Four days of consecutive fighting between Thai and Cambodian border forces between 4 and 7 February is the latest battle in a long-running bitter border dispute between the neighbours; while the prospects for full-scale armed conflict remain low, the intensity of the fighting and heated nationalist rhetoric have raised fears the spat could escalate.
IHS Global Insight Perspective
Significance: The border clashes are the worst the
two countries have seen for years and come amid heighted bilateral tensions
following the sentencing of two Thai nationalists for espionage and illegal
entry in Cambodia last week.
Implications: The deadly clashes illustrate the extent to
which nationalist sentiments in both countries can flare up over outstanding
border disputes and domestic political considerations take over international
and economic considerations.
Outlook: While there has been no fighting since yesterday
morning, tensions are running high on both sides of the border. While the
development of hostilities into full-scale armed conflict is in no-one's
interest and both countries have generally taken measures to prevent the
recurring dispute, it is also certain that the prospects for a permanent
solution to the dispute are also bleak with more fighting in prospect.
Heightened International, Domestic Tensions
Tensions remained high today at the disputed
Thai-Cambodia border after four days of consecutive fighting. Since last Friday
(4 February), when machine-gun fire, firing of rockets, mortars and artillery
started, at least five Cambodian nationals and two Thais, including two
civilians from both sides have died, nearly 50 others have been injured and
thousands evacuated on both sides. While the Cambodian and Thai troops have
held their fire since early yesterday morning, troops remain on alert today
according to unnamed Cambodian sources. Yesterday, the United Nations (UN)
Secretary General's office also announced the UN chief was "deeply
concerned" about the confrontation and called both sides to "exercise
maximum restraint". The call was echoed by the United States, China,
Singapore, and Malaysia. Indonesia, the current head of the Association of
Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to which both Thailand and Cambodia are
members, also called Phnom Penh and Bangkok to return to the negotiating table
over the long-running dispute.
This is the latest clash in a series of skirmishes in the
disputed border over the 11th-Century Preah Vihear temple and the ground
surrounding it, which has intensified since July 2008 when the temple was
granted UNESCO World Heritage status from Cambodia's request. The issue of
sovereignty over the temple remains an emotive and complicated issue between
Cambodia and Thailand despite a ruling in 1962 that it belongs to Cambodia, as
the dispute over it dates back to South-East Asia's pre-colonial times and the
poorly demarcated border makes any final judgments difficult.
At this point it is yet unclear what has triggered the
latest fighting. Both Thailand and Cambodia have blamed each other for starting
the firing on Friday and breaching the truce reached over the weekend . What is
clear however is that the latest spat comes amid heighted bilateral tensions
and appears to be tied to Thailand's domestic political situation following the
jailing of two key Thai activists of a nationalist movement for espionage,
illegal entry and trespassing in a military zone in Cambodia last week . The
two activists were part of a group of seven Thai nationals arrested on 29
December last year in north-western Cambodia in the Khok Sung district of Sa
Kaeo province where they were examining the border area. Their sentencing
triggered mass demonstrations in Thailand, placing increased pressure on Prime
Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva who is preparing to hold national elections later
this year and has been counting on the nationalist Yellow Shirts support to win
the tight race . While it is unclear what triggered the latest fighting, both
countries have in the past played the nationalist card in emotive border
disputes to win domestic political points and it cannot be ruled out that the
fighting is aimed at domestic audiences to demonstrate the government’s strong
stance against Cambodia as requested by the pro-establishment Yellow Shirts.
Tensions have also been running high between Thailand and
Cambodia amid the war of words over the removal of the Cambodian pagoda and the
national flag on the disputed border, as demanded by Bangkok.
Outlook and Implications
While the sporadic clashes at the bitterly disputed
border and the area around the temple are nothing new, the intensity of the
latest fighting, heated nationalist rhetoric, and underlying distrust on both
sides have raised fears the situation could spin out of control. It is however
unlikely that the clashes would develop into full-scale armed conflict, as both
countries stand to lose too much from a war, not least given their growing
economic ties and the context of ASEAN. In any case it is clear that the
conflict has once again undermined Thai-Cambodia bilateral relations and the
prospects for any long-term permanent resolution of the conflict are currently
bleak.
• Prospects for International Mediation: Cambodia
has repeatedly been seeking international arbitration for the dispute. On
Sunday (6 February), Cambodia's Prime Minister Hun Sen called the United
Nations (UN) Security Council to intervene for Thailand's "repeated acts
of aggression", which Thailand however disregarded. With Thailand against
international arbitration and having made it clear time after time that the
conflict should be resolved bilaterally, bringing a third-party negotiator in
remains a distant possibility.
• Prospects for Bilateral Agreement: Both
governments are aware of the possible negative effect the conflict has on the
investment climate and economy and have generally taken measures to prevent
events deteriorating into anything more serious. As such they are likely to
adopt conciliatory rhetoric in the short-to-medium term in particular, with
pressure coming from the international arena. Nevertheless, domestic sentiments
in both countries leave little room to manoeuvre bilaterally, meaning that
negotiations are unlikely to progress significantly. Thailand will be unable to
make concessions as any compromise will be seen as a weakness of an already
embattled government, and give further strength to the Yellow Shirted People's
Alliance for Democracy (PAD) movement. Meanwhile, Cambodia cannot be seen to
make concessions to the Thais either given the historic enmity, due to the
perceived historical domination of Cambodia by Thailand.
Looking further, prospects for resolving the dispute over
the Preah Vihear temple and territory surrounding are bleak now that the
distrust is at its heights. Sporadic disturbances are set to continue in
future.
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21/06/2006| |
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21/06/2006| |
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20/06/2006| |
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20/06/2006| |
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04/06/2006| |
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09/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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03/05/2006| |
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18/02/2006| |
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04/02/2006| |
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04/02/2006| |
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29/01/2006| |
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23/09/2005| |
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