Mudslinging Ahead of Polls

Yesterday Ukrainian prime minister and presidential hopeful Yulia Tymoshenko of the Yulia Tymoshenko Bloc (BYT) further hyped up the already tense atmosphere in the country by threatening her opponent Viktor Yanukovych with mass protests if he tried to falsify the elections. She further accused her opponent, the leader of the left-of-centre opposition Party of Regions (PoR), of plotting violence by amassing scores of pro-PoR fighters around the Ukrainian capital Kiev to be called into action if Yanukovych fails to win in the 7 February run–off elections. During a 90-minute television broadcast, Tymoshenko took advantage of her opponent's refusal to appear in the pre-election debate and launched a string of accusations aimed at the PoR leader. She called Yanukovych a coward, an insult to Ukrainians if he is elected as president, and called upon Ukrainians "not to allow Yanukovych to rape democracy, elections and the country". Yanukovych has thus far chosen to ignore most of Tymoshenko's attacks by saying that she is "in a difficult psychological state" and that her "hysterical lies" and threats of new revolution are only acts of desperation.

The current president Viktor Yushchenko, ousted in the first round of voting on 17 January with a humiliating 5.58% of the vote, has banned all political parties from Maidan, the famous central square in Kiev and the birthplace of 2004-2005 Orange Revolution that brought Yushchenko and Tymoshenko to power. Furthermore, today, Yushchenko endorsed a PoR-sponsored bill only requiring a simple majority [instead of the two-thirds majority] in the election committee in order to get ballot counting after elections under way. Yanukovych explained the necessity of the bill as a measure to try to prevent Tymoshenko's representatives from blocking the committee's work by not showing up. While the bill is not likely to have a major impact on the vote–counting process, Tymoshenko will use it in case she loses, as an undemocratic measure and grounds for disputing the vote results.

"Yanu-shenko's Victory…"

During a virtual press conference at the U.S. embassy in Kiev attended by the Ukrainian presidential staff officials, two former U.S. ambassadors to Ukraine and the U.S. State Department adviser on Eastern Europe, Samuel Chapan, the latter stated: "Yanushenko's victory should not scare anyone". The mispronunciation of the name of the possible winner of the polls was most likely an innocent mistake where the two names of the candidates were combined but ironically it also represents the lack of distinct ideological differences between Yanukovych and Tymoshenko. Even in terms of their earlier lives and political careers, their paths have not been that different. Both of them had trouble with the law and spent time in prison—Yanukovych was imprisoned twice as a youth as a member of a criminal gang while Tymoshenko and her husband spent a month and a year respectively in prison after being found guilty of gas smuggling in 2000. Both presidential hopefuls had served as prime minister in Yushchenko's government. Despite Tymoshenko's desire to portray Yanukovych as a representative of eastern Ukrainian oligarchs led by the richest Ukrainian businessman, Rinat Akhmetov, she has her own close ties with oligarchs, such as Triel Vasadze, Alexander Feldman and Konstantin Zhevago, all operating in eastern Ukraine .

Despite the widely held opinion that Tymoshenko is a pro–Western candidate while Yanukovych is the Kremlin's man, the two candidates have rather similar foreign policies. While Yanukovych has always kept to his idea of keeping Ukraine outside any political bloc but with good ties with traditionally friendly Russia; Tymoshenko has changed her colours a number of times. Thus in 2007 in her interview with Foreign Policy magazine she described Russia's foreign policy as imperial but changed her stance dramatically ahead of this election. The Ukrainian "Iron Lady" in another foreign press interview at the end of 2009 backtracked once again, stating that Russia was misunderstood when it was accused of possessing imperial ambitions, and that the West should rather look at Russian foreign policy as that of a large country regaining its confidence and place in world affairs. She further earned herself the name of "Gas Queen" after she managed to seal a gas deal with the powerful Russian prime minister Vladimir Putin in November 2009, avoiding another gas war and securing the smooth gas supply from Russia to Europe over the winter of 2009/10. Ironically, Tymoshenko is more acceptable for Moscow in terms of gas politics with Russia than Yanukovych, given that the PoR leader has indicated that he would consider revisiting Tymoshenko's deal with Putin as he thinks that Ukrainian interests were scarified in the deal to gain voter support ahead of the election.

Both candidates pledge economic recovery, job creation, 5-10% tax cuts for small businesses, fight against oligarchs, creation of professional army, good relations with the West and Russia and neither mentions membership to NATO. Perhaps tellingly, both Yanukovych and Tymoshenko have hired U.S. press-relations specialists to help them. One major difference between the two candidates however, is Tymoshenko's relentless drive for power.

Outlook and Implications

It is difficult to predict who will win in the election. Although Yanukovych has a 10% lead with 35.32% votes in the first round of elections Tymoshenko still has an opportunity to stage a comeback. Her task however is complicated, as neither of the two failed presidential candidates who hold third and fourth positions—independent candidate and billionaire Serhiy Tyhypko with 13.05% and Arseniy Yatsenyuk of Our Ukraine-People's Defence, with 6.69% of votes—refused to give their votes to either of the candidates. Given the lack of clear policy differences between Yanukovych and Tymoshenko as well as general apathy among Ukrainian voters with politicians and their recycled policies, many supporters of the failed candidates will not participate in the elections. Ironically the outcome may be decided by a "hate vote" of those who would make an extra effort to go to the ballot box and vote against the candidate that they would least like to see in the presidential post. Both Tymoshenko and Yanukovych have sufficient "non-supporters" in this sense.

The gap in the election results is likely to be narrow and it is safe to conclude that if Tymoshenko is not elected she will most certainly try to call for an uprising to support her policy of a "New Path for Ukraine". The trouble is that there is nothing new in her policies or her drive for power.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)