Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s endorsement of embattled president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad today was unequivocal, once again attempting to discredit the demands of millions of Iranians whose protests against the incumbent’s 12 June re-election threw the Islamic Republic into the most sustained period of political unrest since its 1979 inception. ''Iranian people have voted in favour of a fight against arrogance, to confront destitution and spread justice'', Agence France-Presse (AFP) quoted Khamanei as saying, not a far cry from his claim that election was guided by a ''divine'' hand in the immediate aftermath of the poll. Khamenei’s words of support were spoken at an official ceremony today which formally allows the president to form his second-term government; opposition leaders, Mir-Hossein Mousavi, Mehdi Karroubi, Mohammad Khatami, plus powerful cleric Ayatollah Hashemi Ali Rafsanjani, were—as expected—absent. The Supreme Leader’s endorsement comes on the back of a turbulent couple of weeks for the president, whose appointment of Esfandiar Rahim Mashaie (a close friend and relative) to the post of first vice president caused widespread anger and criticism among conservatives and his own allies. Criticism deepened over Ahmadinejad’s effective refusal to promptly obey public orders from the Supreme Leader for Mashaie’s dismissal, and his sacking of Intelligence Minister Gholam Hossein Moheseni Ejeie—also reportedly over Mashaie’s appointment . In an effort to smooth over the apparent rift with conservatives and potentially the Supreme Leader, Ahmadinejad last Friday likened his relationship with the Supreme Leader to that between a father and a son, calling naïve those who ''tried to portray that the relation between the government and the leader of the revolution had been tarnished''.

"Confessions"

Khamenei’s endorsement comes after a weekend of mass trials of over 100 people detained amid the post-election protests. On Saturday 100 protesters, including top reformist leaders, went on trial before revolutionary courts, on Sunday a further 10 were put on trial, reported state-run Press TV. The veracity of several highly publicised confessions which have been broadcasted by Iranian state media ought to be questioned given the prevalence of forced confessions in high-profile trials in Iran. Nevertheless, the confession of top reformist Mohammad Ali Abtahi has dealt a blow to the opposition leadership headed by presidential candidates Mousavi and Karroubi and former presidents Khatami and Rafsanjani. Abtahi, who served as vice president under Mohammad Khatami was quoted on Saturday as saying that the election was not fraudulent and that such allegations were brought up "to create riots so Iran becomes like Afghanistan and Iraq and suffers damage and hardship".

Abtahi also testified that opposition leaders Mousavi, Rafsanjani, and Khamenei had taken an "oath" to support each other and had effectively betrayed the Supreme Leader in so doing. Abtahi also claimed that Rafsanjani was acting out a personal vendetta, having lost the 2005 presidential elections to the incumbent. Rafsanjani, who has emerged as the strongest challenger to the Supreme Leader’s power and authority, immediately refuted the allegations. A statement by the powerful Expediency Council, headed by the cleric and former president said: "Ayatollah Rafsanjani did not support any candidate in this election and did not have the slightest role in post-election incidents". The Expediency Council’s statement is of great significance; the arbitration body’s political clout discredits what appears to be a government attempt to suggest that the powerful Rafsanjani is moving to effectively plot behind the Supreme Leader’s back. Confessions from Mohammad Atrianfar, a former deputy interior minister, were also broadcast by state media on Sunday, prompting Khatami and Mousavi to come out with separate statements refuting the legality of the trials in yet another demonstration of the depth of Iran’s political divisions. Khatami called the trials a "show" while Mousavi said on his website: "Witnessing such trumped-up trials, the only judgement that the conscience of humanity can make is the moral collapse and discredit of its directors" according to the BBC.

Outlook and Implications

There is little doubt that the Iranian government is taking charge of constructing a favourable narrative for the past eight weeks of unprecedented political turbulence. A statement by Tehran prosecutor, Saeed Mortazavi, warning that anyone seen to question the legitimacy of the ongoing trials would also stand the risk of prosecution, reported to The New York Times, illustrates the political foundations which the government is attempting to re-draw. However, the strength of the mass political protests and statements from the opposition illustrates that the past eight weeks of protests have effectively eliminated formerly existing acceptable political frameworks in Iran. It will be extremely difficult for the top leadership to reassemble a guise of consensual politics and unequivocal support for the regime, not only of Ahmadinejad but more critically the Supreme Leader—who has lost whatever position he once held as a neutral arbiter. No doubt Khamenei will attempt to reposition himself, as seen by his public rebuke of Ahmadinejad over the Mashaie affair, but such moves will unlikely appease the growing opposition. Furthermore, Abtahi and Atrianfar’s broadcasted confessions have already been widely challenged, not only by opposition leaders but also by their families; allegations of torture and the involvement of force in extracting confessions have already surfaced.

It remains to be seen whether the government will take to using even heavier tactics to discredit and effectively smother the opposition as it still has to be sensitive to the eruption of further protest. To that end, the outcome of the ongoing trials could see several death penalties, plus sweeping acquittals. The former would naturally serve as a chilling warning; the latter could serve as a means of resuscitating the regime’s authority. At this point it seems that the regime is still trying to make a balanced way forward. In an ominous sign that opposition leaders may come under increasing pressure, lawmaker Hamid Resaee said according to state news agency IRNA that there was no longer a reason to "tolerate or compromise" with the "leaders of the unrest" who ought to be dealt with. Although it is unlikely that the government would move to arrest opposition leaders who so far have made statements via their own personal websites and publications relatively freely for fear of increasing unrest, reports suggests that they have been put on different degrees of house arrest at various times over the past weeks; they might certainly come under heavier pressure. Meanwhile, tensions in Tehran remain high as seen by the eruption of violence once again last week when protesters gathered to mourn dozens who have died since the 12 June election.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)