Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh arrived on his first high-profile visit to the United States yesterday in what is seen as a further sign of strengthening relations between the two states. On his first full day of his three-day-visit, Singh is set to hold talks with U.S. business leaders today, while he will meet Obama at the White House tomorrow. While a range of substantial issues are set to be discussed during his visit, the core focus of his trip appears to be less substantial in nature rather than aimed at reassuring each other about mutual recognition and respect after Obama left out India in his Asia tour that he concluded last week.

U.S.-India ties, that were once frosty during the Cold War, warmed significantly in recent years, with the most recent highlight in this respect having been U.S. secretary of state Hillary Clinton's five-day-visit to India in July this year, where she met with Singh and her counterpart, Foreign Minister S M Krishna, among others. Throughout this visit, she highlighted the already strong relations between the two countries and emphasised the willingness to strengthen relations in a number of areas and to uplift U.S.-India relations to a new level in what she called "U.S.-India 3.0" .

Substantial Issues Likely to Feature in Talks

During Singh's visit, substantial talks are likely to revolve around what Clinton has termed the "five pillars" of U.S.-India relations, broadly encompassing strategic co-operation, science, energy and climate change, education and development, and trade issues. However, while arriving in the United States yesterday, Singh also made it clear that India wants to have a say in broader U.S. foreign policy matters in the South Asia region, urging Obama to follow through with fighting extremism in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Fight Against Extremism in Afghanistan and Pakistan

Ahead of his arrival in the United States yesterday, Singh told reporters of the Washington Post and Newsweek that "it is very important that both the United States and the global community stay engaged in Afghanistan", adding that civil war was likely to ensue in Afghanistan and Pakistan were the United States to withdraw from there. Singh also pressed the U.S. administration to move Pakistani leaders to clamp down hard against extremists in the country, indicating once more that India was not satisfied yet with Pakistan's actions in this regard after the November 2008 Mumbai bombings.

Singh's efforts for India to have a say in the U.S.-led global fight against extremism comes as U.S. engagement in this regard is undergoing significant change, with Obama currently weighing various strategy options for the war in Afghanistan that may include significantly beefed-up troops numbers to be sent there. Even before this, the U.S.-led fight against extremism has experienced significant changes since the President Barack Obama administration assumed responsibility of office earlier this year, with the United States having exercised substantial efforts to pressure both Afghanistan and Pakistan to co-operate more with one another, and to do more to address the pervasive issue of extremism in their countries. In this respect it has repeatedly been argued by various actors within the U.S. administration that India has an "important role" to play in this. On the one hand, the United States has put pressure on Pakistan to re-define its main threat to internal security, and indeed the Pakistani government has stressed more than once that extremists, not India, now constitute the country's main threat. Such a re-definition fits U.S. interests very well as this in theory allows Pakistan to re-deploy troops from the Indian border to the northwest of the country, where the Pakistani military is currently locked in intense battles in South Waziristan with members of the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), an umbrella organisation for various Taliban factions in Pakistan.

While apparently the resumption of the halted peace process between India and Pakistan is of utmost importance to U.S. efforts in the region, it is unlikely that Obama will exercise much pressure on Singh to achieve this. As could already be seen from Clinton's five-day visit to India in July this year, the United States has largely shied away from doing so, merely urging Pakistan to bring those responsible for the Mumbai attacks to justice, a precondition that India set for reconsidering peace talks with Pakistan.

During his visit, Singh is also likely to want to discuss anti-terrorism co-operation between U.S. and Indian intelligence agencies, particularly after Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) chief Leon E Panetta paid a visit to India last week in an apparent bid to smooth out issues in this regard.

Nuclear and Defence Co-Operation

Prior to his visit to the United States, Singh also expressed hope for his visit to facilitate the completion of final technicalities and hurdles for Indo-U.S. nuclear co-operation, in particular regarding an agreement concerning the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel. The Indo-U.S. nuclear deal that allows for this co-operation was signed in October 2008 and has probably been the most-discussed issue concerning U.S.-India relations. This landmark deal envisages Indian access to U.S. technology and atomic energy, with India allowing inspections by personnel of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of its civilian nuclear sites (a deal that excludes military nuclear sites). Civilian nuclear co-operation between the two countries featured prominently on Clinton's July visit to India, where the two countries struck deals paving the way for major U.S. investments in the country's lucrative nuclear and defence sectors. Potentially, the deals could mean billions of dollars of exports in military hardware and nuclear reactors for U.S. firms. Of primary importance in this respect has been the signing of the "end-use agreement", the India-specific Technology Safeguards Agreement (TSA), a key requirement by U.S. law for exporting sophisticated weaponry in return for safeguards assurances. With the U.S. firms now competing for projects worth more than US$18 billion, defence co-operation is an issue that is almost certain to come up with Singh's talks with business leaders in Washington today.

Unlikely to Feature Prominently: Climate Change

One of the key issues of contention between the United States and India has been the issue of climate change and, in particular, the question of responsibilities in terms of carbon emission cuts. India has argued that the United States should take a guiding role in this respect owing to the country's "historical responsibility" on the subject, and refuses to commit to carbon emissions cuts itself as this would put India at a great disadvantage in terms of economic growth. On this front, past meetings between the two sides have yielded no dividends, with India still insisting not to sign up to any commitment on this issue. India is one of a number of developing countries that refuse to compromise on this issue, which complicates efforts at arriving at a compromise that would pave the way towards a new international agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol that is set to expire by 2012. Given the little headway that has been made on this issue, it is unlikely that this issue will feature prominently in talks with Obama.

Outlook and Implications

Indo-U.S. relations are warming rapidly, with initial anxiety in India over whether Obama would show the same kind of commitment to the two countries' bilateral relations as his predecessor, George W. Bush did, largely overcome. The issues that define the current state of the U.S.-India relationship are diverse and of crucial importance to both states, and it is widely expected that Singh's trip to the United States will give a further boost to the two countries' bilateral relations.

Global Insight (Reino Unido)