Appointments and Dismissals

Having to some degree stayed above the fray for the period immediately following his controversial re-election, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has attracted the wrath of conservatives, many of them allies and supporters. Ahmadinejad has come under scathing criticism over his appointment of Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie, a close friend and a relative, as first vice president on 16 July. Mashaie, whose daughter is married to the president’s son, was already an unpopular figure among Iranian hardliners after he saying last year saying that Iran was a friend of the Israeli people. Despite a wave of criticism from ultra-conservatives last week, including the managing director of the hardline daily, Khayan, Hossein Shariatmadari; conservative cleric Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami; a series of hardline publications and newspapers; and conservative lawmakers, Ahmadinejad stood firm on the appointment, saying last week (22 July) "I like Rahim Mashaie for 1,000 reasons" adding that knowing Mashaie was a one of the biggest honours of his life and a favour from God.

Ahmadinejad’s position effectively became untenable after a letter from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei dated 18 July in which the near-omnipotent leader effectively ordered Mashaie’s removal was made public. Ahmadinejad’s failure to immediately obey Khamenei’s orders prompted 200 lawmakers in the 290-seat, conservative-dominated parliament on Sunday (26 July) to demand that the president heed to the Supreme Leader’s will. When Ahmadinejad finally bowed to the pressure and dismissed Mashaie on Sunday, the same day that lawmakers issued their first warning, he also sacked Intelligence Minister Gholam Hossein Mohseni Ejeie, reportedly after falling out over Mashaie’s appointment. In so doing, Ahmadinejad was probably attempting to save face to show that while he was aligning with conservative demands he was still an autonomous player. His standing was dealt another blow when Culture and Islamic Guidance Minister Mohammad-Hossein Saffar-Harandi resigned on the same day, having also reportedly disagreed with the president over Mashaie. Saffar-Harandi’s resignation followed the resignation two weeks ago of Gholam Reza Aghazadeh from his post as the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation and from his position as Vice President for Atomic Affairs. Aghazadeh, a former oil minister, has in the past served in political posts with the opposition leader and presidential candidate Mir-Hossein Mouasvi and was appointed to the head of the atomic energy organisation under former reformist president Mohammad Khatami.

Mashaie’s dismissal did not have the desired effect in so far as the pressure on Ahmadinejad has not eased over the past few days. Arguably criticism has instead intensified, partly because Mashaie was promptly appointed as the president’s chief of staff. Furthermore, the intelligence Minister’s sacking has sparked a whole new wave of criticism. On Monday, lawmaker Ali Motahari warned the president for acting out of personal interest saying not only ''it looks as if he is intentionally bringing tension to the country'' but also that Ejeie’s dismal was an ugly act as it had become a ''personal matter'' with ''nothing to do with the country’s interests''. The conservative Islamic Society of Engineers also chimed in with the criticism yesterday saying: ''The people’s continued support for you depends on your unconditional obedience of the supreme leader and departing from this path will have consequences''. Yet another blow was dealt yesterday as 210 lawmakers signed a letter in the sacked intelligence minister’s defence, saying that he had passed an important test by showing his allegiance to the Supreme Leader, an unveiled stab at Ahmadinejad for his tardy dismissal of Mashaie.

Outlook and Implications

There is little doubt that Ahmadinejad’s position is not only greatly weakened, but also under significant scrutiny from the less-than-forgiving conservative-dominated parliament. Meanwhile Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been given a golden opportunity in Ahmadienjad’s defiance to reassert his authority and once again appear to be a ''neutral'' powerbroker in Iranian politics. His unequivocal support for Ahmadinejad in the aftermath of the widely disputed presidential polls on 12 June had many wonder whether Ahmadinejad was Khamenei’s man or whether it was indeed Khamenei who had been sidelined by the cunning president. Khamenei’s support for Ahmadinejad has certainly provided him with the biggest crisis to his authority since he took his mantle of the Supreme Leadership from Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the father of the Islamic Revolution, 1979. His own power and position has been dealt a significant blow, as has the legitimacy of his omnipotent position. Slogans calling ''death to Khamenei'' and ''death to dictator'' will not have been lost on the Supreme Leader whose embarrassment only grew as key figures such as all-powerful former president and Ayatollah Ali Hashemi Rafsanjani publicly joined the so-called opposition by holding a government-critical Friday Prayer sermon, effectively in defence of protesters.The conservative-dominated parliament is also moving to realign itself in a way as Iran begins to come of the other side of an unprecedented political crisis. Aside from the vocal criticism against Ahmadinejad, parliament on Sunday convened the first meeting of a newly established committee which is to investigate the legal cases of several hundred detainees who have been held since the outbreak of mass protests after the presidential election as reports continue to trickle in of individual deaths and severe mistreatment of prisoners. Agence France-Presse (AFP) said on Monday that official reports claimed that up to 2,000 people had been arrested in the post-election turbulence and that as many as 30 died violently, although unofficial figures estimate much-higher figures. In another other sign that the senior leadership is taking a conciliatory approach to prevent sentiment from flaring up again, Khamenei ordered the closure of a detention centre because it failed to live up to required standards, reported Fars News Agency (FNA) yesterday. This was followed by the release yesterday of 140 detainees and a statement by Ahmadinejad saying that he hoped that all detainees would soon be freed. Effectively the aim in releasing detainees is partly to appease the opposition, which was denied approval to hold a mourning ceremony for dead protesters yesterday, and to normalise the situation on the ground. Ultimately however, efforts to return to a semblance of normality will not hide the ongoing political crisis and the growing split from within the conservative camp, compounded of course by Rafsanjani’s emergence as a government critic and the continued momentum of the opposition movement led by Mousavi, Khatami, and Mehdi Karroubi: a reformist presidential candidate.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)