Global Insight Perspective

Significance

A tentative overnight ceasefire has been agreed between Hamas and Fatah following a weekend (16-17 December) of intense unrest that followed President Mahmoud Abbas' controversial announcement in favour of dissolving the current Hamas-led parliament and government and calling impromptu presidential and legislative polls.

Implications

Given the publicly-hostile relationship between the two factions and the simmering unrest among Palestinians over increasing poverty and international isolation, that the president's call ignited an unusually violent reaction from supporters of both Hamas and Fatah was far from surprising. What was surprising, however, was Abbas' willingness to override Hamas' concerns by forcing through a plan, which, if implemented, will destroy any semblance of remaining political unity in the Palestinian territories.

Outlook

The announcement by the president carries significant political risks. Firstly, it remains a matter of debate whether Abbas even has the constitutional right to call national polls unilaterally without the backing of parliament. Secondly—and more crucially for his Fatah party—there is little guarantee that Hamas will in fact lose the next ballot and, considering that the movement may run for the presidency also, it may potentially win executive powers, in the process dealing a fatal blow to Abbas as well as his international backers.

Walking a Political Tightrope

Having been in power for less than 10 months, the Hamas government could not have imagined how much of a stir its election success would cause both domestically and internationally. The movement's reputation as an anti-Israeli resistance organisation was certainly crucial in helping it to trounce the once-powerful Fatah party of the then-president, Yasser Arafat, and the current Palestinian head of state, Mahmoud Abbas. Given Fatah's own infamous reputation as a corruption-ridden and power-hungry political outfit, there was little surprise within Palestinian circles when the faction was finally booted out of power after having been at the helm officially for more than a decade. Hamas's domestic popularity aside, however, its powerful anti-Israeli agenda has proved a powerful bar to wider international recognition. Since coming to power, the Hamas-led Palestinian Authority (PA) has faced its most severe political and economic crisis to date, to the point where the Palestinian social and welfare infrastructure is on the point of collapse following debilitating international financial sanctions. In the midst of the economic crisis, old Fatah hands have found an appropriate opportunity to seize power back from Hamas.

The Hamas-Fatah rivalry at its most fundamental is simply one over power. The irony over the international community's boycott of the Hamas government will not be lost on the movement's leaders. Under Arafat's reign, the United States and other Western powers sought to isolate the patriarchal leader by seeking a reduction in the president's powers. A new post of prime minister was established in 2003, in the hope that executive power would now be shared with the then-appointed premier (and now president) Abbas. Following Arafat's death, Abbas assumed ever-greater authority and was finally elected president in 2005. Hamas's spectacular parliamentary victory one year later suddenly elevated to the premier's post a movement whose ideas were far from amenable to Western powers. A president with weakened powers would now be sharing power with a premier with strong popular backing and constitutional rights. Unfortunately, he belonged to a movement not to the international community's liking.

Following months of global isolation and growing unrest within the Occupied Territories, Abbas has finally decided that the only way to resolve the worsening crisis is to sack the Hamas administration in its entirety, dissolve parliament and call early presidential and parliamentary polls. The president's international backers—including British Prime Minister Tony Blair, who is meeting Abbas later today during a farewell tour that seeks to re-establish momentum in the now near-dead peace process—have welcomed Abbas's announcement. Given that many within the Palestinian territories hold the British leader in anything but high esteem, Abbas may find that such international endorsement may in fact backfire in the longer term. The need for elections, however, was justified on the grounds that this was the only means by which the Palestinians could end their mounting problems. "To break the vicious circle and prevent our lives from deteriorating further and our cause from eroding, I have decided to call early presidential and legislative elections. Let the people have their say and decide," Abbas said on Saturday (16 December). The announcement was greeted with a chorus of strong protest from the Hamas leadership, which described the election plan as a "coup d'état against the will of the Palestinian people".

Fomenting Deeper Unrest

The political disunity among Palestinians is certainly in desperate need of a resolution but the presidential threats against the Hamas government have intensified unrest within the Gaza Strip, in particular, to levels not witnessed for many years. The past few days have been a case in point. Hamas officials have accused Fatah-led security forces of seeking to assassinate both Prime Minister Ismail Haniya and Foreign Minister Mahmoud Zahar. The premier's convoy was attacked on Friday (15 December) by gunmen after Haniya returned to Gaza from a foreign trip. The premier's bodyguard was killed during the firefight. Unidentified gunmen also attacked Zahar's convoy yesterday but the foreign minister escaped unhurt. Fatah officials meanwhile announced that a colonel in the Palestinian national security service—and a member of the party—was kidnapped and killed yesterday. Four Palestinians, including bystanders, have been killed in the worsening violence between the two camps amid accusations and counter-accusations over which faction is responsible for the violence. Haniya offered his strongest assessment of Fatah's action during a cabinet session in Gaza yesterday, during which the premier declared the president's election call both "unconstitutional" and one designed to "cause confusion".

Outlook and Implications

Leaders from both Hamas and Fatah have agreed to a temporary truce this morning, following days of intense clashes. Given the growing fears of an all-out war between the two factions, a ceasefire will offer valuable breathing space for Palestinian leaders to evaluate their respective positions. Despite Abbas's decision to call for early polls, the president has not announced an official date. This is being viewed by many within the Palestinian territories as a pressure tactic against Hamas for the movement to agree to a government of national unity and thereby avoid impromptu elections. Hamas, however, appears not to be falling for the bait. Indeed, the movement is holding firmly to its position that an election is both unconstitutional and a recipe for civil war among Palestinians. Such strong language demonstrates a deep animosity between Hamas and Fatah that shows little sign of being overcome.

Having threatened elections, however, Abbas is playing a very risky political game. Earlier in the year, the president announced he would not seek another term in office—which, if true, would count the relatively-popular head of state out of the forthcoming presidential ballot. Were that to transpire, Fatah would be left without a strong enough candidate to challenge Hamas for the top political post. The ruling movement is contemplating nominating Haniya for the presidential election. The current premier has a strong popular following that could potentially be translated into an election victory. With Hamas far from politically damaged after almost 10 months in office, the movement is certainly not out of the running for victory in another parliamentary ballot either. With one eye on resolving the internal political spat and the other bent on ending the Palestinian international political isolation, Abbas's election call carries the very real possibility of sending his Fatah party into political oblivion and Hamas assuming complete executive power. How the international community would react to such an outcome can, for now, only be surmised.

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