, the potential for further unrest is clear.

Democracy Stillborn

Niger gained independence from France in 1960. The country’s first president, Hamani Diori, sustained himself in office through the ballot, winning three separate elections, but his administration, characterised by pernicious corruption, was removed by a coup d'état in 1974. Other than a three-year spell in the mid-1990s, authoritarianism remained the political modus operandi under General Seyni Kountouche (1974-1987), Ali Saibou (1987-1993) and Ibrahim Mainassara (1996-1999) until 2000. Having served in the military government of the 1980s, Mamadou Tandja won the presidency though elections in October 1999 following the assassination of Mainassara in April of that year. Multiparty democracy established under the August 1999 constitution made tentative gains in being able to hold general elections again in 2004 and negotiating popular dissatisfaction at public spending reforms.

In the latter stages of his second term in office, Tandja’s apparent conversion from military garb to civilian politician began to slip and in August 2009 a referendum was held to amend the constitution, removing the presidential term limit and converting Niger to a fully presidential system of government where the prime minister is answerable to the president rather than parliament. The changes were passed with over 92% support and 68% voter turnout (figures disputed by government opponents). Former presidential coalition partners in the Convention Democratique et Sociale (CDS) withdrew their support from the government as a result, and joined the Parti Nigerienne pour la Democratie et Socialisme (PNDS) and civil society groups in the Coordination des Forces pour la Democratie et la Republique (CFDR) to oppose the president. Tandja ignored warnings from ECOWAS and held legislative elections in October 2009, boycotted by the CDS and the PNDS. Consequently, Niger was suspended from ECOWAS while the European Union and the United States withheld aid packages.

Former ECOWAS mediator Abdulsalami Abubakar of Nigeria’s suggested government of national unity, in which Tandja would remain head of state for an interim period, was accepted by the opposition parties, but apparently rejected by the President himself, wherein Le Conseil Suprême Pour la Restauration de la Démocratie (CSRD) stepped into the breach. Its members include Abdoulaye Adamou Harouna, a former member of the 1999 junta that removed Mainassara and established democratic elections within eight months, and Colonel Dijibrilla Hima Hamidou, the commander of Niger’s elite military unit, also party to the 1999 coup. President Mamadou Tandja and members of his government are reportedly being held under arrest by the new junta.

Outlook and Implications

The international community, particularly ECOWAS, now has the unenviable task of dealing with the unconstitutional removal of an unconstitutional head of state. Presumably, ECOWAS will continue to engage with the relevant political actors, including the coup-makers, while pushing for new legislative and presidential elections at the nearest juncture, possibly within 12 months. ECOWAS suspension will remain in place until a transitional administration is established that includes members of the major opposition parties, alongside a firm electoral timetable. In view of the recent events, IHS Global insight has downgraded Niger’s political risk rating, but the CSRD pedigree could mean a return to constitutionalism within the short to medium term. The security risk has been downgraded in light of the violence that removed Tandja from office, although it appears limited to the capital for now.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)

 


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