Global Insight Perspective

Significance

Israeli troops and armoured carriers have crossed into southern Gaza this morning, in a move that threatens to spark a prolonged political and military crisis with a Palestinian Authority (PA) already on the brink of collapse.

Implications

In their first large-scale military operation since pulling out of the Gaza Strip late last year, Israeli forces have claimed a single objective: to secure the release of Gilad Shalit, a soldier kidnapped in an audacious raid by Palestinian armed groups earlier this week. Given that a massive Israeli assault is expected to cause significant infrastructural damage, not to mention civilian casualties, Palestinian sentiment is likely to harden against the Israeli onslaught and strengthen the position of armed factions.

Outlook

The military response bodes unwell for regional peace; that the go-ahead for the troop movement into Gaza was given on the same day that Hamas implicitly recognised Israel - a historic policy shift - suggests that relations between the two adversaries are set for further deterioration.

Expecting the Inevitable

Israeli ground forces moved into the Gaza Strip early this morning, in a raid that the military has claimed is solely for the purpose of rescuing a kidnapped soldier. Much of Gaza was plunged into darkness after Israeli air strikes on a power station as well as an attack on three bridges in the territory, which the military claimed was to "impair the ability of terrorists to transfer the kidnapped soldier". However, there have been no reports of direct contact with Palestinian fighters, who have been preparing for such an onslaught over the past few days. Military sources have confirmed that troops have reached Gaza's disused international airport, which is less than a mile from the Israeli border. As the push into Gaza continues, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has vowed to use "extreme measures" to secure the release of Shalit. Speaking on public radio, the premier nevertheless claimed that Israel had no intention of reoccupying the recently evacuated territory.

Around 5,000 troops are believed to have been deployed at the Gaza border. Olmert has ruled out the possibility of negotiations with the factions holding Shalit, whose demands for the release of all Palestinian female and child prisoners in Israeli jails have been rejected. Given the volatility of the current situation, reports this morning suggest that Palestinian families living close to the border are beginning to move west in order to avoid the impending assault.

Hamas spokesman Ghazi Hamad was quoted by the Palestinian WAFA news agency as accusing Israel of wanting to "disseminate chaos and provoke a new bloody conflict". President Mahmoud Abbas, who is under increasing domestic and international pressure to resolve the worsening stand-off, slammed the invasion as "collective punishment" against the civilian Palestinian population. Ahead of the military offensive, international mediators had been working tirelessly to secure the kidnapped soldier's release. Diplomats from Egypt, France and the Vatican are believed to have urged the Palestinian factions to hand over Shalit. However, according to Israeli press reports, the mediators gave up, claiming that talks were going nowhere. Global powers including the United States have urged military restraint; the pleas have fallen by the wayside amid Israeli concerns over the safety of the abducted soldier.

Offensive Overshadows Hamas Policy Shift

Although the world's attention is now squarely on the military onslaught and its potential ramifications, an agreement between Hamas and a number of other Palestinian factions earlier yesterday, to implicitly recognise Israel, offered a key insight into the changing political realities. The Hamas-led PA is facing economic meltdown, as a result of the movement's long-standing refusal to accept the legitimacy of the state of Israel. International pressure on Hamas to reverse its long-standing position on armed resistance to the Jewish state appeared to have made little impact on the movement's leadership, while a predominantly Western-backed boycott of the PA was a serious threat to Palestinian life. Weeks of intra-Palestinian negotiations, however, yesterday succeeded in mollifying the Hamas position. The movement has agreed to sign up to the so-called "prisoner's initiative" which, in addition to a de facto recognition of Israel, calls for the establishment of a Palestinian state on land conquered by Israel in 1967, as well as an end to armed attacks inside Israel. The initiative also calls for the formation of a Palestinian national unity government, which Hamas has expressed a desire to accept. According to Hamad, "it is the beginning of a new era in common and united work on all political questions, the resistance and the internal situation".

Abbas had threatened to call a national referendum later next month, had Hamas failed to reconcile its political position with that of the presidency and the once-powerful Fatah faction. In a sign of how far the Israeli and Palestinian diplomatic relationship has deteriorated since the election of Hamas, Israeli officials dismissed the Hamas about-turn as an internal Palestinian matter, and vowed instead to concentrate on bringing Shalit home.

Outlook and Implications

The Gaza security crisis is the first major test for the newly elected government of Prime Minister Olmert, as well as a dangerous escalation in tensions with the Hamas administration. The military confrontation was perhaps inevitable, given the depths to which the relationship had deteriorated. What remains difficult to gauge at present is whether the conflict will remain a purely Israeli-Palestinian one, or instead spread across the region, with wider and graver ramifications. Opposition movements in Egypt, for instance, warned that an Israeli assault against Gaza would be a threat to national security that the Egyptian government should not tolerate. Although there is no suggestion that the Egyptian administration will intervene to end the Israeli operation, popular sentiment across the region is expected to be inflamed once more in support of the Palestinian cause.

Israeli military officials suggest that the current operation will be limited and "surgical". Depending on its success, it may prove a warning shot to Hamas and Abbas to rein in the more belligerent factions, which Israel accuses of launching attacks across the border. The kidnapping of Shalit has simply proven the final straw for the Israeli forces to demonstrate their military prowess, in the face of the ongoing attacks. However, should the onslaught not go according to plan, and last longer than anticipated, civilian casualties and the ability of Palestinian armed groups to inflict losses on Israel are set to endanger any hope of the long-sought-after peace. The Hamas-Israel rivalry is now on course for the ultimate showdown between the two sides.

Raul Dary

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