The narrow approval of new Taoiseach (Prime Minister) Brian Cowen in the Dáíl (parliament) yesterday symbolises a major change in the Irish political landscape. After 11 years as prime minister, Bertie Ahern stepped down on Tuesday (6 May) in an attempt to shore up public support for the government as it responds to the difficult challenges ahead . Cowen has had a limited amount of time to prepare for his new position as Ahern only announced his resignation in early April. However, he can rely on his first-rate experience in the areas of most concern among the electorate right now—namely economic growth, public funding, and the looming referendum on the European Union (EU) Reform Treaty. Ahern has announced that he will remain in politics as deputy to the Dáíl, giving him the opportunity to continue influencing policy-making via the backdoor in the almost hung parliament. Meanwhile, Cowen has made significant changes to the cabinet in the hope that it will see him through his tenure until 2012, notably the installation of two of his closest allies in vital positions. The greatest surprise was the sidelining of both Ahern and Micheál Martin for the two most influential positions, which instead went to Mary Coughlan (Tánaiste) and Brian Lenihan (finance minister). Cowen's continued support for Mary Harney despite her recent troubles gives her the opportunity to turn around the ailing public health sector.

Cowen Looking to Emulate Ahern

Ahern's ability to deflect severe criticism and remain in power for so long earned him the nickname "Teflon Taoiseach". Cowen will be hoping that his tenure proves similarly durable and that he can ensure Fianna Fáil's (FF) continued dominance of Irish politics, but he faces a number of challenges:

·                  Economic Downturn: The Irish economic boom is rapidly coming to an end, with consumer confidence and spending plunging, house prices falling, and unemployment rates rising. Cowen's 2008 budget clearly reflected this economic contraction, to the dismay of the opposition parties; new Finance Minister Brian Lenihan's task now is to continue the budgetary austerity measures set out by Cowen to fend off a rise in inflation.

·                  Public Spending Cuts: The economic slump has resulted in tighter government funds, but the demands on public finances from social partners and the wider public alike are still pressing. Indeed, with years of lower economic growth rates ahead, the public is asking for more support from the government. Cowen, however, is keen to ensure continued high rates of foreign direct investment (FDI) by resisting wage hikes. The budgetary austerity measures of Lenihan and his close co-operation with Trade and Employment Minister Mary Coughlan could ensure that criticism of the ailing public services—strained by cuts in government spending and a simultaneous rise in demand following large immigration—is held in check.

·                  EU Reform Treaty: Contrary to many media claims, the looming referendum on the EU Reform Treaty on 12 June will not make or break Cowen. Rather, the domestic woes mentioned above will count for more. However, a “no“ vote would force the government to divide its energies between the challenging domestic problems and sorting out the public's grievances with the EU.

·                  Public Healthcare: To date, this has been the most difficult of all ministries to manage given lagging reforms and recent scandals, which almost cost Health Minister Mary Harney her post late last year. During the years of economic boom, the health system benefited from an increase in funds, but the system nevertheless remains in dire need of reform if it is to cope with the strains placed on it by an ageing society and migration.

·                  Internet Access: For a country as wealthy as Ireland, Internet access is disappointingly low. Internet access is all the more important as it frees up public services provision by making many services and documents available online. Over the past three years, it has improved on this score, however, and it is close to reaching the EU average.

Outlook and Implications

The signs are good for Cowen as he attempts to steer the government through to the next general election in 2012. Cowen's previous experience—and notably his role as chief architect of the 2008 budget—ensures that he has a sound understanding of both foreign and fiscal policy, while his no-nonsense attitude could guide him through the muddy waters of coalition building. Furthermore, the appointment of close allies Brian Lenihan and Mary Coughlan as finance minister and trade and employment minister, respectively, and his support for troubled health minister and leader of the Progressive Democrats (PD), Mary Harney, should ensure smoother policy-making.

However, Cowen could lack support outside the cabinet. Given the downturn of the economy and the confusion and scepticism surrounding the EU Reform Treaty, Cowen will need to fend off both social partners opposed to the government's policies and opposition parties keen to stir up anxiety and discontent among the electorate. Cowen will need to tread carefully and present the government's achievements in clear terms while instilling confidence in the direction the government is taking in areas that matter most to the electorate: financial affairs and health. Similar to U.K. Prime Minister Gordon Brown, Cowen needs to adapt swiftly from being an expert on financial affairs to becoming an inspiring and media-friendly leader of government. Cowen could start this process today at his first high-level meeting at the U.S.-Northern Irish investment conference in Belfast, which will also be attended by Brown.

The public has not forgotten about Bertie Ahern, with many resenting the fact that a corruption affair resulted in his downfall. Cowen now has to show that he can fill Ahern's shoes quickly. If the EU referendum were to succeed on 12 June, Cowen would be off to a flying start; if not, he could still win the public over during the course of the year before another referendum. The term "Teflon Taoiseach" may have been coined for Ahern, but Cowen now has the chance to take over this title in the years to come.