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04/09/2009 | Iranian Cabinet Approval Boosts President, International Sanctions Threat Defied

Global Insight Staff

Emboldened by the approval of 18 out of 21 of his cabinet nominees, Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad appears to have again emerged defiant in the face of international pressure over the country’s nuclear programme.

 

IHS Global Insight Perspective

 

Significance: Shortly after the majority of his cabinet list was approved Ahmadinejad stated defiantly that Iran would not buckle in the face of international pressure, indeed welcoming international sanctions; a sign that an upcoming "deadline" on nuclear talks could lead to another dead-end.

Implications: The thus-far approved cabinet list itself does not bode well for Iran’s relations with the West. The overwhelming parliamentary support for the controversial new defence minister in particular has already resulted in vocal concern from international quarters.

Outlook: Although Iran says it has completed a package proposal for nuclear talks, the outlook for a breakthrough in international efforts to usher negotiations appears grim.

Welcoming Sanctions

"No one can impose sanctions in Iran anymore. We welcome sanctions." Those were the words of Iran’s ever-defiant president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, shortly after a majority of his cabinet nominees were approved by the conservative-dominated parliament. His appearance showed no indication of defeat or resignation despite the rejection of three of his proposed ministers and the slim approval of several other nominees. Indeed, there is little doubt that Ahmadinejad has taken the approval of 18 of his 21 nominees as a vote of confidence of his presidency, nearly three months after his allegedly fraudulent re-election plunged the country into the worst political unrest since the inception of the Islamic Republic in 1979. Nevertheless, as IHS Global Insight stressed in the analysis of Iran’s new cabinet yesterday, Ahmadinejad’s brazenness is not necessarily based on stable ground and he will remain under significant scrutiny over the next four years.

His saving grace continues to be the support of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei whose apparent behind-the-scenes endorsement of Ahmadinejad’s cabinet line-up might have been what saved Ahmadinejad from a crippling embarrassment. An Ahmadinejad-critical lawmaker said today according to Agence France-Presse (AFP) that as many as nine nominees would have been rejected had it not been for Ayatollah Khameni’s "recommendations".

Although his public defiance of domestic public opinion and international pressure has never exactly faltered even at the height of the mass protests, Ahmadinejad’s remarks yesterday are particularly ominous, coming only weeks before a "deadline" set by the so-called P5+1 states for direct nuclear talks. Consisting of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—the United States, United Kingdom, France, China, and Russia—plus Germany, the divided P5+1 has been at the forefront of international efforts to press Iran to comply with international demands regarding its nuclear programme. Earlier this year, the six states set a September deadline calling on Iran to respond to a proposed offer for reviving nuclear talks. Iran is now expected to formally respond by 21 September when the UN General Assembly will meet in New York, a meeting which President Ahmadinejad is due to attend. The General Assembly meeting will be the first major international forum which the president will attend since his re-election.

Meanwhile, the composition of the new Iranian government does not exactly generate international trust. While a number of the new ministers have a security background particularly, within the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps, and many are very close to the president and the supreme leader; it is the overwhelmingly approved defence minister who is the greatest cause for concern. Ahmad Vahidi has an Interpol arrest warrant on his head over accusations of involvement in the 1994 bombing of a Jewish community centre in Buenos Aires, Argentina. His appointment was lamented by U.S. State Department yesterday; spokesman P.J. Crowley was quoted by AFP as saying that Iran had taken a step back from engaging the world.

Offers and Counter-Offers

Earlier this week Iran’s top nuclear negotiator, Saeed Jalili, said the country would be presenting an updated package for nuclear talks in the coming week according to AFP. His comments in turn followed a meeting by the Political Directors of the UN of the P5+1 states in Frankfurt, Germany on Wednesday this week (2 September), which concluded in a renewed call for Iran to respond to the offer for direct nuclear talks. It is unclear what the exact contents of this offer actually entail, and to what extent it differs from previous offers presented by the P5+1. In June last year, EU foreign-policy chief Javier Solana presented a package of incentives to Iran on behalf of the P5+1, essentially offering technological and financial assistance for Iran’s peaceful use of nuclear energy, the possibility of improved diplomatic ties, and normalisation of trade and economic relations among other things. In exchange Iran was asked to suspend the enrichment of uranium and give the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) freer manoeuvrability for inspecting Iranian nuclear sites. That proposal in turn was based on a similar offer presented in 2006. Previous efforts for negotiations have were effectively crumbled in the face of Iranian refusal to consider offers that include the suspension of uranium enrichment, a right it has as a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Last year, Iran also offered its own package proposal, which effectively skirted the issues at hand and instead outlined Iran’s vision for a new international world order. In all likelihood the new "updated" proposal—which is yet to be presented—will deliver as little as the previous offer did.

The uncertainty over what the 21 September deadline will entail is compounded by the latest IAEA report on Iran released last week. The report showed that Iran has reduced the number of active centrifuges used for the enrichment of uranium, while it on the other hand had radically increased the number of installed centrifuges. The report has been criticised by the United States and by France; both countries have both underplayed its findings, French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner has been particularly scathing in his remarks, stating "not a single question" had been answered by the report. IAEA chief, Mohamed El-Baradei, whose relations with the West have been complicated, following the report’s release dismissed the perception that Iran would have a nuclear weapon any time soon, adding that that the Iranian threat was "hyped".

Outlook and Implication

El-Baradei’s remarks—while controversial—aptly highlight the greatest challenge for the P5+1 states in dealing with Iran; the lack of foolproof intelligence to show that Iran is pursuing nuclear weaponisation capabilities. With Russia and China remaining opposed to a fourth round of UN sanctions on Iran so far, it is difficult to tell which way the nuclear saga will turn next. Much will depend on the degree to which the P5+1 are willing to compromise and whether uranium enrichment will be off the table in future discussions. During the week, a number of Iranian officials clearly stated that Iran will not succumb to pressure, including foreign ministry spokesman Hassan Ghashghavi and IAEA envoy Ali Asghar Sotanieh, who said that Iran had paid a high price for the technological strides it had made in developing nuclear capabilities and that it would not "renounce this right". Iran has consistently weighted the political and economic costs of international sanctions and international and consistently chosen defiance instead. At this point, the country’s nuclear programme is so far advanced, the political costs—particularly for the Supreme Leader—so high, that it is difficult to envisage Iran responding positively to any offer which limits its right to enrich uranium and proceed with its nuclear programme. In that respect, Ahmadinejad’s defiance is not merely one aimed at an international audience, it is a highly contentious domestic issue. Backing down on the nuclear issue now would be an admission of defeat that Ahmadinejad’s government is in no position to muster. Unfortunately, barring a complete policy turnaround by Iran, the upcoming deadline could not come at a worse time. Ahmadinejad and Supreme Leader Khamenei are slowly coming out the other end of a political crisis which their authority severely challenged; they are both unlikely to make any moves which might challenge the semblance of normality and strength gained by parliament’s approval of the majority Ahmadinejad’s cabinet nominees.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)

 


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