Global Insight Perspective

Significance

The ruling Popular Ivorian Front (FPI) party in Côte d'Ivoire has called for the withdrawal of the 4,000-strong French military contingent and the dissolution of the International Working Group.

Implications

The radicalisation of political positions by the belligerents involved in the Ivorian crisis has considerably increased military tensions on the ground.

Outlook

If a new framework for peace is not found within the next month, an intensification of the conflict, and a potential civil war, is foreseeable in Côte d'Ivoire.

The announcement by Pascal Affi N'Guessan, FPI president, that the ruling party in Côte d'Ivoire was calling for the withdrawal of the 4,000-strong French military contingent and the dissolution of the International Working Group (GTI) characterises the dangerous radicalisation of the Ivorian crisis. While it has been clear for some time now that the issues surrounding the voter-registration drives and militia-disarmament programmes are deeply divisive between the loyalist and rebel camps, few of the main protagonists had openly questioned the involvement of the international community in the management of this crisis. The divergences are so wide now and progress under the aegis of the Linas-Marcoussis Agreement has been so minimal that peace negotiations have reached a standstill. President Laurent Gbagbo boycotted the last UN summit on the crisis and has pursued an inflammatory rhetoric against French involvement in the crisis. Discontent in loyalist ranks is such that the speaker of parliament, Mamadou Koulibaly, has gone so far as to stigmatise the current toxic waste scandal in Abidjan as the work of foreign enemies trying to destabilise the country—a thinly veiled attack on France that seems more focused on mobilising the Young Patriot militias loyal to Gbagbo than on providing the authorities with a reliable account of the incident that affected 60,000 residents of Abidjan.

Mapping the Political Positions

The ruling party's strategy is now clear: rid the country of the only viable military threat—the French—and form regional alliances with sympathetic leaders—South African president Thabo Mbeki—to de-legitimise the rebellion and consolidate power in the centre. If the French troops leave, it is likely that the remaining 7,000 UN personnel will depart, lacking the military strength to control belligerents on both sides of the confidence zone separating northern rebels from government forces in the south. Gbagbo has allegedly been involved in secret talks with several army officials and in preparing loyalist militias on the ground for a possible military confrontation.

The rebels, for their part, are seeking to leverage the international community against Gbagbo. The New Forces (FN) leader, Guillaume Soro, has called for Gbagbo to be sidelined: "There is no question of maintaining Laurent Gbagbo, who has shown his incapacity over the last four years to lead the peace process," Soro told Radio France Internationale (RFI). "We need a transitional head of state...who isn't from any political party and doesn't intend to run for president." The rebel group has appealed to the African Union to find a new mediator for the conflict and rid Côte d'Ivoire of an allegedly partial Mbeki.

As for the political opposition, the head of the Rally of Republicans (RDR), Alassane Ouattara, has sided with the GTI's recent proposals and called for the reinforcement of Prime Minister Charles Konan Banny's executive powers until a new election is held. Ouattara told RFI: "We think the prime minister should have full executive powers, that he should now be supported in this task...but that no candidate can interfere with the electoral process." For its part, the opposition Democratic Party of Ivory Coast (PDCI) sought to remind Gbagbo that the French military presence in 2002 had ensured that Côte d'Ivoire did not fall into the civil-war paradigm that plagues many other African countries. The PDCI has asked for the international community to reinforce its presence in the country.

The international community has been thrown into disarray by the recent turn of events. France has allegedly been discussing the removal of its troops from Côte d'Ivoire despite public statements claiming no such intention. Russia and China recently struck down a UN resolution which sought to impose targeted sanctions against politicians close to Gbagbo who are thought to be significant barriers to the peace process. Regional African leaders have been largely unable to reach a consensus or jump-start a new peace framework. Gabonese president Omar Bongo's power-sharing proposal was struck down by almost all parties and the recent journey to Côte d'Ivoire by Dennis Sassou Nguesso, the African Union president, resulted in a continued stalemate. South African president Thabo Mbeki is in Abidjan today for more talks with Gbagbo, but these are unlikely to breed any productive peace initiative given the rebel disavowal of his legitimacy as an impartial negotiator.

Outlook and Implications

Gbagbo has formally announced that he is ready to discuss solutions, but is no longer interested in peace negotiations. The Ivorian leader has unilaterally decided to remain in office after his UN-backed mandate expires on 31 October, while he works out his own peace plan. In the meantime, the Côte d'Ivoire Armed Forces (FANCI) have resumed military training, new weapons have been shipped to the northern frontlines, and up to 5,000 Liberian troops have mobilised in the south-western part of the country. Colonel Charles de Kersabie, spokesperson for the French Licorne forces present on the ground, has announced that the UN operation was "ready to face any outbreak of hostilities".

Given renewed tensions on the ground and the complete failure of the international community to carry out the peace framework set out by the Linas-Marcoussis accords and supervised by the GTI, the following can be expected:

On the military front, it is likely that the FPI will send its Young Patriots against the UN forces. This should serve to provoke the French into battle. The deaths that could ensue could be instrumentalised by the loyalists to discredit further the so-called neo-colonial presence of French and UN troops on Ivorian soil. The French military, already eager to reduce the number of international deployments it commands, might use this as an opportunity to disengage from a costly but ineffective Ivorian peacekeeping mission, although the United States and Britain are unlikely to agree to such a decision in light of recent reconstruction efforts in neighbouring Liberia and Sierra Leone. The likeliest replacements would be African Union troops, which, faced with serious budgetary and human constraints, will put a de facto end to the viability of an international interposition force in Côte d'Ivoire. This could lead to a disastrous spiral of violence, unless rebel and government forces decide to preserve a status quo that seems to be financially beneficial to both sides.

On the political front, the next few months will see all the belligerents in the Ivorian conflict lobbying for international support. Gbagbo and the FPI will probably work with a conciliating Mbeki to design a new peace process, in full knowledge of the FN's disapproval of his mediation. This should serve to discredit the rebels as divisive war-mongers. Further support within the UN Security Council will be sought from Russia and China, both of which have made significant investments in Côte d'Ivoire this year and will be looking to expand their economic and diplomatic presence there.

On the security front, the next few months will probably be plagued with outbreaks of violence throughout government-held territories, where loyalist militias will be operating. High-profile foreign assets are unlikely to be targeted, although French interests are likely to be the primary candidates for destruction. These attacks should remain limited to smaller assets as a warning to French forces.

The outcome of the current situation is likely to be violent. The symbolic date of 31 October, when Gbagbo's mandate expires, should seal the fate of this country. Unless a new framework for peace is found within the next month, an intensification of the conflict, and a potential civil war, is foreseeable in Côte d'Ivoire.

Contact

Raul Dary

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Lexington, MA 02421, USA
Tel: 781.301.9314
Cel: 857.222.0556
Fax: 781.301.9416
raul.dary@globalinsight.com

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