Global Insight Perspective

Significance

Oaxaca is a popular tourist destination and the state capital is a fashionable starting point for foreign visits to the region’s archaeological sites and unspoilt beaches. Oaxaca had succeeded in attracting tourism as a safe alternative to Chiapas State where the Zapatista (EZLN) rebel movement has deterred travel to the region.

Implications

Political undertones taint the Oaxaca teacher dissent. Demands for improvements to teaching pay and conditions swiftly extended to a broader social movement to force out the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) governor. The decision of Governor Ulises Ruiz to send in police to break up demonstrations in June proved pivotal.

Outlook

President Vicente Fox has vowed to bring the Oaxaca crisis to a close before he leaves office on 1 December. Protesters appear resolute, however, and the union leaders will struggle to gain rank and file support for a government deal. Political tensions in the southern state share some similarities with those tightening in the Mexico City, raising fears that the stand-off in the Federal District could also descend into violence led by those disputing Felipe Calderón’s election as Mexico’s next president.

Classroom Crisis

The Oaxaca State Congress has asked President Fox to send in security forces to restore public order in Oaxaca City where radical protests have been under way since May. Official talks, brokered by Government (Interior) Secretary Abascal failed this week as members of the Popular Assembly of the People of Oaxaca (APPO) and the 22nd Section of Mexico’s main education union, SNTE, rejected government terms. The resignation of Governor Ruiz has become a deal-breaker for grassroots activists who have established an alternative authority to the official state government. Oaxacan protesters formed the APPO after Ruiz sent in police to disperse education protests a month into the campaign. Complaints of police brutality ensued and defiant teachers took to the streets again in protest. On the following day, an estimated 300,000 people marched through Oaxaca City, calling for Ruiz to leave office. Since then, protests have intensified, with broad-based social groups, including medical workers, coming under the umbrella of the APPO. In August, demonstrators took four hostages to remonstrate against the killing of education activist José Jiménez Colmenares . An occupation of media outlets ensued and journalists have been the target of attacks. Reporters from broadcaster Televisa and newspaper Reforma claimed to have been shot at in the early hours of Monday morning (18 September) as they approached the ongoing blockade of Radio Oro by armed, masked militants.

Activists from the left-leaning Democratic Revolution Party (PRD) have been accused of inciting demonstrators in Oaxaca, reviving claims of electoral fraud in the 2004 vote that swept Ruiz to power. Such allegations recall the PRD’s protests on a national level, concentrated in the Federal District where they assert that runner-up presidential contender Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) is Mexico’s legitimate president . AMLO’s parallel authority, which is to be established in tandem with President-Elect Calderón’s official administration, echoes that of the APPO. The APPO has taken over several formal state functions, including transport and public order institutions, undermining the authority of Ruiz. Some sources report that the APPO has gone as far as issuing death threats against family members of the governor.

Outlook and Implications

Calderón is putting the outgoing government under pressure to resolve the Oaxacan dispute before the new National Action Party (PAN) administration is inaugurated. AMLO’s refusal to concede defeat is already undermining Calderón’s razor-thin victory and the Oaxaca crisis represents a parallel challenge, at the local level, to Mexico’s fledgling democratic institutions. Meeting initial demands with a generous pay offer was not enough to bring teachers back to work leaving the government with few cards to play and Governor Ruiz resisting all calls for his departure from office. With dialogue disrupted, President Fox is left to consider the option of sending in the Federal Preventative Police (PFP) to restore law and order in the state, which is host to one of Mexico’s largest indigenous populations. The administration will push for another round of negotiations rather than inflame the situation further by sending in the security forces.

Concerns remain that the ongoing electoral dispute in the capital could follow the same trajectory as the Oaxaca crisis. A recent survey by respected pollster Mitofsky found that two out of three Mexicans oppose AMLO’s refusal to accept Calderón’s narrow triumph on 2 July. In the same poll, 44% objected to government action to remove dug-in protesters from the capital’s centre while 46% called for their forcible removal. Polarisation of political groups is evident and was symbolised by the two-centre independence celebrations, led by the PRD government in Mexico City and by President Fox in the central town of Dolores Hidalgo, the historic heartland of the self-rule struggle. However, both AMLO and the President took action to diminish the risk of a violent stand-off between left-wing and rightist groups. While AMLO and his left-leaning Broad-Based Progressive Front (FAP) are set to establish an alternative authority, there is no indication that this will be anything more than symbolic. Mindful of ongoing threats, political and security risks remain at a pre-electoral high, but AMLO’s commitment to peaceful protest reduces the probability of an escalation of the crisis in the run-up to and aftermath of Calderón’s inauguration.

Contact: Raul Dary

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