Global Insight Perspective

Significance

Israeli forces have struck what is thought to be a bunker of the armed Hizbollah movement in the southern Beirut suburb of Burj Barajneh. The Hizbollah leadership has issued a statement denying that one of its hideouts was hit, claiming that Israeli aircraft had destroyed a mosque instead.

Implications

The continued fighting comes as Lebanon yesterday suffered the deadliest day of violence since Israel launched its offensive last week, following the capture of two of its soldiers by Hizbollah.

Outlook

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert has said that there will be no let-up in the offensive until Hizbollah returns the two Israeli soldiers and the group is disarmed.

The Israeli army early this morning struck what it says was a ”bunker” used by the Hizbollah leadership, as Israel pursues its goal of dismantling Hizbollah’s infrastructure. The group denies that the building housed its leadership, claiming instead that the site hit was a ”mosque in the process of being built”, reports Agence France-Presse (AFP). The strike nonetheless underlined Israel’s determination to target Hizbollah overall chief Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, who despite the ferocity of the Israeli military assault has vowed to continue with rocket attacks against northern Israeli cities. Another day of bloodshed yesterday saw a Hizbollah rocket kill two Arab children in the Israeli city of Nazareth.

Meanwhile, Lebanese Prime Minister Fuad Seniora has told the Financial Times newspaper that Israel’s military assault against his country, which so far has killed 300 Lebanese, could further bolster support for the group, especially among the Shi’a community, making the task of disarming it all the more complicated. Seniora appealed for an immediate ceasefire, warning of political crisis and an economic meltdown. Lebanon’s woes were further underscored as the exodus of foreign nationals gathered momentum, drying up the country’s economic lifeline at in the midst of what would be its tourism season. British warships are shuttling between the capital, Beirut, and the Cypriot port of Larnaca, in a bid to evacuate Britons. The U.S.S. Nashville has also arrived to help in the evacuation of American citizens, marking the first time that American marines have set foot on Lebanese soil since the attack – attributed to Hizbollah - against a U.S marine base in Beirut in 1983, in which 241 military personnel were killed.

Outlook and Implications

As the military crisis intensifies and international efforts towards brokering a ceasefire are proving ineffective, conditions on the ground in both Lebanon and Israel continue to deteriorate. The psychological and material costs for both countries will further undermine any prospects of a lasting peace in the region. However, international diplomatic efforts are expected to gather momentum in the coming days.

Raul Dary

24 Hartwell Ave.
Lexington, MA 02421, USA
Tel: 781.301.9314
Cel: 857.222.0556
Fax: 781.301.9416
raul.dary@globalinsight.com

www.globalinsight.com and www.wmrc.com